he 48th ASEAN Summit and Related Meetings convenes May 6 in Cebu, Philippines, with the theme, “Navigating Our Future, Together.” As chair, the Philippines has organized this year’s agenda around three main pillars: peace and security, prosperity corridors, and “people–centered ASEAN.” The latter encompasses both engagement with the welfare of migrant workers from the region (a core concern given the economic importance of remittance to many ASEAN members), and a focus on individual and community wellbeing and resilience under the Philippines’ RISE initiative. The 48th ASEAN Summit will also have a closely aligned event making its debut, the inaugural ASEAN–EU Sustainability Summit, on May 7.
Context
Global geopolitical and economic pressures haven’t subsided since the IMF–World Bank Spring Meetings in mid–April, and their impact is evident here. The summit’s usual five–day run time was cut to three days this year with hundreds of preparatory events going virtual. The cost–saving measure illustrates how much the economic situation has soured. It also gives a bellwether for what ASEAN finds most important: the new program scales down on less essential bloc activities “in order to save on expenses and focus on the most important” items, ASEAN Executive Secretary Ralph Racto said in a statement. We expected the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine (and their spreading impacts) to have a large influence on the ASEAN Summit’s agenda, but that impact is also structural.
Yet the war in Iran, global energy market volatility, and global trade fragmentation aren’t the only acute pressures facing ASEAN as leaders converge on Cebu. There are regional pressures as well, from confrontation with China (participating in ASEAN as a dialogue partner this year) over a new South China Sea Code of Conduct to Myanmar’s civil war and the delicate border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia.
What’s on the agenda
Heading into the 48th ASEAN Summit and Related Meetings, here’s what to expect:
A focus on Iran. In a March 27 interview with Philippine media, Philippine President and ASEAN Chair Ferdinand Marcos Jr. told reporters that ASEAN’s compressed agenda will be hyper–focused on how ASEAN will respond to regional shocks triggered by conflict in and around Iran. ASEAN leaders have been engaged with the evolving conflict, regularly releasing joint statements that call for both a cessation of hostilities and respect for rule of law—and UN conventions. It is likely that focus will be on full display in Cebu, with a focus on mitigating immediate regional impacts and bolstering regional resilience.
And impacts of energy volatility. Energy volatility or energy crisis, ASEAN members are feeling it more severely than most—most of their energy imports come through the Strait of Hormuz. But the secondary effects of energy price surges are also already being felt. On May 1, ASEAN economic ministers released a joint statement where they warned rising energy and transport costs are already impacting food systems and could disrupt supply chains. Members are expected to sign a deal on fuel sharing at the summit and ASEAN energy ministers recently released a statement reaffirming the need to diversify energy regionally—both diversification of fossil fuel supply and a commitment to developing clean energy alternatives at scale. Energy supply isn’t the only concern. The region also faces a looming food security crisis and a fiscal shock from “remittance” risk as migrant workers in the Middle East as the war with Iran disrupts their work, their security, and their ability to send remittances from their salaries home.
Incremental progress on a South China Sea agreement. In July 2023, ASEAN and China agreed to guidelines for a presumptive South China Sea Code of Conduct (COC), intended to manage tensions between China and ASEAN members over overlapping territorial and maritime claims. Those guidelines include a deadline: July 2026. Even with so much focus on the impacts of the Iran war, there is a sense of urgency here, and China is attending this year’s summit as a dialogue partner. Most analysis is not optimistic. Analysts expect incremental progress on the South China COC, but expect no resolution. Internal division with ASEAN is partly to blame. Depending on history and geography, ASEAN members have very different relationships with China. On the one hand, you have the Philippines, which is committed to a legally binding South China COC and consistent with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. This position is also held by Japan. On the other you have members without or with fewer maritime disputes who may be reluctant to antagonize China over issues that don’t directly impact them.
Evolving ASEAN–EU relationship on sustainability. This year, the broader ASEAN Summit will act as the umbrella for the inaugural ASEAN–EU Sustainability Summit. The gathering’s agenda is shaped around the Philippines’ sustainability priorities for ASEAN during its chairmanship—priorities informed in part by deeply disrupted energy markets and supply. The ASEAN–EU Sustainability Summit has clear aims: address structural funding gaps on green finance, circular economy development, bolster sustainable trade and supply chain integrity, support climate resilience in agriculture, and elevate public–private partnerships on sustainable development. Green finance is a particular sticking point, with some ASEAN members bearing genuine grievances at the EU JETP mechanism’s failure to meet its commitments.
What they’re saying
Stronger energy connectivity will allow ASEAN to share resources more efficiently and build resilience against external shocks. Philippines Secretary of Trade and Industry Cristina Roque
We’re facing multiple crises at once…that no party can address alone. ASEAN and the EU should look to each other for a reliable, long–term partnership built on shared ambitions for sustainable economic growth. EU–ASEAN Business Council Executive Director Chris Humphrey
We believe that the COC should be effective, substantive, and consistent with the UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea). Japanese Ambassador to the Philippines Endo Kazuya
[T]he disruptions will not stop at energy. Fertiliser, food and other essential inputs will be hit next. We can expect shortages in more items to emerge. Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong
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At ASEAN Summit, navigating troubled waters, together
Image via Adobe Stock.
May 5, 2026
As ASEAN leaders and dialogue partners descend on Cebu for an abbreviated 48th ASEAN Summit and Related Meetings, the focus is firmly on Iran. While the summit will not only be about crisis response, energy prices and their implications are expected to dominate conversations.
T
he 48th ASEAN Summit and Related Meetings convenes May 6 in Cebu, Philippines, with the theme, “Navigating Our Future, Together.” As chair, the Philippines has organized this year’s agenda around three main pillars: peace and security, prosperity corridors, and “people–centered ASEAN.” The latter encompasses both engagement with the welfare of migrant workers from the region (a core concern given the economic importance of remittance to many ASEAN members), and a focus on individual and community wellbeing and resilience under the Philippines’ RISE initiative. The 48th ASEAN Summit will also have a closely aligned event making its debut, the inaugural ASEAN–EU Sustainability Summit, on May 7.
Context
Global geopolitical and economic pressures haven’t subsided since the IMF–World Bank Spring Meetings in mid–April, and their impact is evident here. The summit’s usual five–day run time was cut to three days this year with hundreds of preparatory events going virtual. The cost–saving measure illustrates how much the economic situation has soured. It also gives a bellwether for what ASEAN finds most important: the new program scales down on less essential bloc activities “in order to save on expenses and focus on the most important” items, ASEAN Executive Secretary Ralph Racto said in a statement. We expected the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine (and their spreading impacts) to have a large influence on the ASEAN Summit’s agenda, but that impact is also structural.
Yet the war in Iran, global energy market volatility, and global trade fragmentation aren’t the only acute pressures facing ASEAN as leaders converge on Cebu. There are regional pressures as well, from confrontation with China (participating in ASEAN as a dialogue partner this year) over a new South China Sea Code of Conduct to Myanmar’s civil war and the delicate border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia.
What’s on the agenda
Heading into the 48th ASEAN Summit and Related Meetings, here’s what to expect:
A focus on Iran. In a March 27 interview with Philippine media, Philippine President and ASEAN Chair Ferdinand Marcos Jr. told reporters that ASEAN’s compressed agenda will be hyper–focused on how ASEAN will respond to regional shocks triggered by conflict in and around Iran. ASEAN leaders have been engaged with the evolving conflict, regularly releasing joint statements that call for both a cessation of hostilities and respect for rule of law—and UN conventions. It is likely that focus will be on full display in Cebu, with a focus on mitigating immediate regional impacts and bolstering regional resilience.
And impacts of energy volatility. Energy volatility or energy crisis, ASEAN members are feeling it more severely than most—most of their energy imports come through the Strait of Hormuz. But the secondary effects of energy price surges are also already being felt. On May 1, ASEAN economic ministers released a joint statement where they warned rising energy and transport costs are already impacting food systems and could disrupt supply chains. Members are expected to sign a deal on fuel sharing at the summit and ASEAN energy ministers recently released a statement reaffirming the need to diversify energy regionally—both diversification of fossil fuel supply and a commitment to developing clean energy alternatives at scale. Energy supply isn’t the only concern. The region also faces a looming food security crisis and a fiscal shock from “remittance” risk as migrant workers in the Middle East as the war with Iran disrupts their work, their security, and their ability to send remittances from their salaries home.
Incremental progress on a South China Sea agreement. In July 2023, ASEAN and China agreed to guidelines for a presumptive South China Sea Code of Conduct (COC), intended to manage tensions between China and ASEAN members over overlapping territorial and maritime claims. Those guidelines include a deadline: July 2026. Even with so much focus on the impacts of the Iran war, there is a sense of urgency here, and China is attending this year’s summit as a dialogue partner. Most analysis is not optimistic. Analysts expect incremental progress on the South China COC, but expect no resolution. Internal division with ASEAN is partly to blame. Depending on history and geography, ASEAN members have very different relationships with China. On the one hand, you have the Philippines, which is committed to a legally binding South China COC and consistent with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. This position is also held by Japan. On the other you have members without or with fewer maritime disputes who may be reluctant to antagonize China over issues that don’t directly impact them.
Evolving ASEAN–EU relationship on sustainability. This year, the broader ASEAN Summit will act as the umbrella for the inaugural ASEAN–EU Sustainability Summit. The gathering’s agenda is shaped around the Philippines’ sustainability priorities for ASEAN during its chairmanship—priorities informed in part by deeply disrupted energy markets and supply. The ASEAN–EU Sustainability Summit has clear aims: address structural funding gaps on green finance, circular economy development, bolster sustainable trade and supply chain integrity, support climate resilience in agriculture, and elevate public–private partnerships on sustainable development. Green finance is a particular sticking point, with some ASEAN members bearing genuine grievances at the EU JETP mechanism’s failure to meet its commitments.
What they’re saying
Stronger energy connectivity will allow ASEAN to share resources more efficiently and build resilience against external shocks. Philippines Secretary of Trade and Industry Cristina Roque
We’re facing multiple crises at once…that no party can address alone. ASEAN and the EU should look to each other for a reliable, long–term partnership built on shared ambitions for sustainable economic growth. EU–ASEAN Business Council Executive Director Chris Humphrey
We believe that the COC should be effective, substantive, and consistent with the UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea). Japanese Ambassador to the Philippines Endo Kazuya
[T]he disruptions will not stop at energy. Fertiliser, food and other essential inputs will be hit next. We can expect shortages in more items to emerge. Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong
