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Winning Italy’s constitutional referendum on December 4th might open up a significant opportunity in Europe for Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, well-positioning Italy for exerting leadership in what is expected to be a troubled year for European politics. In the voting booth, Italians will be called to confirm or reject a set of constitutional reforms that would supposedly make more agile the relationship between executive and legislative power. How? First of all, the Government would need the confidence vote of the only Chamber of Deputies and not of the Senate as well, as does now. The Senate will also see its powers limited, its membership reduced and its composition changed. Finally, the reforms will better delineate power between central and regional institutions, strengthening the decision-making role of the Government. The political outcome of a victory of the “Yes camp” would be a personal triumph for Matteo Renzi, that would bring him back to a “political honeymoon” comparable to the one that followed the landslide victory at the European elections in 2014, when his party gained 41% of the consensus. While this triumph would create a vast political capital to be used internally—confirming Renzi as the dominus of Italian politics—its consequences would also strongly reflect abroad. Should he win on December 4th, Renzi would probably be the European leader best positioned to influence the European agenda for 2017. But let’s take a step back. Italy’s ambition to join EU’s inner circle were boosted by the Brexit vote. With UK further disengaging with the EU, Italy was able to enter the political trio with Germany and France. This was apparent during the summit in August, when Renzi hosted the German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the French President Francois Hollande in the highly symbolic island of Ventotene—where one of the founding fathers of European integration wrote the "Ventotene manifesto", calling for a federation of European states. Afterwards, Renzi made clear that he was not looking just for a photo-opportunity with Merkel and Hollande, but he wanted his political priorities (mainly migration and fiscal flexibility) to be included in the EU’s political agenda and addressed through concrete measures. This is why, significantly, he did not show up at the press conference following the EU summit in Bratislava, claiming the meeting failed to achieve tangible results. But now, the power-balance between the political trio might soon change. Between April and May, France will hold what will probably be the harshest presidential elections since a long time, with the rise of the anti-establishment, anti-EU leader of the Front National, Marine Le Pen. Francois Hollande is currently third in the polls, after Marine Le Pen and any candidate of the moderate center-right (Alain Juppè or Nicolas Sarkozy). The presidential elections will force French politics to focus on internal issues from January to April, with the potential ‘shock’ of having a French President who plans to hold a Brexit-style referendum afterwards. As a result, for at least the first four months of the year, France will have a little political capital to spend to influence the European agenda. Germany will hold elections as well. Angela Merkel faces a less troubled situation than her French partner as she has strong chances to win again, if she runs. The elections will take place sometime between September and October. Until then, the German leadership will be less active and even less keen than ever in putting important items on the table of the European agenda. Here comes the opportunity for Renzi. With France and Germany undergoing election years, Italy is set to play a key role to drive forward the European agenda. Renzi’s plan will articulate around a set of key dates. European Summit meetings will take place in December (2016), March, June, October and again December (2017). In the first two of such meetings, meaning until a new French President is elected, Renzi has a strong hand to play to lead, or co-lead, the summits. But Renzi’s inner circle focuses especially on two other dates: 25 March, when Rome will host the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome, and 26/27 May, when the G7 group meets in Sicily. These two events will take place in Italy and may represent two key moments for a potential Italian leadership. Alongside these events, Italy’s role will be reinforced by the prestige of seating in the UN Security Council, where it was elected last June for a one-year term starting in January, as well as by the activism that Rome is exerting in other international dossiers, namely the migration crisis and Libya’s situation. The mix between the potential political capital in the hands of Renzi, the electoral calendars of ‘competitors’ such Germany and France, key meetings that will be hosted by Italy and, furthermore, the presence of Rome in the UN Security Council, represents a big opportunity for Renzi’s future and Italy’s role in the EU. A whole different path, however, might expect Renzi should he lose the referendum.   About the author: Pietro Battistella is a communication and public affairs consultant for APCO Worldwide. He tweets @batpie.

The views presented in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the views of any other organization.

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Why Italy Could Lead Europe in 2017

3D Illustration. Italy Jigsaw as part of EU
November 10, 2016

Winning Italy’s constitutional referendum on December 4th might open up a significant opportunity in Europe for Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, well-positioning Italy for exerting leadership in what is expected to be a troubled year for European politics. In the voting booth, Italians will be called to confirm or reject a set of constitutional reforms that would supposedly make more agile the relationship between executive and legislative power. How? First of all, the Government would need the confidence vote of the only Chamber of Deputies and not of the Senate as well, as does now. The Senate will also see its powers limited, its membership reduced and its composition changed. Finally, the reforms will better delineate power between central and regional institutions, strengthening the decision-making role of the Government. The political outcome of a victory of the “Yes camp” would be a personal triumph for Matteo Renzi, that would bring him back to a “political honeymoon” comparable to the one that followed the landslide victory at the European elections in 2014, when his party gained 41% of the consensus. While this triumph would create a vast political capital to be used internally—confirming Renzi as the dominus of Italian politics—its consequences would also strongly reflect abroad. Should he win on December 4th, Renzi would probably be the European leader best positioned to influence the European agenda for 2017. But let’s take a step back. Italy’s ambition to join EU’s inner circle were boosted by the Brexit vote. With UK further disengaging with the EU, Italy was able to enter the political trio with Germany and France. This was apparent during the summit in August, when Renzi hosted the German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the French President Francois Hollande in the highly symbolic island of Ventotene—where one of the founding fathers of European integration wrote the "Ventotene manifesto", calling for a federation of European states. Afterwards, Renzi made clear that he was not looking just for a photo-opportunity with Merkel and Hollande, but he wanted his political priorities (mainly migration and fiscal flexibility) to be included in the EU’s political agenda and addressed through concrete measures. This is why, significantly, he did not show up at the press conference following the EU summit in Bratislava, claiming the meeting failed to achieve tangible results. But now, the power-balance between the political trio might soon change. Between April and May, France will hold what will probably be the harshest presidential elections since a long time, with the rise of the anti-establishment, anti-EU leader of the Front National, Marine Le Pen. Francois Hollande is currently third in the polls, after Marine Le Pen and any candidate of the moderate center-right (Alain Juppè or Nicolas Sarkozy). The presidential elections will force French politics to focus on internal issues from January to April, with the potential ‘shock’ of having a French President who plans to hold a Brexit-style referendum afterwards. As a result, for at least the first four months of the year, France will have a little political capital to spend to influence the European agenda. Germany will hold elections as well. Angela Merkel faces a less troubled situation than her French partner as she has strong chances to win again, if she runs. The elections will take place sometime between September and October. Until then, the German leadership will be less active and even less keen than ever in putting important items on the table of the European agenda. Here comes the opportunity for Renzi. With France and Germany undergoing election years, Italy is set to play a key role to drive forward the European agenda. Renzi’s plan will articulate around a set of key dates. European Summit meetings will take place in December (2016), March, June, October and again December (2017). In the first two of such meetings, meaning until a new French President is elected, Renzi has a strong hand to play to lead, or co-lead, the summits. But Renzi’s inner circle focuses especially on two other dates: 25 March, when Rome will host the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome, and 26/27 May, when the G7 group meets in Sicily. These two events will take place in Italy and may represent two key moments for a potential Italian leadership. Alongside these events, Italy’s role will be reinforced by the prestige of seating in the UN Security Council, where it was elected last June for a one-year term starting in January, as well as by the activism that Rome is exerting in other international dossiers, namely the migration crisis and Libya’s situation. The mix between the potential political capital in the hands of Renzi, the electoral calendars of ‘competitors’ such Germany and France, key meetings that will be hosted by Italy and, furthermore, the presence of Rome in the UN Security Council, represents a big opportunity for Renzi’s future and Italy’s role in the EU. A whole different path, however, might expect Renzi should he lose the referendum.   About the author: Pietro Battistella is a communication and public affairs consultant for APCO Worldwide. He tweets @batpie.

The views presented in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the views of any other organization.