Recent public upheavals in Brazil and Turkey; the ouster of Mohamed Morsi; riots by Muslim Brotherhood supporters in Egypt—it all begs the question: why do people protest? People tend to form groups of more developed organisms—societies which have governing bodies. But today modern societies everywhere are rapidly maturing both in political and economic terms everywhere on Earth, and oppression is no longer good business. The modern individual is educated enough desire a more reliable society, and the new middle classes will worl to replace failed government with more robust ones.
"Today, efficacy is the challenge," as Tony Blair puts it vis-à-vis recent protests in Cairo. When governments do not deliver, people protest, but 17 million people in the street is not the same thing as an election. However, it is an incredible manifestation of people power. “I am a strong supporter of democracy," Blair continued. "But democratic government alone does not guarantee effective government. When governments do not deliver, people protest. They don’t want to wait for an election. In fact, as Turkey and Brazil show, people may protest even when, by any objective measure, their countries have made huge progress.”
It is clear what people in the developing world want from their governments: better conditions, good infrastructure, human rights, etc. Brazil’s case is particularly interesting, as the country is the second largest developing economy in the world after China. However, the Rousseff administration is failing to improve critical infrastructure and the business environment. On the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Index, Brazil is ranked 130 out of a total of 185 countries. Inflation is on the rise, and the cost of living is absurdly high for a developing nation. "This isn’t Turkey, I don’t think we’ll see daily or even weekly protests in the near future, but with the election next year and the World Cup, that could change. People won’t lack for reasons to protest.” says Rafael Cortez to TIME.
As the populations of developing countries continue to growing, outstripping the ability of governments to provide, we are witnessing an unprecedented increase in demands of their governments. About 96 percent of population growth today is occurring in developing countries, and Asia accounts for 54 percent of that growth. This growth gives rise to many tough issues such as employment, delivery of basic services to citizens, infrastructure, and education, but it also creates many opportunities for emerging markets in business, innovation, and investments. As the population grows, the emerging middle class also grows, thus challenging the foundations of old regimes in developing world as the historically driving force for sociopolitical and economic reforms.
This population growth has important effects on global trade. In 2010, emerging markets represented 36 percent of global GDP, the majority of global oil and steel consumption, 46 percent of world retail sales, 52 percent of all motor vehicle purchases, and 82 percent of mobile phone subscriptions. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the emerging markets’ share of GDP will rise to 55 percent by 2018. The U.S. National Intelligence Council singled out the growth of this global middle class from these markets as a “tectonic shift,” valued at a $30 trillion market opportunity by McKinsey. It is an open secret that economic wealth brings political leverage with it. For example, by 2020 the number of middle-class and affluent Indonesians may double to more than 141 million, so an "Indonesian Spring" in near future could be a possible scenario.
The role of urbanization is highly significant in forming a general “protest mood” in societies. Usually, a large middle classe willing to protest is found in large cities, as recent protests in Cairo, Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo, Istanbul, Moscow, and elsewhere will show. A recent study by Jeremy Wallace of Ohio State University on the interdependence between urbanization and regime changes shows that "[f]or the 237 regimes with urban concentration levels above the mean level in the data, the mean duration is 8.6 years and the annual regime death rate is 9.2 percent. For the 198 regimes characterized by low levels of urban concentration, the incidence rate is only 5.6 percent and the mean duration is 12.4 years. Regimes with capital cities that dominate the urban landscape fail nearly four years sooner and face 60 percent greater death rates." Information is more accessible to the vast majority of city dwellers; technological advancements open new horizons for innovative ideas; and already-established infrastructure and transportation ease people’s movements. That is why the city is “the right place to protest”.
Finally, the role of social media and ICT boom are of paramount importance as people interact over social media networks. For example, Twitter users in the Arab world almost doubled, from 2 million to 3.7 million, in the past year as Arabic-language tweets ballooned. "With more than 55 million active Arab users of Facebook and 3.7 million of Twitter, social media is already playing a growing role in formal and informal education, on-demand training, and in-capacity building," said Fadi Salem, the director of the governance and innovation program at Dubai School of Government and co-author of the latest Arab Social Media Report. The emerging middle class is no longer tolerating a vertical government-society structure, and are using technology to share knowledge and strategies.
It is another question whether people who protest eventually succeed in their endeavors. As Sheri Berman explains, "The fundamental mistake most commentators on the Arab Spring make is underestimating the scale, scope, and perniciousness of authoritarianism. Tyranny is more than a type of political order; it is an economic and social system as well, one that permeates most aspects of a country’s life and has deep roots in a vast array of formal and informal institutions." Change requires time and a strong will. Years, and even generations, are required for firm changes in traditionally non-democratic societies. A new way of thinking will eventually change not only the minds of the governed but also of the govermnent. For a positive large-scale change in society, a revolution in people’s minds is a prerequisite.
Vahram Ayvazyan is a 2012 graduate of the Genocide and Human Rights University Program at the International Institute for Genocide and Human Rights Studies in Toronto. He can be found on Twitter @VahramAyvazyan.
Photo: Amine Ghrabi (cc).
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Why Do People Protest?
August 7, 2013
Recent public upheavals in Brazil and Turkey; the ouster of Mohamed Morsi; riots by Muslim Brotherhood supporters in Egypt—it all begs the question: why do people protest? People tend to form groups of more developed organisms—societies which have governing bodies. But today modern societies everywhere are rapidly maturing both in political and economic terms everywhere on Earth, and oppression is no longer good business. The modern individual is educated enough desire a more reliable society, and the new middle classes will worl to replace failed government with more robust ones.
"Today, efficacy is the challenge," as Tony Blair puts it vis-à-vis recent protests in Cairo. When governments do not deliver, people protest, but 17 million people in the street is not the same thing as an election. However, it is an incredible manifestation of people power. “I am a strong supporter of democracy," Blair continued. "But democratic government alone does not guarantee effective government. When governments do not deliver, people protest. They don’t want to wait for an election. In fact, as Turkey and Brazil show, people may protest even when, by any objective measure, their countries have made huge progress.”
It is clear what people in the developing world want from their governments: better conditions, good infrastructure, human rights, etc. Brazil’s case is particularly interesting, as the country is the second largest developing economy in the world after China. However, the Rousseff administration is failing to improve critical infrastructure and the business environment. On the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Index, Brazil is ranked 130 out of a total of 185 countries. Inflation is on the rise, and the cost of living is absurdly high for a developing nation. "This isn’t Turkey, I don’t think we’ll see daily or even weekly protests in the near future, but with the election next year and the World Cup, that could change. People won’t lack for reasons to protest.” says Rafael Cortez to TIME.
As the populations of developing countries continue to growing, outstripping the ability of governments to provide, we are witnessing an unprecedented increase in demands of their governments. About 96 percent of population growth today is occurring in developing countries, and Asia accounts for 54 percent of that growth. This growth gives rise to many tough issues such as employment, delivery of basic services to citizens, infrastructure, and education, but it also creates many opportunities for emerging markets in business, innovation, and investments. As the population grows, the emerging middle class also grows, thus challenging the foundations of old regimes in developing world as the historically driving force for sociopolitical and economic reforms.
This population growth has important effects on global trade. In 2010, emerging markets represented 36 percent of global GDP, the majority of global oil and steel consumption, 46 percent of world retail sales, 52 percent of all motor vehicle purchases, and 82 percent of mobile phone subscriptions. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the emerging markets’ share of GDP will rise to 55 percent by 2018. The U.S. National Intelligence Council singled out the growth of this global middle class from these markets as a “tectonic shift,” valued at a $30 trillion market opportunity by McKinsey. It is an open secret that economic wealth brings political leverage with it. For example, by 2020 the number of middle-class and affluent Indonesians may double to more than 141 million, so an "Indonesian Spring" in near future could be a possible scenario.
The role of urbanization is highly significant in forming a general “protest mood” in societies. Usually, a large middle classe willing to protest is found in large cities, as recent protests in Cairo, Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo, Istanbul, Moscow, and elsewhere will show. A recent study by Jeremy Wallace of Ohio State University on the interdependence between urbanization and regime changes shows that "[f]or the 237 regimes with urban concentration levels above the mean level in the data, the mean duration is 8.6 years and the annual regime death rate is 9.2 percent. For the 198 regimes characterized by low levels of urban concentration, the incidence rate is only 5.6 percent and the mean duration is 12.4 years. Regimes with capital cities that dominate the urban landscape fail nearly four years sooner and face 60 percent greater death rates." Information is more accessible to the vast majority of city dwellers; technological advancements open new horizons for innovative ideas; and already-established infrastructure and transportation ease people’s movements. That is why the city is “the right place to protest”.
Finally, the role of social media and ICT boom are of paramount importance as people interact over social media networks. For example, Twitter users in the Arab world almost doubled, from 2 million to 3.7 million, in the past year as Arabic-language tweets ballooned. "With more than 55 million active Arab users of Facebook and 3.7 million of Twitter, social media is already playing a growing role in formal and informal education, on-demand training, and in-capacity building," said Fadi Salem, the director of the governance and innovation program at Dubai School of Government and co-author of the latest Arab Social Media Report. The emerging middle class is no longer tolerating a vertical government-society structure, and are using technology to share knowledge and strategies.
It is another question whether people who protest eventually succeed in their endeavors. As Sheri Berman explains, "The fundamental mistake most commentators on the Arab Spring make is underestimating the scale, scope, and perniciousness of authoritarianism. Tyranny is more than a type of political order; it is an economic and social system as well, one that permeates most aspects of a country’s life and has deep roots in a vast array of formal and informal institutions." Change requires time and a strong will. Years, and even generations, are required for firm changes in traditionally non-democratic societies. A new way of thinking will eventually change not only the minds of the governed but also of the govermnent. For a positive large-scale change in society, a revolution in people’s minds is a prerequisite.
Vahram Ayvazyan is a 2012 graduate of the Genocide and Human Rights University Program at the International Institute for Genocide and Human Rights Studies in Toronto. He can be found on Twitter @VahramAyvazyan.
Photo: Amine Ghrabi (cc).
