As China leaps and bounds toward superpower power status, its newfound sense of entitlement—expressed one day as assertive hubris, another as pacific humility—is fascinating friends and foes alike, the latter often disguised as the former. Brazil, Russia, India and South America are becoming particularly adept at putting on a smile while gritting their teeth in China’s presence, the reason being they are China’s peer group—and immediate competition. The five rapidly developing nations, together known as BRICS, are the next generation of world powers—some, arguably, even superpowers.
On April 14, Beijing played host of the BRICS Summit, an annual talk shop at which the rising powers discuss ways to increase economic and diplomatic cooperation within their group and leverage the western-dominated global order in their favor.
A notable takeaway of this year’s Summit was China’s cooperative, overly friendly disposition. The smiling host’s behavior punctuates a recent mood swing compared to several fits in 2010. Perhaps the most prominent example of assertiveness last year came when it supported North Korea’s attack on the South, citing territorial sovereignty issues. China’s lack of condemnation of a rogue nuclear state using surprise military force not only alarmed the U.S. and its traditional allies in Asia, but India as well, which has been embroiled in a territorial dispute over the Jammu and Kashmir region with its Sino neighbor for years. Another display of boldness involved China flexing its newfound naval muscle in the South China Sea, an area in which the American Navy has long patrolled uncontested, again justifying its actions on the basis of territorial sovereignty. Acting upon long disputed territorial matters likely reflects a growing confidence that it is strong enough to face the consequences of retribution from adversaries.
New Year’s Resolution: Play Nice
In the months leading up to the BRICS Summit—despite continued deployment of naval forces, military expansions, and support for North Korea—China’s bold assertions of power have been replaced by open-armed accommodations both with the broader international community and within the BRICS. Regarding the latter, Indian ties have strengthened through a conciliatory agreement on the Jammu-Kashmir issue, Chinese officials recently negotiated significant business and investment deals with Brazil’s new president, Sino-Russian natural gas talks are progressing as expected for an agreement in upcoming months, and South Africa has been assured by Beijing that their relations will not be based solely on an insatiable hunger for natural resources. In the broader global community, too, China’s stance has softened in 2011, evidenced by the resumption of six-party talks, investments in Spain to help spur European economic recovery, and increased diplomatic communications with the U.S.
So what to make of the up-and-coming-superpower’s volte-face? STRATFOR argues the open-armed foreign policy approach is a pragmatic response to rising internal tensions, namely the budding pro-democracy “Jasmine” movement—named after the “Jasmine Revolution” that culminated in the fall of the Tunisian government. Overly assertive behavior both domestically and abroad would undoubtedly expose China to opportunistic incursions from foes abroad, whether in the form of human rights-related sanctions by the Triad if Jasmine movement crackdowns start to evolve toward Tiananmen Square proportions, or evidence other BRICS members could cite for luring business away from China.
Although the BRICS are different in virtually all respects save rate of industrialization, a united front against the established western-dominated global order based on that similarity could be critical to their future(s). But solidarity does not come so easily: China’s recent attempts to strengthen or re-strengthen ties with its eclectic peer group should not be perceived by any of them as a lasting foreign policy stance, but a momentary retreat toward more pressing domestic issues. Perhaps the Asian juggernaut’s vulnerability during the present period should be exploited by the other rapidly rising powers, for next week, month, or year, China’s growing sense of entitlement may trump the more statesman-like mood it is currently in.
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2011 BRICS Summit: Smiling Through Gritted Teeth
April 15, 2011
As China leaps and bounds toward superpower power status, its newfound sense of entitlement—expressed one day as assertive hubris, another as pacific humility—is fascinating friends and foes alike, the latter often disguised as the former. Brazil, Russia, India and South America are becoming particularly adept at putting on a smile while gritting their teeth in China’s presence, the reason being they are China’s peer group—and immediate competition. The five rapidly developing nations, together known as BRICS, are the next generation of world powers—some, arguably, even superpowers.
On April 14, Beijing played host of the BRICS Summit, an annual talk shop at which the rising powers discuss ways to increase economic and diplomatic cooperation within their group and leverage the western-dominated global order in their favor.
A notable takeaway of this year’s Summit was China’s cooperative, overly friendly disposition. The smiling host’s behavior punctuates a recent mood swing compared to several fits in 2010. Perhaps the most prominent example of assertiveness last year came when it supported North Korea’s attack on the South, citing territorial sovereignty issues. China’s lack of condemnation of a rogue nuclear state using surprise military force not only alarmed the U.S. and its traditional allies in Asia, but India as well, which has been embroiled in a territorial dispute over the Jammu and Kashmir region with its Sino neighbor for years. Another display of boldness involved China flexing its newfound naval muscle in the South China Sea, an area in which the American Navy has long patrolled uncontested, again justifying its actions on the basis of territorial sovereignty. Acting upon long disputed territorial matters likely reflects a growing confidence that it is strong enough to face the consequences of retribution from adversaries.
New Year’s Resolution: Play Nice
In the months leading up to the BRICS Summit—despite continued deployment of naval forces, military expansions, and support for North Korea—China’s bold assertions of power have been replaced by open-armed accommodations both with the broader international community and within the BRICS. Regarding the latter, Indian ties have strengthened through a conciliatory agreement on the Jammu-Kashmir issue, Chinese officials recently negotiated significant business and investment deals with Brazil’s new president, Sino-Russian natural gas talks are progressing as expected for an agreement in upcoming months, and South Africa has been assured by Beijing that their relations will not be based solely on an insatiable hunger for natural resources. In the broader global community, too, China’s stance has softened in 2011, evidenced by the resumption of six-party talks, investments in Spain to help spur European economic recovery, and increased diplomatic communications with the U.S.
So what to make of the up-and-coming-superpower’s volte-face? STRATFOR argues the open-armed foreign policy approach is a pragmatic response to rising internal tensions, namely the budding pro-democracy “Jasmine” movement—named after the “Jasmine Revolution” that culminated in the fall of the Tunisian government. Overly assertive behavior both domestically and abroad would undoubtedly expose China to opportunistic incursions from foes abroad, whether in the form of human rights-related sanctions by the Triad if Jasmine movement crackdowns start to evolve toward Tiananmen Square proportions, or evidence other BRICS members could cite for luring business away from China.
Although the BRICS are different in virtually all respects save rate of industrialization, a united front against the established western-dominated global order based on that similarity could be critical to their future(s). But solidarity does not come so easily: China’s recent attempts to strengthen or re-strengthen ties with its eclectic peer group should not be perceived by any of them as a lasting foreign policy stance, but a momentary retreat toward more pressing domestic issues. Perhaps the Asian juggernaut’s vulnerability during the present period should be exploited by the other rapidly rising powers, for next week, month, or year, China’s growing sense of entitlement may trump the more statesman-like mood it is currently in.
