Navigating Uncertainty: Alliance Cooperation Beyond the Elections

With 2016 being a charged political year in both the Philippines and the United States (U.S.) as both countries select their next respective Presidents, the current occupants of those offices have come in for a variety of strong criticism, some of which more warranted than others.  There is a strong argument to be made that bilateral relations have flourished under President of the Philippines Benigno Aquino III and U.S. President Barrack Obama.  However, despite 2016 marking the 70^th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations as the U.S. recognized the Philippines as an independent state following the Second World War, the road ahead shows uncertainty. President Aquino was sworn into office in June 2010 and his opposition to the security policy approach of outgoing President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo was well known.  A major effort driven by the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), but with wide consultations across government and with civil society produced the Internal Peace and Security Plan (IPSP) that was launched on January 1, 2011.  It laid out a vision that would focus on ending long-running internal conflicts to enable greater resources to be concentrated on building up an external defense capability. Aquino’s secret meeting in August 2011 with Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) Chair Murad Ebrahim reinvigorated a sporadic peace process that began under President Fidel V. Ramos in the mid-1990s. The Aquino Administration received strong support for this approach from its U.S. ally and sustained negotiations with the MILF led to the Comprehensive Agreement on Bangsamoro in March 2014.  However, the MILF recently marked the second anniversary of the signing of what they perceived a historic breakthrough, but what has proven a frustration as the Philippine Congress has failed to pass the draft Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) that would have enabled the pact.  While some criticism was raised on Constitutional grounds of the BBL from the outset, the Mamasapano Clash on January 25, 2015 where a raid conducted by the Special Action Force (SAF) of the Philippine National Police to capture Zulkifi “Marwan” Abdir which led to the deaths of 44 SAF personnel and 18 MILF fighters in Mindanao’s Maguindanao Province has had a lasting impact. The tragic raid made the BBL, submitted in September 2014 and previously expected to pass relatively smoothly, untenable for many Members of Congress.  This tragedy became a flashpoint for security cooperation as Marwan had been indicted in U.S. court and under the Rewards for Justice Program information leading to his arrest or conviction offered a reward of up to $5 million. When the SAF encountered stiff resistance, inadequate coordination meant no AFP unit was in a position to rapidly respond in support.  The U.S. Embassy in Manila acknowledged that personnel from Joint Special Operations Task Force-Philippines responded to an AFP request to assist in the evacuation of dead and wounded after the firefight, fueling all kinds of speculation.  The draft BBL waits for the next Congressional session. Securing the Philippines Maritime Domain The Aquino Administration has focused efforts and allocated additional resources towards an external defense capability, in order to better secure the Philippines vast maritime domain.  The intensity of the maritime challenge garners global attention, especially related to its January 2013 submission to the Permanent Court of Arbitration, as it seeks to challenge China’s “nine-dashed line” maritime claim in the South China Sea under Annex VII of the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.  A ruling is expected in the summer of 2016.  The pace of Chinese land reclamation and continuing presence of survey ships shows their potential to create an additional artificial island in the Spratly Islands, directly challenging both alliance partners. Senator John McCain, Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, has been a key voice for greater cooperation with the Philippines.  Secretary of Defense Ash Carter announced the Southeast Asia Maritime Security Initiative at the 2015 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, but the funding was inserted into the Committee Budget under Chairman McCain and that support has begun to flow, funding capacity-building in the Philippines.  However, persistent engagement is necessary to successfully implement such efforts.  Japanese development assistance in the form of a loan of approximately $200 million to help the Philippine Coast Guard purchase ten new patrol boats was announced in 2012, but the announcement of a contract award was not made until April 2015. In January the Philippine Supreme Court upheld the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) between the two allies which will give the U.S. access to key facilities to pre-position equipment and rotationally deploy forces.  During their sixth Bilateral Strategic Dialogue with Department of Foreign Affairs and Department of National Defense leaders in Washington this March to meet with their U.S. counterparts, they noted consensus on five EDCA Agreed Locations, including facilities in Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao.  While the U.S. will remain consumed with electoral politics, it is crucial the next Philippine President capitalize on security initiatives already in place upon entering office in late June.  The six-month period the Aquino Administration had as it developed its approach to national security under the IPSP is a luxury that the current security environment will not afford his successor.   About the author: Justin Goldman is a Non-Resident Fellow and Young Leader with Pacific Forum CSIS.