he U.S. will take a small step towards an improved diplomatic relationship with Iran when talks concerning the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal begin for the first time since the beginning of the Biden presidency. After a virtual meeting of the nuclear deal last Friday, officials from the U.S., the EU, Iran, France, the UK, Germany, Russia, and China agreed to meet in Vienna this week. And though American and Iranian officials won’t be meeting directly in the Austrian capital, the U.S. will have the opportunity to discuss the 2015 arrangement with officials from other signatories.
The 2015 Iran nuclear deal, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was the signature foreign policy achievement of the Obama administration. Under the JCPOA, Iran agreed to dismantle a large segment of its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. However, despite much discouragement from his aides, President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the JCPOA in 2018, building tensions between the U.S. and Iran that have carried into the Biden administration. Following the 2018 American departure from the nuclear deal and several attacks on prominent Iranians in 2020 (including the U.S. drone strike against Major General Qassim Suleimani), Iran resumed some nuclear activity in retaliation. And though British, German, and French diplomats urged Biden to make the first move towards reinstating the 2015 nuclear deal in the weeks following his inauguration, the American president had said that he was waiting for Iran to make the first move towards compliance with the JCPOA.
However, after months of the White House insisting that Iran make the first move towards reviving the JCPOA, the planned talks in Vienna offer hope for the future of the agreement. Last Friday, Jalina Porter, a U.S. State Department spokesperson, said that the agreement was “a healthy first step forward.” However, restoring the agreement won’t be without its challenges. According to a Council on Foreign Relations overview of the JCPOA, renewed diplomacy between Iran and the United States would require overcoming “major political hurdles.” After all, the original version of the agreement required the participation of seven world powers and took seven years to completely negotiate. Additionally, according to U.S. Secretary of State Anthony J. Blinken, simply restoring the original agreement under the 2015 JCPOA won’t be enough. Blinken argues that the new version of the Iran agreement must be “longer and stronger,” suggesting that the terms should extend beyond 2030 because “many…fuel-production constraints” outlined in the original agreement expire that year.
However, an American failure to renegotiate the JCPOA won’t just change diplomatic relationships between the countries that signed onto the agreement in 2015. In other worlds, the dissolution of the Iran nuclear deal bears major ramifications for international diplomacy. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran has used the past two years to accumulate nuclear material and refine nuclear capacities. If Iran was to reinstate its nuclear weapons program and develop an atomic bomb, the ripple effects of such a decision would be felt across the Middle East, especially by rival countries such as Israel and Saudi Arabia. In a worst-case scenario, the U.S. could find itself embroiled in another conflict abroad if it fails to mend its diplomatic relationship with Iran.
And on the other side of the world, rejoining the agreement presents diplomatic challenges for the U.S. at home. Though Europe has been pressuring the U.S. to re-enter its agreement with Iran since the beginning of the Biden administration, congressional Republicans have complained that Biden has been too quick to remove pressures from Tehran. With domestic politics also divided in Tehran, there is clearly a thicket of diplomatic tangles that both the U.S. and Iran will need to work through at home and abroad if they hope to successfully reinstate the JCPOA. The world must wait and see if this week’s meetings offer a fruitful start towards rebuilding diplomacy between the two states and securing a safer nuclear future.
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Talks in Vienna Offer Hope for Iran Nuclear Deal
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Iran nuclear deal: agreement in Vienna. From left to right: Foreign ministers/secretaries of state Wang Yi (China), Laurent Fabius (France), Frank-Walter Steinmeier (Germany), Federica Mogherini (EU), Mohammad Javad Zarif (Iran), Philip Hammond (UK), John Kerry (USA). CC via Wikimedia.
April 8, 2021
T
he U.S. will take a small step towards an improved diplomatic relationship with Iran when talks concerning the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal begin for the first time since the beginning of the Biden presidency. After a virtual meeting of the nuclear deal last Friday, officials from the U.S., the EU, Iran, France, the UK, Germany, Russia, and China agreed to meet in Vienna this week. And though American and Iranian officials won’t be meeting directly in the Austrian capital, the U.S. will have the opportunity to discuss the 2015 arrangement with officials from other signatories.
The 2015 Iran nuclear deal, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was the signature foreign policy achievement of the Obama administration. Under the JCPOA, Iran agreed to dismantle a large segment of its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. However, despite much discouragement from his aides, President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the JCPOA in 2018, building tensions between the U.S. and Iran that have carried into the Biden administration. Following the 2018 American departure from the nuclear deal and several attacks on prominent Iranians in 2020 (including the U.S. drone strike against Major General Qassim Suleimani), Iran resumed some nuclear activity in retaliation. And though British, German, and French diplomats urged Biden to make the first move towards reinstating the 2015 nuclear deal in the weeks following his inauguration, the American president had said that he was waiting for Iran to make the first move towards compliance with the JCPOA.
However, after months of the White House insisting that Iran make the first move towards reviving the JCPOA, the planned talks in Vienna offer hope for the future of the agreement. Last Friday, Jalina Porter, a U.S. State Department spokesperson, said that the agreement was “a healthy first step forward.” However, restoring the agreement won’t be without its challenges. According to a Council on Foreign Relations overview of the JCPOA, renewed diplomacy between Iran and the United States would require overcoming “major political hurdles.” After all, the original version of the agreement required the participation of seven world powers and took seven years to completely negotiate. Additionally, according to U.S. Secretary of State Anthony J. Blinken, simply restoring the original agreement under the 2015 JCPOA won’t be enough. Blinken argues that the new version of the Iran agreement must be “longer and stronger,” suggesting that the terms should extend beyond 2030 because “many…fuel-production constraints” outlined in the original agreement expire that year.
However, an American failure to renegotiate the JCPOA won’t just change diplomatic relationships between the countries that signed onto the agreement in 2015. In other worlds, the dissolution of the Iran nuclear deal bears major ramifications for international diplomacy. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran has used the past two years to accumulate nuclear material and refine nuclear capacities. If Iran was to reinstate its nuclear weapons program and develop an atomic bomb, the ripple effects of such a decision would be felt across the Middle East, especially by rival countries such as Israel and Saudi Arabia. In a worst-case scenario, the U.S. could find itself embroiled in another conflict abroad if it fails to mend its diplomatic relationship with Iran.
And on the other side of the world, rejoining the agreement presents diplomatic challenges for the U.S. at home. Though Europe has been pressuring the U.S. to re-enter its agreement with Iran since the beginning of the Biden administration, congressional Republicans have complained that Biden has been too quick to remove pressures from Tehran. With domestic politics also divided in Tehran, there is clearly a thicket of diplomatic tangles that both the U.S. and Iran will need to work through at home and abroad if they hope to successfully reinstate the JCPOA. The world must wait and see if this week’s meetings offer a fruitful start towards rebuilding diplomacy between the two states and securing a safer nuclear future.
