Could the developments of 2012 be as fascinating and global order-changing as 2011's were? According to all the thinkers you will read below, 2012 could be the year all the turmoil from 2011 is actualized. Whether that is through more violence or peaceful means is yet to be seen.
China: Economic Reforms and Soft Power – Paul Nash
The year 2012 will be a critical year of leadership transition in China, one in which policymakers will refocus attention on domestic concerns such as high inflation, poor healthcare, social inequalities and wealth disparities, partly to facilitate a smooth and peaceful generational transfer of power that has occurred only three times in the PRC's history. (The first two were blighted by the Cultural Revolution and Tiananmen Square.) As foreign demand for Chinese goods continues to decelerate, property markets weaken and economic growth dips below 8 percent for the first time since 1998, China will deepen and accelerate reforms intended to expand domestic consumption and encourage technological innovation in manufacturing. A stronger emphasis will fall on protecting intellectual property rights and tackling pollution. Regional frictions with Japan, South Korea and India have the potential to intensify. Cross-Strait relations will deteriorate significantly if the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) wins the January presidential elections in Taiwan. Globally, China will step up its program of cultural and diplomatic soft-power in an effort to enhance its image abroad as an internationally responsible nation. It will seek to depoliticize economic disputes, particularly with the United States as American presidential candidates invoke U.S.-China trade controversies during their election campaigns.
Middle East/North Africa: Wave of Change Leaves Questions and Challenges – Steve Lutes
While the calendar year may be concluding, changes unleashed across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) under the umbrella of the Arab Spring remain works-in-progress and will have consequences—political, diplomatic, security, economic and cultural—for the individual nations affected, the region, and the world in 2012 and beyond. In most cases, these major transformations have inspired new questions and daunting challenges. Will the monarchies and sheikdoms continue to hold the forces of change at bay? Will Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fall and what would follow? Can the National Transitional Council (NTC) in Libya successfully conduct an election next year, or will the rebel coalition fracture and the country become a Somalia-like state? Will the agreement negotiated by Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) hold as a way forward in Yemen? What type of authority and representation will emerge in the nations where long-standing autocrats were deposed? The answers to these and other issues will likely only manifest more questions.
But through this fog of uncertainty, two trends are emerging that will have immediate impacts in 2012 with the first being the ascent of Islamist parties to seats of power. An election in Tunisia brought the Islamist Ennahda Party to power, and the first two electoral rounds bode well for the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party in Egypt. While much of the discussion about how these Islamist parties will govern centers on the degree to which they may be inclusive and temper their stances on cultural issues, one thing is certain; the turmoil hit their economies hard and their ability to bring about economic stability and growth will impact how their leadership is judged by the masses. These Islamist governments may keep the United States at arm’s length in certain areas of engagement, but it is likely they will be interested in pursuing a more robust economic relationship. This presents the United States with an opportunity to engage Egypt next year by facilitating negotiations of a free trade agreement, the benefits of which could extend far beyond commercial interests if the U.S. is viewed as an economic partner during this transition period. And because it would be politically untenable for the U.S. to do so if Egypt broke its peace accord with Israel, the treaty should remain in place. The second trend is a more stalwart alliance of the six-nation, Saudi-dominated GCC as a reaction to the perceived threats of Iran and popular protests and revolts. In 2012, it is likely the GCC nations will heed the recent call by Saudi King Abdullah to form a “single entity” to further integrate their military forces and intelligence apparatuses as well as potentially add Jordan and Morocco as members. Such a move could forebode an intervention in Yemen should the governing agreement fall apart and security conditions further deteriorate. While a wave of historic transformations fell across MENA in 2011, what the future holds will be determined in 2012 and for years to come as the wake of change continues to ripple throughout the region.
Europe: Rebuilding – Anne Kathrin Steven
The New Year will start off with a few changes for the European Union: Denmark will start holding the rotating presidency of the EU Council for the next six months followed by Cyprus, which will take over during the second half of the year. In its presidency program, Denmark already announced that it is planning to shape European politics with a focus on green and sustainable policies. In March 2012, a new inter-governmental treaty is scheduled to be signed – potentially leading the way out of financial instabilities and towards a fiscal union. It remains to be seen if the required referenda will go smoothly. Nevertheless, once it has been ratified by nine of the 17 Eurozone members, the treaty will enter into force. In addition, the many new governments that have been elected this year (Ireland, Portugal, Denmark, Greece, Italy, Slovenia, Spain, and Belgium) will have to prove that they are capable of facing the Union’s many challenges in a more constructive way. Europe will need to roll up its sleeves in 2012 – it is surely going to be another exciting year.
Latin and South America: Emerging Markets Play a Larger Role - Oscar Montealegre
Latin America is on the cusp of something very special. Emerging markets such as Peru, Uruguay, and Colombia will become more en vogue, courting more attention from investors, analysts, and journalists. Brazil is already a hot spot for investors, and Chile is increasingly fostering an environment where investment and entrepreneurship is being welcomed at an unprecedented level, Latin America’s current boom is still in its infant stages; however, it is important that politicians do not derail the momentum. The New Year will also be pivotal for Latin America as a regional bloc, leading to one of two possible developments: either there will be a wider gap between the open market economies and the centralized, protectionist economies such as Venezuela and Bolivia, creating a Latin America fragmented by economics and more or less political principles; or Latin America decides to become more united, stealing a page from the European Union (despite its current malaise), planting the seeds towards a more relevant Latin America, spearheaded by Brazil & Co. Also, keep an eye on Mexico – undeterred by the gross violence between the drug cartels and the state, Mexico has held its ground economically, quietly solidifying a middle class and attracting foreign direct investment, shaping itself as a potential healthy rival to Brazil’s ascendancy.
The United Nations: Humanitarian Aid and International Security- Casey Coombs
In 2012, the UN’s attention will be focused on humanitarian emergencies and international security threats arising from ongoing revolts in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), which may well spread down the African continent. Expect the Security Council (UNSC) to continue arguing over what to do with Assad's Syria. But don’t expect too much from the talks. After its controversial authorization of a NATO intervention in Libya, the Council has been deadlocked on coercive action elsewhere. Palestine will likely present another opportunity for deadlock, when it brings its much-vaunted statehood bid to the UNSC for a promised U.S. veto.
UN relief agencies, for their part, are preparing for unprecedented action. Turtle Bay and its partners recently made the largest appeal for humanitarian relief aid, $7.7 billion, since 1991, in response not only to the spike in man-made conflicts scattered across MENA, but the increasing frequency of natural disasters across the globe. On a lighter note, the UN will showcase in June its much anticipated Rio+20 conference on sustainable development. Amidst gloomy economic forecasts, however, the likelihood of world leaders cutting planet-saving deals on sustainability issues like climate change will be low. UN wonks may have erred in naming 2012 “The International Year of Co-operatives.”
Insurgencies: Upward Trajectory – Uddipan Mukherjee
The year 2011 happened to be a singularly remarkable year insofar as insurgencies and terrorism were concerned since the month of May marked the death of Osama bin Laden – a pinnacle for counterterrorism and counterinsurgency (COIN) whereas the insurgents in Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Yemen and other parts of the world felt the touch of the nadir; at least psychologically, if not materially and operationally.
In this backdrop, it seems verily pre-ordained that non-state actors are likely to lose steam in the New Year. However, it is pertinent to quote the predictions of the National Intelligence Council of USA: “The relative power of non-state actors is likely to have an upward trend by 2025.”
Hence, terrorism will likely continue, as per the prediction, but its appeal could lessen if economic growth emerges and consequent youth unemployment is reduced. It may be said that 2012 would certainly provide a range of technologies and scientific knowledge to the insurgents and terrorist networks. Under economic duress, conditions shall be ripe for radicalism and possible recruitment of youths into terrorist groups. South and Central Asia, Middle East and North Africa remain as the potential areas of unrest.
It may not be frippery to predict that irregular warfare would rule the roost in 2012. In the process, urban areas would possibly be targeted more. Insurgencies are likely to be fueled by various elements, such as ideology; social, economic, and political oppression; internally displaced peoples etc. Communist insurgents in Philippines and India would stick to their faith in protracted people’s war. Dormant insurgencies, such as in Sri Lanka, may shoot up if the Winning Hearts and Minds (WHAM) component of the COIN operations are not suitably put into practice.
Conflict resolution methodology would bank upon the dual techniques of pro-people COIN as well as targeted killings and incarcerations. Procedural law will keep on being implemented while the substantive part may be missing in the magistracy of the counterinsurgents.
The World at 7 Billion – Michele Acuto
One of the key issues due to emerge across both academic and practitioners' landscapes of international politics is that of demographics: humanity has just turned 7 billion. While the issue has for long remained on the sidelines, the sheer levels of global population have returned under the spotlight as the UN Population Fund set, somewhat fictitiously, October the 31st, 2011 as the mark signaling another billionaire threshold for humanity. As the report put it, the problems and possibilities in a world at 7 billion are of paramount importance for a plethora of key questions currently setting the international debate. Overpopulation and high fertility rates are of direct influence on cross-cutting challenges such as those of development, poverty or human rights. Likewise, growing numbers also impact the manageability of climate change or the rapid response to transnational health crises such as those of pandemics, while also stressing even further problems of infrastructural flexibility, housing and fair access to basic welfare services. Besides, the global surge in population has also struck at the heart of many imaginaries in the present financial turmoil, leading several commentators to question how such growth rates will impact the crises already vexing the fragile state of the global economy.
The UN’s report set this out in a fairly optimistic light, stressing the extensive possibilities that a world at 7 billion brings about. It is necessary, it pointed out, not to take this development as an insurmountable challenge and, more importantly, to understand its pervasiveness across the varied spectrum of human security. Yet to do so, it is imperative to step beyond the dominant rhetoric. As it too often happens with another dominant rate of our time, that of urbanization, these startling numbers need not to become the only object of the international debate. So, as much as we should delve much further into the complexity of a humanity that has become predominantly urbanized and is projected to see three quarters of the world’s population to be living in cities by 2050, the “7 billion” problem needs not to become the object of the discourse. Rather, as it will rapidly creep in the discussion of diplomats in 2012, the extent of the population’s growth should be but the beginning of a far more prolific conversation. One that digs deeper into the health, environmental and socio-economic features of this momentous change, and it reconnects it to other essential trends of the 21st century like climate change or urbanization.
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A Look Ahead: 2012 Predictions
December 30, 2011
Could the developments of 2012 be as fascinating and global order-changing as 2011's were? According to all the thinkers you will read below, 2012 could be the year all the turmoil from 2011 is actualized. Whether that is through more violence or peaceful means is yet to be seen.
China: Economic Reforms and Soft Power – Paul Nash
The year 2012 will be a critical year of leadership transition in China, one in which policymakers will refocus attention on domestic concerns such as high inflation, poor healthcare, social inequalities and wealth disparities, partly to facilitate a smooth and peaceful generational transfer of power that has occurred only three times in the PRC's history. (The first two were blighted by the Cultural Revolution and Tiananmen Square.) As foreign demand for Chinese goods continues to decelerate, property markets weaken and economic growth dips below 8 percent for the first time since 1998, China will deepen and accelerate reforms intended to expand domestic consumption and encourage technological innovation in manufacturing. A stronger emphasis will fall on protecting intellectual property rights and tackling pollution. Regional frictions with Japan, South Korea and India have the potential to intensify. Cross-Strait relations will deteriorate significantly if the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) wins the January presidential elections in Taiwan. Globally, China will step up its program of cultural and diplomatic soft-power in an effort to enhance its image abroad as an internationally responsible nation. It will seek to depoliticize economic disputes, particularly with the United States as American presidential candidates invoke U.S.-China trade controversies during their election campaigns.
Middle East/North Africa: Wave of Change Leaves Questions and Challenges – Steve Lutes
While the calendar year may be concluding, changes unleashed across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) under the umbrella of the Arab Spring remain works-in-progress and will have consequences—political, diplomatic, security, economic and cultural—for the individual nations affected, the region, and the world in 2012 and beyond. In most cases, these major transformations have inspired new questions and daunting challenges. Will the monarchies and sheikdoms continue to hold the forces of change at bay? Will Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fall and what would follow? Can the National Transitional Council (NTC) in Libya successfully conduct an election next year, or will the rebel coalition fracture and the country become a Somalia-like state? Will the agreement negotiated by Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) hold as a way forward in Yemen? What type of authority and representation will emerge in the nations where long-standing autocrats were deposed? The answers to these and other issues will likely only manifest more questions.
But through this fog of uncertainty, two trends are emerging that will have immediate impacts in 2012 with the first being the ascent of Islamist parties to seats of power. An election in Tunisia brought the Islamist Ennahda Party to power, and the first two electoral rounds bode well for the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party in Egypt. While much of the discussion about how these Islamist parties will govern centers on the degree to which they may be inclusive and temper their stances on cultural issues, one thing is certain; the turmoil hit their economies hard and their ability to bring about economic stability and growth will impact how their leadership is judged by the masses. These Islamist governments may keep the United States at arm’s length in certain areas of engagement, but it is likely they will be interested in pursuing a more robust economic relationship. This presents the United States with an opportunity to engage Egypt next year by facilitating negotiations of a free trade agreement, the benefits of which could extend far beyond commercial interests if the U.S. is viewed as an economic partner during this transition period. And because it would be politically untenable for the U.S. to do so if Egypt broke its peace accord with Israel, the treaty should remain in place. The second trend is a more stalwart alliance of the six-nation, Saudi-dominated GCC as a reaction to the perceived threats of Iran and popular protests and revolts. In 2012, it is likely the GCC nations will heed the recent call by Saudi King Abdullah to form a “single entity” to further integrate their military forces and intelligence apparatuses as well as potentially add Jordan and Morocco as members. Such a move could forebode an intervention in Yemen should the governing agreement fall apart and security conditions further deteriorate. While a wave of historic transformations fell across MENA in 2011, what the future holds will be determined in 2012 and for years to come as the wake of change continues to ripple throughout the region.
Europe: Rebuilding – Anne Kathrin Steven
The New Year will start off with a few changes for the European Union: Denmark will start holding the rotating presidency of the EU Council for the next six months followed by Cyprus, which will take over during the second half of the year. In its presidency program, Denmark already announced that it is planning to shape European politics with a focus on green and sustainable policies. In March 2012, a new inter-governmental treaty is scheduled to be signed – potentially leading the way out of financial instabilities and towards a fiscal union. It remains to be seen if the required referenda will go smoothly. Nevertheless, once it has been ratified by nine of the 17 Eurozone members, the treaty will enter into force. In addition, the many new governments that have been elected this year (Ireland, Portugal, Denmark, Greece, Italy, Slovenia, Spain, and Belgium) will have to prove that they are capable of facing the Union’s many challenges in a more constructive way. Europe will need to roll up its sleeves in 2012 – it is surely going to be another exciting year.
Latin and South America: Emerging Markets Play a Larger Role - Oscar Montealegre
Latin America is on the cusp of something very special. Emerging markets such as Peru, Uruguay, and Colombia will become more en vogue, courting more attention from investors, analysts, and journalists. Brazil is already a hot spot for investors, and Chile is increasingly fostering an environment where investment and entrepreneurship is being welcomed at an unprecedented level, Latin America’s current boom is still in its infant stages; however, it is important that politicians do not derail the momentum. The New Year will also be pivotal for Latin America as a regional bloc, leading to one of two possible developments: either there will be a wider gap between the open market economies and the centralized, protectionist economies such as Venezuela and Bolivia, creating a Latin America fragmented by economics and more or less political principles; or Latin America decides to become more united, stealing a page from the European Union (despite its current malaise), planting the seeds towards a more relevant Latin America, spearheaded by Brazil & Co. Also, keep an eye on Mexico – undeterred by the gross violence between the drug cartels and the state, Mexico has held its ground economically, quietly solidifying a middle class and attracting foreign direct investment, shaping itself as a potential healthy rival to Brazil’s ascendancy.
The United Nations: Humanitarian Aid and International Security- Casey Coombs
In 2012, the UN’s attention will be focused on humanitarian emergencies and international security threats arising from ongoing revolts in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), which may well spread down the African continent. Expect the Security Council (UNSC) to continue arguing over what to do with Assad's Syria. But don’t expect too much from the talks. After its controversial authorization of a NATO intervention in Libya, the Council has been deadlocked on coercive action elsewhere. Palestine will likely present another opportunity for deadlock, when it brings its much-vaunted statehood bid to the UNSC for a promised U.S. veto.
UN relief agencies, for their part, are preparing for unprecedented action. Turtle Bay and its partners recently made the largest appeal for humanitarian relief aid, $7.7 billion, since 1991, in response not only to the spike in man-made conflicts scattered across MENA, but the increasing frequency of natural disasters across the globe. On a lighter note, the UN will showcase in June its much anticipated Rio+20 conference on sustainable development. Amidst gloomy economic forecasts, however, the likelihood of world leaders cutting planet-saving deals on sustainability issues like climate change will be low. UN wonks may have erred in naming 2012 “The International Year of Co-operatives.”
Insurgencies: Upward Trajectory – Uddipan Mukherjee
The year 2011 happened to be a singularly remarkable year insofar as insurgencies and terrorism were concerned since the month of May marked the death of Osama bin Laden – a pinnacle for counterterrorism and counterinsurgency (COIN) whereas the insurgents in Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Yemen and other parts of the world felt the touch of the nadir; at least psychologically, if not materially and operationally.
In this backdrop, it seems verily pre-ordained that non-state actors are likely to lose steam in the New Year. However, it is pertinent to quote the predictions of the National Intelligence Council of USA: “The relative power of non-state actors is likely to have an upward trend by 2025.”
Hence, terrorism will likely continue, as per the prediction, but its appeal could lessen if economic growth emerges and consequent youth unemployment is reduced. It may be said that 2012 would certainly provide a range of technologies and scientific knowledge to the insurgents and terrorist networks. Under economic duress, conditions shall be ripe for radicalism and possible recruitment of youths into terrorist groups. South and Central Asia, Middle East and North Africa remain as the potential areas of unrest.
It may not be frippery to predict that irregular warfare would rule the roost in 2012. In the process, urban areas would possibly be targeted more. Insurgencies are likely to be fueled by various elements, such as ideology; social, economic, and political oppression; internally displaced peoples etc. Communist insurgents in Philippines and India would stick to their faith in protracted people’s war. Dormant insurgencies, such as in Sri Lanka, may shoot up if the Winning Hearts and Minds (WHAM) component of the COIN operations are not suitably put into practice.
Conflict resolution methodology would bank upon the dual techniques of pro-people COIN as well as targeted killings and incarcerations. Procedural law will keep on being implemented while the substantive part may be missing in the magistracy of the counterinsurgents.
The World at 7 Billion – Michele Acuto
One of the key issues due to emerge across both academic and practitioners' landscapes of international politics is that of demographics: humanity has just turned 7 billion. While the issue has for long remained on the sidelines, the sheer levels of global population have returned under the spotlight as the UN Population Fund set, somewhat fictitiously, October the 31st, 2011 as the mark signaling another billionaire threshold for humanity. As the report put it, the problems and possibilities in a world at 7 billion are of paramount importance for a plethora of key questions currently setting the international debate. Overpopulation and high fertility rates are of direct influence on cross-cutting challenges such as those of development, poverty or human rights. Likewise, growing numbers also impact the manageability of climate change or the rapid response to transnational health crises such as those of pandemics, while also stressing even further problems of infrastructural flexibility, housing and fair access to basic welfare services. Besides, the global surge in population has also struck at the heart of many imaginaries in the present financial turmoil, leading several commentators to question how such growth rates will impact the crises already vexing the fragile state of the global economy.
The UN’s report set this out in a fairly optimistic light, stressing the extensive possibilities that a world at 7 billion brings about. It is necessary, it pointed out, not to take this development as an insurmountable challenge and, more importantly, to understand its pervasiveness across the varied spectrum of human security. Yet to do so, it is imperative to step beyond the dominant rhetoric. As it too often happens with another dominant rate of our time, that of urbanization, these startling numbers need not to become the only object of the international debate. So, as much as we should delve much further into the complexity of a humanity that has become predominantly urbanized and is projected to see three quarters of the world’s population to be living in cities by 2050, the “7 billion” problem needs not to become the object of the discourse. Rather, as it will rapidly creep in the discussion of diplomats in 2012, the extent of the population’s growth should be but the beginning of a far more prolific conversation. One that digs deeper into the health, environmental and socio-economic features of this momentous change, and it reconnects it to other essential trends of the 21st century like climate change or urbanization.
