he global energy transition is at a critical juncture, with Africa’s clean energy ambitions facing significant challenges due to escalating global tariff rifts and the fossil fuel–centric policies of the current U.S. administration. These political shifts threaten to derail progress toward sustainable energy development across the continent. The resurgence of protectionist trade policies has reignited the global tariff wars, resulting in increased tariffs on essential clean energy technologies such as solar panels and batteries, disrupting global supply chains. While the tariffs aim to strengthen domestic industries in the U.S., they have inadvertently created ripple effects across global markets, prompting retaliatory measures and instigating a broader climate of economic uncertainty. These economic uncertainties, coupled with the Trump administration’s pro–fossil fuel agenda—including withdrawal from international climate agreements and backing for fossil fuel investments abroad—holds several important implications for Africa’s energy transition.
Increased fossil fuel investments
Trump’s pro-fossil fuel stance potentially encourages African governments, international oil companies, and investors to ramp up fossil fuel exploration and production on the continent. Take, for example, the reapproval of a $4.7 billion loan from the Export-Import Bank of the United States for Total Energies’ liquefied natural gas project in Mozambique. At the recent Africa CEO Forum, the President of Ghana called for increased oil investments, emphasizing that countries with oil assets “should be pumping like there is no tomorrow” and that “We’re rolling out the red carpet for anyone ready to drill.” While current geopolitical trends may favor such investments, caution must be taken not to counteract global sustainability commitments, potentially locking African economies into carbon–intensive pathways that might become economically and environmentally unsustainable in the longer term.
Higher deployment costs for renewable energy
Africa’s clean energy transition depends heavily on imported technologies, particularly from China—the world’s largest manufacturer of clean energy products such as solar panels and lithium-ion batteries—which has been the prime target for U.S. tariffs. Increased tariffs would translate into increased costs for solar panels and other clean energy equipment, making renewable energy projects less financially viable. South Africa, for example, recently proposed new tariffs on renewable energy components ranging from 5% on nickel and lead to 30% on screws, nuts, and bolts. Nonetheless, these tariffs are an attempt to stimulate domestic manufacturing to reduce dependence on imported equipment. Thus, the current tariff wars and supply chain disruptions also provide an opportunity for African countries to ramp up their investment in domestic production of clean energy equipment. This is a critical sector that requires significant attention given that the continent possesses a significant proportion of the world’s critical minerals for the energy transition including lithium, cobalt and nickel.
Slowed progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals
Africa’s pursuit of universal energy access (SDG 7) which is critical to achieving several other SDGs including SDG 3 (healthcare), SDG 4 (education), and SDG 13 (climate action), relies heavily on renewable energy technologies, particularly decentralized solar solutions. Higher deployment costs induced by tariff hikes could disrupt affordable access to these technologies, slowing the continent’s progress towards achieving the SDGs and exacerbating existing socio–economic disparities. Current policy efforts, whether for renewable energy or fossil fuel investment, must be guided by the principle of leaving no one behind, ensuring equitable development for all peoples on the continent.
Moving forward, the current global economic and political turmoil highlights not only Africa’s susceptibility to the inherent volatility of the global economic system but also its vulnerability to abrupt policy changes. Fossil fuel investments spurred by short–term political aspirations risk becoming stranded assets if future global policy shifts back toward robust climate action. With global trends increasingly favoring renewable and sustainable solutions, African policymakers must critically assess immediate economic opportunities in the context of potential long–term shifts toward sustainability.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations University.
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Africa’s energy future at crossroad amid tariff wars, policy shift
Darling Wind Farm in South Africa. Image by Warren via Flickr. CC BY-SA 2.0
August 11, 2025
Escalating tariffs and energy policies privileging fossil fuels among wealthier economies are threatening progress on sustainable energy development on the African continent. The dynamic illustrates how vulnerable Africa is to policy changes and economic volatility, writes UNU’s Mark M. Akrofi.
T
he global energy transition is at a critical juncture, with Africa’s clean energy ambitions facing significant challenges due to escalating global tariff rifts and the fossil fuel–centric policies of the current U.S. administration. These political shifts threaten to derail progress toward sustainable energy development across the continent. The resurgence of protectionist trade policies has reignited the global tariff wars, resulting in increased tariffs on essential clean energy technologies such as solar panels and batteries, disrupting global supply chains. While the tariffs aim to strengthen domestic industries in the U.S., they have inadvertently created ripple effects across global markets, prompting retaliatory measures and instigating a broader climate of economic uncertainty. These economic uncertainties, coupled with the Trump administration’s pro–fossil fuel agenda—including withdrawal from international climate agreements and backing for fossil fuel investments abroad—holds several important implications for Africa’s energy transition.
Increased fossil fuel investments
Trump’s pro-fossil fuel stance potentially encourages African governments, international oil companies, and investors to ramp up fossil fuel exploration and production on the continent. Take, for example, the reapproval of a $4.7 billion loan from the Export-Import Bank of the United States for Total Energies’ liquefied natural gas project in Mozambique. At the recent Africa CEO Forum, the President of Ghana called for increased oil investments, emphasizing that countries with oil assets “should be pumping like there is no tomorrow” and that “We’re rolling out the red carpet for anyone ready to drill.” While current geopolitical trends may favor such investments, caution must be taken not to counteract global sustainability commitments, potentially locking African economies into carbon–intensive pathways that might become economically and environmentally unsustainable in the longer term.
Higher deployment costs for renewable energy
Africa’s clean energy transition depends heavily on imported technologies, particularly from China—the world’s largest manufacturer of clean energy products such as solar panels and lithium-ion batteries—which has been the prime target for U.S. tariffs. Increased tariffs would translate into increased costs for solar panels and other clean energy equipment, making renewable energy projects less financially viable. South Africa, for example, recently proposed new tariffs on renewable energy components ranging from 5% on nickel and lead to 30% on screws, nuts, and bolts. Nonetheless, these tariffs are an attempt to stimulate domestic manufacturing to reduce dependence on imported equipment. Thus, the current tariff wars and supply chain disruptions also provide an opportunity for African countries to ramp up their investment in domestic production of clean energy equipment. This is a critical sector that requires significant attention given that the continent possesses a significant proportion of the world’s critical minerals for the energy transition including lithium, cobalt and nickel.
Slowed progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals
Africa’s pursuit of universal energy access (SDG 7) which is critical to achieving several other SDGs including SDG 3 (healthcare), SDG 4 (education), and SDG 13 (climate action), relies heavily on renewable energy technologies, particularly decentralized solar solutions. Higher deployment costs induced by tariff hikes could disrupt affordable access to these technologies, slowing the continent’s progress towards achieving the SDGs and exacerbating existing socio–economic disparities. Current policy efforts, whether for renewable energy or fossil fuel investment, must be guided by the principle of leaving no one behind, ensuring equitable development for all peoples on the continent.
Moving forward, the current global economic and political turmoil highlights not only Africa’s susceptibility to the inherent volatility of the global economic system but also its vulnerability to abrupt policy changes. Fossil fuel investments spurred by short–term political aspirations risk becoming stranded assets if future global policy shifts back toward robust climate action. With global trends increasingly favoring renewable and sustainable solutions, African policymakers must critically assess immediate economic opportunities in the context of potential long–term shifts toward sustainability.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations University.
