ussia has long used energy as a geostrategic weapon to manipulate other countries to bend to its will—and the Nord Stream pipelines are no exception. Inaugurated in 2011, Gazprom built its first pipeline to Germany, Nord Stream 1, just before Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine. Not only was it a prelude of things to come in Ukraine, but Nord Stream made those things possible. At the time, the West did not yet understand Russia’s primary objective for developing the Nord Stream pipelines—to bypass Ukraine and leave it vulnerable to Russian aggression. The global community should fully understand Russian intentions now.
The Russians saw the Nord Stream pipelines as insurance—and began planning them in response to Ukraine’s 2004 pro-democracy Orange Revolution that sounded alarm bells in the Kremlin. With the flip of a switch, the Russians planned to imperil Ukraine’s democratic future by bypassing Ukraine while suppling gas to Europe. Without substantial gas transit, Ukraine would have no real leverage against the Kremlin meddling in its sovereign affairs or invading its territory.
Now that Russia has unleashed a full-scale war on Ukraine, the Kremlin is slowly cutting Ukraine off from all gas transit. This frees its hand to indiscriminately bomb targets throughout Ukraine and if Russian state-owned Gazprom stops transiting gas through Ukraine, Kyiv will no longer be able to provide gas to Ukrainian households. Russia could effectively cut off energy to millions of Ukrainian households—potentially in the dead of winter—with dire humanitarian consequences and eliminating Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.
But there is a solution. Europe—and Germany in particular—could show complete and unmistakable support for Ukraine by halting all gas transit through Nord Stream 1 and rerouting this gas through Ukraine. Russia has already threatened to reduce the gas supply to Germany via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, but Russia needs to keep providing gas to Europe in order to keep its system technically viable and maintain its contracts. Two days before the Russia invasion of Ukraine, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline was stopped from coming online. A switch away from Nord Stream 1 would make the Ukrainian system indispensable—an asset the Kremlin would protect at all costs if it wants to keep its commitments to European customers and receive revenue from its gas sales. This could also discourage the Russians from indiscriminately attacking the pipeline system or civilian targets in Ukraine.
Once Nord Stream 1 is stopped, Russia will be forced to increase transit payments to Ukraine. When Gazprom ships gas to Europe via Nord Stream 1, it pays transit fees to the Russian state—essentially reimbursing itself. If Europe reroutes gas through Ukraine, Gazprom’s payments to the Russian state that are currently being used to finance the Kremlin’s brutal war would stop. As a result, the Ukrainian government would receive an estimated $500 million to $1.8 billion that could be used to directly help Ukrainian citizens impacted by this war. As the EU supports candidate status for Ukraine, such coordinated action naturally makes sense.
Rerouting gas flows from Nord Stream 1 would also not threaten the security of European and global gas supply. Before the construction of Nord Steam 1, the Ukrainian gas transit system, with more than 140 billion cubic meters of annual transit capacity, was the main route for delivering gas to Germany and Austria. The system was built with sufficient capacity to supply Europe.
In 2020, Germany made an exception to the EU rules that allowed for the completion of Nord Stream 1 based on the assumption that it would bring greater security and gas to Europe. Neither has proven correct. However, Europe has the power to make the continent more secure. Europe can change Russia’s calculus in Ukraine, it can make the protection of the Ukrainian transit system essential to the Kremlin’s plans. It can also force Russia to recognize the leverage European governments and consumers have over the future of Russian gas production, revenue, and long-term contracts—reversing the leverage Russia is now exercising. It sends a clear signal that Russia’s weaponization of gas in Europe will result in a weakened energy sector for years to come unless Russia changes its ways and stops its attack on Ukraine. Europe can stop the destruction of much more Ukrainian territory and the disastrous effects to civilian life. All of this by simply stopping the use of Nord Stream 1.
Ukrainians feel the effects of losing its gas leverage over Russia every day. They are in the siren warnings and the bombings that follow. They are in Russia’s mass atrocities in Bucha and its total devastation in Mariupol. They are in Ukrainian children, robbed of a childhood. We cannot allow them to also be robbed of a future that is Ukrainian. And at stake is not only the future of Ukraine, but the future of a free and democratic Europe. Ukraine is asking the West in the strong possible terms to protect its only remaining physical shield, not just for Ukraine, but for all of Europe. With the flip of a switch, Europe can protect itself from Russia’s energy weapon and help support future stability and peace in Europe.
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Disabling the Russian Energy Arsenal
Photo by Quinten de Graaf via Unsplash.
July 2, 2022
Russia has long used energy as a geostrategic weapon, and the Nord Stream pipelines are no exception. As Russia cuts off energy to Ukraine, Europe—and Germany in particular—should halt all gas transit through Nord Stream 1 and reroute this gas through Ukraine, writes Olga Bielkova.
R
ussia has long used energy as a geostrategic weapon to manipulate other countries to bend to its will—and the Nord Stream pipelines are no exception. Inaugurated in 2011, Gazprom built its first pipeline to Germany, Nord Stream 1, just before Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine. Not only was it a prelude of things to come in Ukraine, but Nord Stream made those things possible. At the time, the West did not yet understand Russia’s primary objective for developing the Nord Stream pipelines—to bypass Ukraine and leave it vulnerable to Russian aggression. The global community should fully understand Russian intentions now.
The Russians saw the Nord Stream pipelines as insurance—and began planning them in response to Ukraine’s 2004 pro-democracy Orange Revolution that sounded alarm bells in the Kremlin. With the flip of a switch, the Russians planned to imperil Ukraine’s democratic future by bypassing Ukraine while suppling gas to Europe. Without substantial gas transit, Ukraine would have no real leverage against the Kremlin meddling in its sovereign affairs or invading its territory.
Now that Russia has unleashed a full-scale war on Ukraine, the Kremlin is slowly cutting Ukraine off from all gas transit. This frees its hand to indiscriminately bomb targets throughout Ukraine and if Russian state-owned Gazprom stops transiting gas through Ukraine, Kyiv will no longer be able to provide gas to Ukrainian households. Russia could effectively cut off energy to millions of Ukrainian households—potentially in the dead of winter—with dire humanitarian consequences and eliminating Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.
But there is a solution. Europe—and Germany in particular—could show complete and unmistakable support for Ukraine by halting all gas transit through Nord Stream 1 and rerouting this gas through Ukraine. Russia has already threatened to reduce the gas supply to Germany via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, but Russia needs to keep providing gas to Europe in order to keep its system technically viable and maintain its contracts. Two days before the Russia invasion of Ukraine, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline was stopped from coming online. A switch away from Nord Stream 1 would make the Ukrainian system indispensable—an asset the Kremlin would protect at all costs if it wants to keep its commitments to European customers and receive revenue from its gas sales. This could also discourage the Russians from indiscriminately attacking the pipeline system or civilian targets in Ukraine.
Once Nord Stream 1 is stopped, Russia will be forced to increase transit payments to Ukraine. When Gazprom ships gas to Europe via Nord Stream 1, it pays transit fees to the Russian state—essentially reimbursing itself. If Europe reroutes gas through Ukraine, Gazprom’s payments to the Russian state that are currently being used to finance the Kremlin’s brutal war would stop. As a result, the Ukrainian government would receive an estimated $500 million to $1.8 billion that could be used to directly help Ukrainian citizens impacted by this war. As the EU supports candidate status for Ukraine, such coordinated action naturally makes sense.
Rerouting gas flows from Nord Stream 1 would also not threaten the security of European and global gas supply. Before the construction of Nord Steam 1, the Ukrainian gas transit system, with more than 140 billion cubic meters of annual transit capacity, was the main route for delivering gas to Germany and Austria. The system was built with sufficient capacity to supply Europe.
In 2020, Germany made an exception to the EU rules that allowed for the completion of Nord Stream 1 based on the assumption that it would bring greater security and gas to Europe. Neither has proven correct. However, Europe has the power to make the continent more secure. Europe can change Russia’s calculus in Ukraine, it can make the protection of the Ukrainian transit system essential to the Kremlin’s plans. It can also force Russia to recognize the leverage European governments and consumers have over the future of Russian gas production, revenue, and long-term contracts—reversing the leverage Russia is now exercising. It sends a clear signal that Russia’s weaponization of gas in Europe will result in a weakened energy sector for years to come unless Russia changes its ways and stops its attack on Ukraine. Europe can stop the destruction of much more Ukrainian territory and the disastrous effects to civilian life. All of this by simply stopping the use of Nord Stream 1.
Ukrainians feel the effects of losing its gas leverage over Russia every day. They are in the siren warnings and the bombings that follow. They are in Russia’s mass atrocities in Bucha and its total devastation in Mariupol. They are in Ukrainian children, robbed of a childhood. We cannot allow them to also be robbed of a future that is Ukrainian. And at stake is not only the future of Ukraine, but the future of a free and democratic Europe. Ukraine is asking the West in the strong possible terms to protect its only remaining physical shield, not just for Ukraine, but for all of Europe. With the flip of a switch, Europe can protect itself from Russia’s energy weapon and help support future stability and peace in Europe.
