.

Tensions are rising alarmingly between China and Vietnam over the issue of territorial waters in the South China Sea.  The latest flare up in hostilities began May 26th, when Hanoi accused a Chinese patrol of cutting the cables of a Vietnamese ship conducting seismic research 200 nautical miles off the Vietnamese coast.  Since the initial incident, other accusations have sprung up, including the Chinese accusing Vietnamese patrol boats of chasing a fishing boat.

The South China Sea is one of the most disputed areas of water in the world, with up to five different countries laying claim to some or all.  The otherwise unremarkable bit of water also hosts an important fishing industry, and is one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world, especially for energy resources.  Up to 80 percent of China’s energy imports come through these shipping lanes, as does all the oil from the Middle East bound for Japan. There is also speculation, so far unproven, that there are significant oil and gas deposits below the ocean floor.

Central to the conflict is the United Nations Conventions on the Law of the Sea, established in 1982, that provides for Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), sea zones extending 200 nautical miles from a nation’s coast that are provided with special rights over exploration and the use of marine resources.  However, these EEZs occasionally overlap, as they do in the South China Sea, leading to conflicts over control of the resources.  In 2002, the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) tried to establish a tribunal in which to discuss disputes and come to some sort of agreement, with the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, but it has been ineffective in getting China to act accordingly.
At the root of the recent conflicts are one nation’s defense concerns and another’s territorial claims.  The Chinese government views the South China Sea as a “core interest” of national defense, and has complained in the past about fears of encirclement.  In its response to the May 26th dispute, China also warned other nations to stop all mineral exploration in the area, hinting that the dispute may actually be about China’s interest in the possible energy resources in the area.  China has been a net importer of energy resources since 1993, and is searching for new energy markets to fuel its growing economy.

Vietnam’s Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung said Vietnam’s claims to the South China Sea, as well as the Paracel and Spratly Islands in those waters, are incontestable, echoing Vietnam’s continuing fears about the integrity of its sovereignty against the power of its much larger neighbor.  The May 26th incident mirrors an event last year, when the Vietnamese cried foul about a Chinese boat doing seismic research off of Paracel, stating that it was a violation of their sovereignty.  In response to the recent dispute, rare protests have broken out in Vietnam, where the communist government generally does not allow open dissent, and hackers defaced pages run by each other’s governments.  Vietnam, in an apparent show of force, chose last week to conduct live-fire military drills, and shortly after issued guidelines to the populations about who would be exempt in the event of a military draft being issued.

China is taking an increasingly aggressive approach to its influence in the region and to issues it declares to be part of its national defense.  Japan has accused China of using territorial waters to spy on the island nation, and China recently announced the development of its first aircraft carrier, signaling its intention to use its economic growth to fund a program of coercive diplomacy.  The warning to other nations to cease mineral exploration in the region is coupled with China’s insistence on approaching the issue through bilateral negotiations only.  Through such bilateral exploration agreements, China plans to partner with each country that has a claim to territory in the South China Sea, and therefore, exert territorial control and possibly find supplies of oil and gas to fuel its industrial sector, reducing its dependence on imported energy resources.

China’s actions are producing a shift in the balance of power in the region, according to some experts.  The region’s smaller countries have always had touchy relations with their much larger neighbor, but as China’s economic power has begun to be translated into more aggressive trading approaches and military power, even nations that have free-trade agreements with China are growing more afraid and more aware of the gap between China’s charming rhetoric and assertive actions.  As a result, they appear to be banding together more through ASEAN in order to balance against Chinese power. Indonesia's Dr. Dewi Fortuna Anwar, Research Professor and Deputy Chairman for Social Sciences and Humanities at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences, notes, "South East Asians were, and continue to be, fully aware of both the inherent promises and dangers that China presents, whose traditional symbol is after all a dragon."

The views presented in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the views of any other organization.

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The Dragon of the South China Sea

June 23, 2011

Tensions are rising alarmingly between China and Vietnam over the issue of territorial waters in the South China Sea.  The latest flare up in hostilities began May 26th, when Hanoi accused a Chinese patrol of cutting the cables of a Vietnamese ship conducting seismic research 200 nautical miles off the Vietnamese coast.  Since the initial incident, other accusations have sprung up, including the Chinese accusing Vietnamese patrol boats of chasing a fishing boat.

The South China Sea is one of the most disputed areas of water in the world, with up to five different countries laying claim to some or all.  The otherwise unremarkable bit of water also hosts an important fishing industry, and is one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world, especially for energy resources.  Up to 80 percent of China’s energy imports come through these shipping lanes, as does all the oil from the Middle East bound for Japan. There is also speculation, so far unproven, that there are significant oil and gas deposits below the ocean floor.

Central to the conflict is the United Nations Conventions on the Law of the Sea, established in 1982, that provides for Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), sea zones extending 200 nautical miles from a nation’s coast that are provided with special rights over exploration and the use of marine resources.  However, these EEZs occasionally overlap, as they do in the South China Sea, leading to conflicts over control of the resources.  In 2002, the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) tried to establish a tribunal in which to discuss disputes and come to some sort of agreement, with the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, but it has been ineffective in getting China to act accordingly.
At the root of the recent conflicts are one nation’s defense concerns and another’s territorial claims.  The Chinese government views the South China Sea as a “core interest” of national defense, and has complained in the past about fears of encirclement.  In its response to the May 26th dispute, China also warned other nations to stop all mineral exploration in the area, hinting that the dispute may actually be about China’s interest in the possible energy resources in the area.  China has been a net importer of energy resources since 1993, and is searching for new energy markets to fuel its growing economy.

Vietnam’s Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung said Vietnam’s claims to the South China Sea, as well as the Paracel and Spratly Islands in those waters, are incontestable, echoing Vietnam’s continuing fears about the integrity of its sovereignty against the power of its much larger neighbor.  The May 26th incident mirrors an event last year, when the Vietnamese cried foul about a Chinese boat doing seismic research off of Paracel, stating that it was a violation of their sovereignty.  In response to the recent dispute, rare protests have broken out in Vietnam, where the communist government generally does not allow open dissent, and hackers defaced pages run by each other’s governments.  Vietnam, in an apparent show of force, chose last week to conduct live-fire military drills, and shortly after issued guidelines to the populations about who would be exempt in the event of a military draft being issued.

China is taking an increasingly aggressive approach to its influence in the region and to issues it declares to be part of its national defense.  Japan has accused China of using territorial waters to spy on the island nation, and China recently announced the development of its first aircraft carrier, signaling its intention to use its economic growth to fund a program of coercive diplomacy.  The warning to other nations to cease mineral exploration in the region is coupled with China’s insistence on approaching the issue through bilateral negotiations only.  Through such bilateral exploration agreements, China plans to partner with each country that has a claim to territory in the South China Sea, and therefore, exert territorial control and possibly find supplies of oil and gas to fuel its industrial sector, reducing its dependence on imported energy resources.

China’s actions are producing a shift in the balance of power in the region, according to some experts.  The region’s smaller countries have always had touchy relations with their much larger neighbor, but as China’s economic power has begun to be translated into more aggressive trading approaches and military power, even nations that have free-trade agreements with China are growing more afraid and more aware of the gap between China’s charming rhetoric and assertive actions.  As a result, they appear to be banding together more through ASEAN in order to balance against Chinese power. Indonesia's Dr. Dewi Fortuna Anwar, Research Professor and Deputy Chairman for Social Sciences and Humanities at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences, notes, "South East Asians were, and continue to be, fully aware of both the inherent promises and dangers that China presents, whose traditional symbol is after all a dragon."

The views presented in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the views of any other organization.