n 19 November 2023, the Houthis, who had been at war with the Government of Yemen for most of the last decade, began an historic assault on global maritime commerce. In early March 2025, the United States launched a massive bombing campaign against them, made famous by the leaked Signal conversation in which U.S. officials discussed the strike.
In early May, the U.S. announced a ceasefire deal and reassured the world that the Houthis would no longer attack ships. Then, in early July 2025, the Houthis sank two commercial vessels, killing 9 seafarers and taking six hostage. As of this writing, the latest attack just occurred on 23 September 2025, thankfully not resulting in any injuries. As we mark World Maritime Day, it is helpful to take a moment and reflect on the state of maritime affairs and the concerns that lie ahead.
At present, the Red Sea remains the world’s most beleaguered chokepoint. For nearly two years, the Houthis have made it—along with the Bab el–Mandeb Strait and adjacent Gulf of Aden—the most dangerous place for seafarers to traverse. Unfortunately, a failure of strategy has rendered all interventions to date, both at sea and on land, ineffective in changing the Houthi behavior. As their conduct evinces, the Houthis remain undeterred. The problem is that strategy requires knowing the adversary, and none of the efforts in the region have been conducted with an understanding of what would actually deter the Houthis from pursuing attacks.
Furthermore, by the time the “deterrence” initiatives were launched, the Houthis were already winning as far as they were concerned. They were globally visible, highly credible… and undeniably relevant. International actors should have pursued compellence—to force a change in behavior and not just prevent them from doing what they were already doing. Instead, however, most counter–Houthi initiatives had the opposite effect of what they intended, emboldening the Houthis and strengthening their resolve. As a result, the Houthis remain a critical threat to regional security and most notably to maritime security.
The continued Houthi threat to regional and maritime security
This continued threat has several dimensions.
The Houthis have taught bad actors some very important lessons. First, it is possible to garner global attention from attacking ships with relatively limited negative consequences. Second, it is dramatic to attack ships with high end weaponry, but more effective to sink them with inexpensive, increasingly available autonomous technology. And third, attacking maritime commerce can be a path to becoming established as a major “player.”
The Houthis were responsible for nearly half a million deaths before they started attacking ships, but outside the immediate region of Yemen, no one really paid them much attention. Once they abducted the GALAXY LEADER in November 2023, however, they became a household name around the world, and remain such to this day. Attacks on the Houthis, more for their attacks on Israel than on shipping, may have diminished them for periods. Yet they remain a formidable force in the region, capable of significant disruption. That serves as a critical inspiration for like–minded groups around the world: attacking ships at sea can put you on the map.
Unlike most other non–state armed groups, the Houthis have benefited from a significant stream of high–end weaponry, primarily from Iran. That dynamic has allowed them to become the first actor to use certain weapon systems—including hypersonic missiles—in a real–world maritime setting. That said, there are two main lessons the Houthis have learned about weapons that others are now learning from them.
- The first is that economic asymmetry in armaments is becoming more significant. The Houthis could routinely use $5,000 drones to attack naval assets and ships in their vicinity, thereby forcing western navies to deploy $5 million countermeasures in response. That burn rate bodes in favor of the Houthis.
- Similarly, the deployment of high-end aerial weapons drew global interest and attention, but the ships that the Houthis sank were largely attacked using low-cost drone boats that hit the vessel at the waterline. Both of these lessons are worrisome in the hands of other bad actors who may wish to pursue a similar course of conduct.
Finally, the obscurity of the Houthis a few years ago is gone. Today, major players from Russia and China to North Korea and terrorist groups such as Al Shabab are all seeking relationships with the Houthis. Even the U.S. has publicly negotiated with the Houthis despite their designation as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. And so this “rebel” group has become, through its maritime attacks, a significant player on the world’s stage. That lesson may hold appeal to other groups seeking an air of legitimacy.
In the Caribbean, a maritime region far removed from the Red Sea, the U.S. has sunk three vessels and killed seventeen individuals in the last month. While the context could not be more different, the presence of lethal and destructive violence at sea is becoming a more prolific maritime reality than it has in a long time. If a push for peace at sea does not occur in the months ahead, it is likely that the intensity of this violence will only increase by World Maritime Day 2026. Lessons are being learned from what is happening on the water, but the concern is that those lessons lead down a more violent and chaotic path. States should consider creating ambassadors at large for maritime affairs, able to handle the diversity of incidents—from accidents to piracy to trafficking to terrorism to hybrid aggression—that are making the world’s waters progressively less safe, secure and stable. Using those offices to advocate for sensible approaches to peace, freedom of navigation and sustainable approaches to using the maritime domain will ultimately benefit the prosperity of the whole world. Rather than wait for a more grim outlook by the next World Maritime Day, perhaps that could be key development.
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Houthis remain undeterred: Lessons World Maritime Day
Interdiction operation targeting pirates on Red Sea. Image via Adobe Stock.
September 25, 2025
Despite perceptions to the contrary, the Houthis are and remain a group that must continue to be taken seriously as a regional and maritime security threat. More, we have cautionary tales to learn from how this came to be, writes Dr. Ian Ralby.
O
n 19 November 2023, the Houthis, who had been at war with the Government of Yemen for most of the last decade, began an historic assault on global maritime commerce. In early March 2025, the United States launched a massive bombing campaign against them, made famous by the leaked Signal conversation in which U.S. officials discussed the strike.
In early May, the U.S. announced a ceasefire deal and reassured the world that the Houthis would no longer attack ships. Then, in early July 2025, the Houthis sank two commercial vessels, killing 9 seafarers and taking six hostage. As of this writing, the latest attack just occurred on 23 September 2025, thankfully not resulting in any injuries. As we mark World Maritime Day, it is helpful to take a moment and reflect on the state of maritime affairs and the concerns that lie ahead.
At present, the Red Sea remains the world’s most beleaguered chokepoint. For nearly two years, the Houthis have made it—along with the Bab el–Mandeb Strait and adjacent Gulf of Aden—the most dangerous place for seafarers to traverse. Unfortunately, a failure of strategy has rendered all interventions to date, both at sea and on land, ineffective in changing the Houthi behavior. As their conduct evinces, the Houthis remain undeterred. The problem is that strategy requires knowing the adversary, and none of the efforts in the region have been conducted with an understanding of what would actually deter the Houthis from pursuing attacks.
Furthermore, by the time the “deterrence” initiatives were launched, the Houthis were already winning as far as they were concerned. They were globally visible, highly credible… and undeniably relevant. International actors should have pursued compellence—to force a change in behavior and not just prevent them from doing what they were already doing. Instead, however, most counter–Houthi initiatives had the opposite effect of what they intended, emboldening the Houthis and strengthening their resolve. As a result, the Houthis remain a critical threat to regional security and most notably to maritime security.
The continued Houthi threat to regional and maritime security
This continued threat has several dimensions.
The Houthis have taught bad actors some very important lessons. First, it is possible to garner global attention from attacking ships with relatively limited negative consequences. Second, it is dramatic to attack ships with high end weaponry, but more effective to sink them with inexpensive, increasingly available autonomous technology. And third, attacking maritime commerce can be a path to becoming established as a major “player.”
The Houthis were responsible for nearly half a million deaths before they started attacking ships, but outside the immediate region of Yemen, no one really paid them much attention. Once they abducted the GALAXY LEADER in November 2023, however, they became a household name around the world, and remain such to this day. Attacks on the Houthis, more for their attacks on Israel than on shipping, may have diminished them for periods. Yet they remain a formidable force in the region, capable of significant disruption. That serves as a critical inspiration for like–minded groups around the world: attacking ships at sea can put you on the map.
Unlike most other non–state armed groups, the Houthis have benefited from a significant stream of high–end weaponry, primarily from Iran. That dynamic has allowed them to become the first actor to use certain weapon systems—including hypersonic missiles—in a real–world maritime setting. That said, there are two main lessons the Houthis have learned about weapons that others are now learning from them.
- The first is that economic asymmetry in armaments is becoming more significant. The Houthis could routinely use $5,000 drones to attack naval assets and ships in their vicinity, thereby forcing western navies to deploy $5 million countermeasures in response. That burn rate bodes in favor of the Houthis.
- Similarly, the deployment of high-end aerial weapons drew global interest and attention, but the ships that the Houthis sank were largely attacked using low-cost drone boats that hit the vessel at the waterline. Both of these lessons are worrisome in the hands of other bad actors who may wish to pursue a similar course of conduct.
Finally, the obscurity of the Houthis a few years ago is gone. Today, major players from Russia and China to North Korea and terrorist groups such as Al Shabab are all seeking relationships with the Houthis. Even the U.S. has publicly negotiated with the Houthis despite their designation as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. And so this “rebel” group has become, through its maritime attacks, a significant player on the world’s stage. That lesson may hold appeal to other groups seeking an air of legitimacy.
In the Caribbean, a maritime region far removed from the Red Sea, the U.S. has sunk three vessels and killed seventeen individuals in the last month. While the context could not be more different, the presence of lethal and destructive violence at sea is becoming a more prolific maritime reality than it has in a long time. If a push for peace at sea does not occur in the months ahead, it is likely that the intensity of this violence will only increase by World Maritime Day 2026. Lessons are being learned from what is happening on the water, but the concern is that those lessons lead down a more violent and chaotic path. States should consider creating ambassadors at large for maritime affairs, able to handle the diversity of incidents—from accidents to piracy to trafficking to terrorism to hybrid aggression—that are making the world’s waters progressively less safe, secure and stable. Using those offices to advocate for sensible approaches to peace, freedom of navigation and sustainable approaches to using the maritime domain will ultimately benefit the prosperity of the whole world. Rather than wait for a more grim outlook by the next World Maritime Day, perhaps that could be key development.
