In a series of articles, Diplomatic Courier and APCO Worldwide are partnering to cover the 2014 European Union elections. Find more information about this series here.
The Outcome of the 2013 German Elections
The 2013 election of a new German parliament attracted considerable attention throughout the European Union. Some even considered it to be a landmark decision that changed German EU politics, especially with regard to financial crisis management. At the same time, the election’s outcome creates a level of uncertainty and leaves some open questions when it comes to the immediate future of German EU politics and the upcoming election of the European Parliament in 2014.
The victory of Chancellor Merkel and her party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), together with the Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), is unquestioned. With a result close to an absolute majority, Ms. Merkel is stronger than ever before. German middle class voters clearly mandated the current chancellor to form a new government—which traditionally requires a coalition with other political parties in Germany. Losing her minority partner from the previous coalition, the market-liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), created a situation that forces Chancellor Merkel to negotiate with opposition parties, the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Green Party. Currently, a Grand Coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD looks very likely, since the Green Party declared that major obstacles in energy and environmental policy could not be removed throughout the negotiation process.
Nevertheless, it should not be forgotten that 49 percent of the Germans voted for left of center positions as represented by the Social Democrats, the Green Party and the left-wing party DIE LINKE. This reflects the divide of German society, a result of a growing prosperity gap among social classes—some of it caused by the Euro crisis—but also by a so called “neo-liberal” development for which the Liberal Party took the blame in the election poll. While conservative voters prefer the austerity policy of Merkel and are in favor of state debt reduction and reform in southern EU member states, nearly half of the German population prefers improved social standards in Germany and favor less strict austerity policies in Europe.
What could a Grand Coalition mean for the German EU-Politics?
Common positions of SPD and CDU regarding EU-politics seem to be in the field of the financial transaction tax/Tobin tax, a stricter regulation of financial markets and support for reform projects as well as economic growth incentives for Euro crisis countries. The SPD is said to have changed its mind regarding Eurobonds and is in line with Merkel’s negative position on Eurobonds. With the SPD as a partner, the CDU will have to mitigate its austerity policy and will have to focus more on economic stimulus programs.
With regard to the 2014 European Parliament election, the German elections’ outcome may predict a pattern of German voters’ preference, and in particular the Liberal Party will have to fight against their erosion of importance in the political landscape. This may result in further loss of influence for market-liberal voices in the European Parliament, too. Meanwhile, conservative forces and Social-Democrats will probably be able to benefit from the new governmental constellation. After their defeat in the German election, it remains to be seen how the Green Party will campaign for the EU Parliament election to re-attract German voters.
A Grand Coalition will also be a favorable constellation for Martin Schulz, President of the European Parliament. Seen to be the favorite of the Party of European Socialists (PES), he will have a good chance to secure German backing as candidate for the President of the European Commission in 2014, should Mrs Merkel's European People's Party not retain their leadership in the European elections.
Still, the two parties remain discordant on many points. Mandatory minimum wages and income tax raises for high income groups are at the core of the SPD’s catalogue, as well as EU-wide social standards and more rights for the European Parliament. On the other hand, the CDU expressed concerns over a too-centralistic Europe. The accession of Turkey to the EU is another topic of conflict with a strong conservative resistance. Also, the topic of a European Banking Union seems not yet to be resolved between the future coalition parties.
More financial help for Greece, the future of Cyprus, accession talks with Turkey, next steps of the European Banking Union, and accession talks with Serbia will be on the European agenda in the last quarter of 2013. Although it is integral to the negotiations to play with a timeframe that postpones the forming of a new German government until Christmas, all political parties know the urgency to take an aligned position regarding European topics. But, the Social Democrats promised a member vote to their party members and this may, in fact, delay the entire process.
Jacques Delors, former president of the European Commission, expects the new Grand Coalition to even strengthen Germany’s overall EU-friendly policy. A milder version of austerity policy and a stronger focus on the European labor market is expected. Energy policy will remain a key priority for Germany, and they will influence the European position in the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations in order to protect German industry positions. Demonstration of successful partnerships with European member states and good relations with the European institutions remain critical topics for any German government. More understanding and better acceptance for European affairs and politics among the German population is of utmost importance to attach people emotionally to Europe. The immediate success of almost 5 percent of voters for a newly founded EU skeptical party (AfD) in the 2013 poll speaks for itself. The Grand Coalition will have to show the German population that there is benefit in both a common currency and in the EU to ensure that the skepticism of being the “German cash cow for Europe” is not deepened.
Lucia Meyer is a member of APCO’s policy research and analysis team in Germany.
Photo by Sebastian Derungs. Copyright World Economic Forum.
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Impact of a New German Government on the European Union
October 21, 2013
In a series of articles, Diplomatic Courier and APCO Worldwide are partnering to cover the 2014 European Union elections. Find more information about this series here.
The Outcome of the 2013 German Elections
The 2013 election of a new German parliament attracted considerable attention throughout the European Union. Some even considered it to be a landmark decision that changed German EU politics, especially with regard to financial crisis management. At the same time, the election’s outcome creates a level of uncertainty and leaves some open questions when it comes to the immediate future of German EU politics and the upcoming election of the European Parliament in 2014.
The victory of Chancellor Merkel and her party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), together with the Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), is unquestioned. With a result close to an absolute majority, Ms. Merkel is stronger than ever before. German middle class voters clearly mandated the current chancellor to form a new government—which traditionally requires a coalition with other political parties in Germany. Losing her minority partner from the previous coalition, the market-liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), created a situation that forces Chancellor Merkel to negotiate with opposition parties, the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Green Party. Currently, a Grand Coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD looks very likely, since the Green Party declared that major obstacles in energy and environmental policy could not be removed throughout the negotiation process.
Nevertheless, it should not be forgotten that 49 percent of the Germans voted for left of center positions as represented by the Social Democrats, the Green Party and the left-wing party DIE LINKE. This reflects the divide of German society, a result of a growing prosperity gap among social classes—some of it caused by the Euro crisis—but also by a so called “neo-liberal” development for which the Liberal Party took the blame in the election poll. While conservative voters prefer the austerity policy of Merkel and are in favor of state debt reduction and reform in southern EU member states, nearly half of the German population prefers improved social standards in Germany and favor less strict austerity policies in Europe.
What could a Grand Coalition mean for the German EU-Politics?
Common positions of SPD and CDU regarding EU-politics seem to be in the field of the financial transaction tax/Tobin tax, a stricter regulation of financial markets and support for reform projects as well as economic growth incentives for Euro crisis countries. The SPD is said to have changed its mind regarding Eurobonds and is in line with Merkel’s negative position on Eurobonds. With the SPD as a partner, the CDU will have to mitigate its austerity policy and will have to focus more on economic stimulus programs.
With regard to the 2014 European Parliament election, the German elections’ outcome may predict a pattern of German voters’ preference, and in particular the Liberal Party will have to fight against their erosion of importance in the political landscape. This may result in further loss of influence for market-liberal voices in the European Parliament, too. Meanwhile, conservative forces and Social-Democrats will probably be able to benefit from the new governmental constellation. After their defeat in the German election, it remains to be seen how the Green Party will campaign for the EU Parliament election to re-attract German voters.
A Grand Coalition will also be a favorable constellation for Martin Schulz, President of the European Parliament. Seen to be the favorite of the Party of European Socialists (PES), he will have a good chance to secure German backing as candidate for the President of the European Commission in 2014, should Mrs Merkel's European People's Party not retain their leadership in the European elections.
Still, the two parties remain discordant on many points. Mandatory minimum wages and income tax raises for high income groups are at the core of the SPD’s catalogue, as well as EU-wide social standards and more rights for the European Parliament. On the other hand, the CDU expressed concerns over a too-centralistic Europe. The accession of Turkey to the EU is another topic of conflict with a strong conservative resistance. Also, the topic of a European Banking Union seems not yet to be resolved between the future coalition parties.
More financial help for Greece, the future of Cyprus, accession talks with Turkey, next steps of the European Banking Union, and accession talks with Serbia will be on the European agenda in the last quarter of 2013. Although it is integral to the negotiations to play with a timeframe that postpones the forming of a new German government until Christmas, all political parties know the urgency to take an aligned position regarding European topics. But, the Social Democrats promised a member vote to their party members and this may, in fact, delay the entire process.
Jacques Delors, former president of the European Commission, expects the new Grand Coalition to even strengthen Germany’s overall EU-friendly policy. A milder version of austerity policy and a stronger focus on the European labor market is expected. Energy policy will remain a key priority for Germany, and they will influence the European position in the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations in order to protect German industry positions. Demonstration of successful partnerships with European member states and good relations with the European institutions remain critical topics for any German government. More understanding and better acceptance for European affairs and politics among the German population is of utmost importance to attach people emotionally to Europe. The immediate success of almost 5 percent of voters for a newly founded EU skeptical party (AfD) in the 2013 poll speaks for itself. The Grand Coalition will have to show the German population that there is benefit in both a common currency and in the EU to ensure that the skepticism of being the “German cash cow for Europe” is not deepened.
Lucia Meyer is a member of APCO’s policy research and analysis team in Germany.
Photo by Sebastian Derungs. Copyright World Economic Forum.
