s NATO marks its 75th anniversary in a world on edge, the old playbook is no longer enough. Europe is witnessing its sharpest rearmament since the Cold War—defense spending across NATO members surged by over 11% last year and 23 allies are now meeting the 2% GDP target for military investment. Yet the battles of tomorrow won’t just be fought on land, sea, or air—they will unfold in minds, networks, and ecosystems.
The war in Ukraine has forced a return to hard power fundamentals, but the true test of NATO’s future will be its ability to integrate soft power and digital defense. Disinformation campaigns now move faster than tanks. One Russian operation in 2023 flooded social media with over 150 million false narratives in just six months, according to EUvsDisinfo. The line between cyberattack and hybrid warfare has all but vanished: NATO registered over 2,500 significant cyber incidents targeting member states last year alone.
Europe’s move to strengthen its own defense industry signals a maturing partnership, but it also raises questions about interoperability and strategic autonomy. The alliance’s cohesion will depend less on hardware, more on trust and shared data alongside an adaptive doctrine.
NATO’s next chapter demands a “code of deterrence” as robust in confronting cyber–threats as it is at confronting the physical. That means not just patching vulnerabilities, but anticipating threats—using AI for real–time threat detection, building quantum–proof communications, and embedding climate risk into defense planning. With extreme weather events costing NATO countries over $100 billion annually, climate resilience is no longer a peripheral issue; it is core to security.
Ultimately, NATO’s mission must evolve from defending territory to defending the integrity of open societies—countering both tanks and trolls, both floods and firewalls. The power of the alliance will be measured not just by force projection, but by its ability to engineer trust and resilience across every frontier: military, digital, and social.
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Hard power, soft power, and the code of deterrence
Image via Adobe Stock.
June 25, 2025
The return of active war to Europe has refocused attention on hard power fundamentals. Yet the future of NATO demands the alliance strategically integrate soft power and digital defense, writes Rui Duarte.
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s NATO marks its 75th anniversary in a world on edge, the old playbook is no longer enough. Europe is witnessing its sharpest rearmament since the Cold War—defense spending across NATO members surged by over 11% last year and 23 allies are now meeting the 2% GDP target for military investment. Yet the battles of tomorrow won’t just be fought on land, sea, or air—they will unfold in minds, networks, and ecosystems.
The war in Ukraine has forced a return to hard power fundamentals, but the true test of NATO’s future will be its ability to integrate soft power and digital defense. Disinformation campaigns now move faster than tanks. One Russian operation in 2023 flooded social media with over 150 million false narratives in just six months, according to EUvsDisinfo. The line between cyberattack and hybrid warfare has all but vanished: NATO registered over 2,500 significant cyber incidents targeting member states last year alone.
Europe’s move to strengthen its own defense industry signals a maturing partnership, but it also raises questions about interoperability and strategic autonomy. The alliance’s cohesion will depend less on hardware, more on trust and shared data alongside an adaptive doctrine.
NATO’s next chapter demands a “code of deterrence” as robust in confronting cyber–threats as it is at confronting the physical. That means not just patching vulnerabilities, but anticipating threats—using AI for real–time threat detection, building quantum–proof communications, and embedding climate risk into defense planning. With extreme weather events costing NATO countries over $100 billion annually, climate resilience is no longer a peripheral issue; it is core to security.
Ultimately, NATO’s mission must evolve from defending territory to defending the integrity of open societies—countering both tanks and trolls, both floods and firewalls. The power of the alliance will be measured not just by force projection, but by its ability to engineer trust and resilience across every frontier: military, digital, and social.
