urkey wants to normalize relations with Armenia, while Russia attempts to preserve its influence over the Caucasus nation. Armenian officials have signaled they are willing to distance themselves from the Kremlin, but the small country remains firmly within Russia’s geopolitical orbit.
Ukraine recently accused Armenia of helping Russia to evade sanctions which were imposed on the Kremlin in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. According to Defense Intelligence of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, since the beginning of Russian large-scale aggression against Ukraine, some 85,000 Russian citizens and 113 IT companies have moved to Armenia. More importantly, the landlocked nation was among the first countries to start paying for Russian natural gas in rubles, a clear indication that Yerevan does not intend to join Western states that rejected Moscow’s new payment terms.
Furthermore, the Armenian delegation at the United Nations General Assembly did not take part in the April 7 vote that resulted in Russia’s expulsion from the UN Human Rights Council, which drew criticism among Armenian opposition political parties. Coincidentally or not, only two days before the UN vote, a Russian delegation comprising Crimean officials visited Armenia and discussed business ties with the Caucasus nation.
It is worth remembering that in 2014, Armenia`s then President Serzh Sargsyan reportedly supported a controversial referendum in Crimea that led to Moscow’s annexation of the peninsula. Although Yerevan never recognized the incorporation of Crimea into the Russian Federation, the Crimean delegation’s visit to Armenia perfectly illustrates the fact that Armenian officials have very little room to maneuver, and that the country remains heavily dependent on Russia.
Russia is Armenia’s biggest trading partner, and Yerevan is a member of the Moscow-led Eurasian Union and the Collective Treaty Security Organization. However, the United States Embassy in Yerevan has warned the country’s authorities of possible “negative economic consequences” if Armenia pursues cooperative deals with Russian military-intelligence companies. Thus, it is not surprising that Yerevan has joined other regional actors in the South Caucasus in trying to balance its relations with Moscow with a desire to support Ukrainian territorial integrity and sovereignty.
At the same time, Armenian authorities have been trying to normalize relations with Turkey, despite mass protests in Yerevan where the opposition claims that such an action would weaken the country’s sovereignty. Reports suggest that despite this opposition, Armenian and Turkish special representatives have agreed on May 3 to go ahead with the process of normalization of bilateral relations without preconditions. Despite this apparent progress, some analysts believe that the two countries will not normalize their relations before Armenia and Azerbaijan sign a peace deal.
Such a peace deal could be possible. Baku has already proposed a five-point plan to reach a sustainable peace agreement with Yerevan. The plan calls on each side to recognize the other’s territorial integrity, abstain from threats, demarcate the border, and open transportation links. Armenia seems to be interested in normalization of relations with its energy-rich neighbor, although Yerevan reportedly insists on reaching a deal on the future of Nagorno-Karabakh first. The two countries fought a 44-day war over the mountainous region – which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan although it has been under Armenian control for over two decades. As a result of the conflict, Baku restored its sovereignty over large portions of Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as surrounding areas, and considers that issue resolved.
There are indications that Armenia is ready to recognize Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh. According to the country’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Yerevan’s strategy in the short, medium, and long terms is to “ensure a situation or solution whereby the people of Artsakh (Armenian name for the mountainous region) will continue to live in Artsakh.” The very fact that Pashinyn did not specify what kind of status for the region would be acceptable for Armenia leaves room for Yerevan to try to reach a compromise with Baku, which is something that Armenian opposition firmly opposes.
Although Pashinyan reportedly agrees to normalize ties with Azerbaijan, the ongoing protests in Armenia could have an impact on the future of relations between the two countries. The opposition factions aim to overthrow Pashinyan, and some Azerbaijani experts believe that Russia is behind mass protests in Armenia.
“After the meeting between the President of Azerbaijan and the Prime Minister of Armenia in Brussels, Armenian Foreign Minister and Nikol Pashinyan himself made visits to Moscow. During those negotiations, it became clear that Russia was dissatisfied with the meeting in Brussels and its results”, said the head of the Azerbaijani analytical center Atlas, Elkhan Shahinoglu.
From the Kremlin’s perspective, if a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan is signed in Brussels, rather than in Moscow, it will be interpreted as another Russian geopolitical defeat. That is one of the reasons why Russia desperately seeks to preserve the role of a mediator in the conflict.
On May 13, foreign ministers of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan are expected to meet in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, to discuss relations between the two archenemies. However, Russia’s isolation in the global arena will undoubtedly have an impact on its positions in the South Caucasus, including Armenia which hosts some 3,000 Russian troops. That is why fears in Yerevan are growing that Turkey will eventually increase its influence in Yerevan, and even crowd Russia out of the region – a move which would force Armenia to make significant concessions to Ankara and its ally Azerbaijan.
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Russia Struggles to Keep Armenia in its Orbit
Mount Ararat, Yerevan, Armenia. Photo by Artak Petrosyan via Unsplash.
May 11, 2022
Armenia has been deep in Russia's geopolitical orbit for decades and that's unlikely to change anytime soon. However, there are indications that Armenia is seeking to normalize and strengthen its relationships with other governments and create some distance with the Kremlin, writes Nikola Mikovic.
T
urkey wants to normalize relations with Armenia, while Russia attempts to preserve its influence over the Caucasus nation. Armenian officials have signaled they are willing to distance themselves from the Kremlin, but the small country remains firmly within Russia’s geopolitical orbit.
Ukraine recently accused Armenia of helping Russia to evade sanctions which were imposed on the Kremlin in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. According to Defense Intelligence of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, since the beginning of Russian large-scale aggression against Ukraine, some 85,000 Russian citizens and 113 IT companies have moved to Armenia. More importantly, the landlocked nation was among the first countries to start paying for Russian natural gas in rubles, a clear indication that Yerevan does not intend to join Western states that rejected Moscow’s new payment terms.
Furthermore, the Armenian delegation at the United Nations General Assembly did not take part in the April 7 vote that resulted in Russia’s expulsion from the UN Human Rights Council, which drew criticism among Armenian opposition political parties. Coincidentally or not, only two days before the UN vote, a Russian delegation comprising Crimean officials visited Armenia and discussed business ties with the Caucasus nation.
It is worth remembering that in 2014, Armenia`s then President Serzh Sargsyan reportedly supported a controversial referendum in Crimea that led to Moscow’s annexation of the peninsula. Although Yerevan never recognized the incorporation of Crimea into the Russian Federation, the Crimean delegation’s visit to Armenia perfectly illustrates the fact that Armenian officials have very little room to maneuver, and that the country remains heavily dependent on Russia.
Russia is Armenia’s biggest trading partner, and Yerevan is a member of the Moscow-led Eurasian Union and the Collective Treaty Security Organization. However, the United States Embassy in Yerevan has warned the country’s authorities of possible “negative economic consequences” if Armenia pursues cooperative deals with Russian military-intelligence companies. Thus, it is not surprising that Yerevan has joined other regional actors in the South Caucasus in trying to balance its relations with Moscow with a desire to support Ukrainian territorial integrity and sovereignty.
At the same time, Armenian authorities have been trying to normalize relations with Turkey, despite mass protests in Yerevan where the opposition claims that such an action would weaken the country’s sovereignty. Reports suggest that despite this opposition, Armenian and Turkish special representatives have agreed on May 3 to go ahead with the process of normalization of bilateral relations without preconditions. Despite this apparent progress, some analysts believe that the two countries will not normalize their relations before Armenia and Azerbaijan sign a peace deal.
Such a peace deal could be possible. Baku has already proposed a five-point plan to reach a sustainable peace agreement with Yerevan. The plan calls on each side to recognize the other’s territorial integrity, abstain from threats, demarcate the border, and open transportation links. Armenia seems to be interested in normalization of relations with its energy-rich neighbor, although Yerevan reportedly insists on reaching a deal on the future of Nagorno-Karabakh first. The two countries fought a 44-day war over the mountainous region – which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan although it has been under Armenian control for over two decades. As a result of the conflict, Baku restored its sovereignty over large portions of Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as surrounding areas, and considers that issue resolved.
There are indications that Armenia is ready to recognize Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh. According to the country’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Yerevan’s strategy in the short, medium, and long terms is to “ensure a situation or solution whereby the people of Artsakh (Armenian name for the mountainous region) will continue to live in Artsakh.” The very fact that Pashinyn did not specify what kind of status for the region would be acceptable for Armenia leaves room for Yerevan to try to reach a compromise with Baku, which is something that Armenian opposition firmly opposes.
Although Pashinyan reportedly agrees to normalize ties with Azerbaijan, the ongoing protests in Armenia could have an impact on the future of relations between the two countries. The opposition factions aim to overthrow Pashinyan, and some Azerbaijani experts believe that Russia is behind mass protests in Armenia.
“After the meeting between the President of Azerbaijan and the Prime Minister of Armenia in Brussels, Armenian Foreign Minister and Nikol Pashinyan himself made visits to Moscow. During those negotiations, it became clear that Russia was dissatisfied with the meeting in Brussels and its results”, said the head of the Azerbaijani analytical center Atlas, Elkhan Shahinoglu.
From the Kremlin’s perspective, if a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan is signed in Brussels, rather than in Moscow, it will be interpreted as another Russian geopolitical defeat. That is one of the reasons why Russia desperately seeks to preserve the role of a mediator in the conflict.
On May 13, foreign ministers of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan are expected to meet in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, to discuss relations between the two archenemies. However, Russia’s isolation in the global arena will undoubtedly have an impact on its positions in the South Caucasus, including Armenia which hosts some 3,000 Russian troops. That is why fears in Yerevan are growing that Turkey will eventually increase its influence in Yerevan, and even crowd Russia out of the region – a move which would force Armenia to make significant concessions to Ankara and its ally Azerbaijan.
