hough not by definition fragile states, the United States and many countries in Western Europe are experiencing a surge in violent right-wing populism because a significant portion of their populations question the legitimacy of the governments in power. Such instability can serve as a breeding ground for terrorist organizations (both foreign and domestic) and ultimately weaken public confidence in political institutions, indefinitely.
In the years I spent attempting to track and diagnose terrorism, I felt that I had a thorough understanding of why people join terrorist organizations: religious fanaticism. I was wrong. While religious motivation is true in a small number of cases, I came to find that most joined because members of Al Qaida found them when they had been abandoned, unable to access education, unable to obtain healthcare, and unable to access a consistent source of food and housing. In short, political instability and the inability of their governments to meet their basic needs contributed to them turning to radicalization. They were the product of a failed and fragile state.
The definition of a failed state varies but generally, it is a political body that has disintegrated to a point where basic conditions and responsibilities of a sovereign government no longer function properly.
Per the Fragile State Index, the countries that are considered the most vulnerable to collapse are predominately in the Sahel, Horn of Africa and Near East. Countries such as Yemen, South Sudan, and Somalia. Countries where Al Qaida has found a resurgence: Yemen, in the Arabian Peninsula, South Sudan, Somalia, and the Islamic Maghreb. Illegitimate and/or unstable governments create uncertainty, scarcity, and chaos, leading citizens of these countries to look elsewhere for the stability they need.
A state can also fail, however, even when its government is performing its basic functions properly by losing its legitimacy. Indeed, for a stable state, it is necessary for the government to enjoy both effectiveness and legitimacy. Those that experience increasing challenges to their legitimacy, real or imagined, are particularly susceptible to destabilizing violence.
Recently, the role of political legitimacy has begun to play more of a role in the radicalization of individuals rather that total disintegration of the political apparatus. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic—October-November 2019—IMF estimates rise in unrest predominately in Latin America and the Middle East. Large anti-government demonstrations also took place in advanced economies where unrest is relatively rare, such as Canada, New Zealand, Austria, and the Netherlands. And, while by definition these countries and others such as Germany, France, and the U.S., are currently stable on the fragile state index, they have experienced a large shift in in regard to how their populations view political legitimacy.
Particularly concerning is the sharp rise in extremist groups in the United States in recent years. These groups have also increased their foothold in Europe, with the numbers of attacks quadrupling in recent years.
Ahead of the German federal elections of 2021, QAnon-type conspiracies grew as groups like the Reichsburger movement, spread their disinformation through online message boards. Ultimately large-scale arrests of members attempting to overthrow the government took place in late 2022.
In France, despite Macron’s unpopularity, he was re-elected in 2022. Claims of election fraud ran rampant in a page borrowed from the U.S. 2020 elections. Demonstration activity increased in mainland France by 61% in 2021, with violence in their overseas territories (Corsica), increasing by 1,120%.
And on the heels of January 6th, 2021, Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which has monitored U.S. elections for 17 years, raised significant concerns in 2022 regarding rhetoric questioning electoral integrity and how it is directly related to unrest and violence.
In March 2021, Global Trends 2040, a publication of the Office of the National Security Council, warned “that terrorist groups will continue to exploit societal fragmentation and weak governance to push their ideologies and gain power through violence.” Further, “extreme rightwing and leftwing terrorists promoting a range of issues would be highly problematic to the legitimacy of governments.”
Political discourse is a natural and encouraged byproduct of democracy. But the recent violence and unfounded rhetoric surrounding legitimate elections fueled by social media platforms, weakens public confidence in democratic institutions indefinitely.
Much like understanding the motive behind one joining a terrorist organization, to minimize the violence and safety concerns that have arisen as a result of right-wing populist groups denying the legitimacy of elections in democratic countries, we must understand why. There has been a great deal of focus in preventing the spread of misinformation digitally, however no focus on why constituents believe it. A democratically elected leader will never satisfy one hundred percent of their constituency. This is the beauty of democracy. However, political legitimacy will never be obtained through violence.
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The Rise and Mainstreaming of Extremism in the U.S. and Europe
Photo via Adobe Stock.
January 20, 2023
The U.S. and many countries in Western Europe are experiencing a surge in violent right-wing populism because a large portion of their populations question the legitimacy of the governments in power. Such instability can serve as a breeding ground for terrorist organizations, writes Tracy Walder.
T
hough not by definition fragile states, the United States and many countries in Western Europe are experiencing a surge in violent right-wing populism because a significant portion of their populations question the legitimacy of the governments in power. Such instability can serve as a breeding ground for terrorist organizations (both foreign and domestic) and ultimately weaken public confidence in political institutions, indefinitely.
In the years I spent attempting to track and diagnose terrorism, I felt that I had a thorough understanding of why people join terrorist organizations: religious fanaticism. I was wrong. While religious motivation is true in a small number of cases, I came to find that most joined because members of Al Qaida found them when they had been abandoned, unable to access education, unable to obtain healthcare, and unable to access a consistent source of food and housing. In short, political instability and the inability of their governments to meet their basic needs contributed to them turning to radicalization. They were the product of a failed and fragile state.
The definition of a failed state varies but generally, it is a political body that has disintegrated to a point where basic conditions and responsibilities of a sovereign government no longer function properly.
Per the Fragile State Index, the countries that are considered the most vulnerable to collapse are predominately in the Sahel, Horn of Africa and Near East. Countries such as Yemen, South Sudan, and Somalia. Countries where Al Qaida has found a resurgence: Yemen, in the Arabian Peninsula, South Sudan, Somalia, and the Islamic Maghreb. Illegitimate and/or unstable governments create uncertainty, scarcity, and chaos, leading citizens of these countries to look elsewhere for the stability they need.
A state can also fail, however, even when its government is performing its basic functions properly by losing its legitimacy. Indeed, for a stable state, it is necessary for the government to enjoy both effectiveness and legitimacy. Those that experience increasing challenges to their legitimacy, real or imagined, are particularly susceptible to destabilizing violence.
Recently, the role of political legitimacy has begun to play more of a role in the radicalization of individuals rather that total disintegration of the political apparatus. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic—October-November 2019—IMF estimates rise in unrest predominately in Latin America and the Middle East. Large anti-government demonstrations also took place in advanced economies where unrest is relatively rare, such as Canada, New Zealand, Austria, and the Netherlands. And, while by definition these countries and others such as Germany, France, and the U.S., are currently stable on the fragile state index, they have experienced a large shift in in regard to how their populations view political legitimacy.
Particularly concerning is the sharp rise in extremist groups in the United States in recent years. These groups have also increased their foothold in Europe, with the numbers of attacks quadrupling in recent years.
Ahead of the German federal elections of 2021, QAnon-type conspiracies grew as groups like the Reichsburger movement, spread their disinformation through online message boards. Ultimately large-scale arrests of members attempting to overthrow the government took place in late 2022.
In France, despite Macron’s unpopularity, he was re-elected in 2022. Claims of election fraud ran rampant in a page borrowed from the U.S. 2020 elections. Demonstration activity increased in mainland France by 61% in 2021, with violence in their overseas territories (Corsica), increasing by 1,120%.
And on the heels of January 6th, 2021, Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which has monitored U.S. elections for 17 years, raised significant concerns in 2022 regarding rhetoric questioning electoral integrity and how it is directly related to unrest and violence.
In March 2021, Global Trends 2040, a publication of the Office of the National Security Council, warned “that terrorist groups will continue to exploit societal fragmentation and weak governance to push their ideologies and gain power through violence.” Further, “extreme rightwing and leftwing terrorists promoting a range of issues would be highly problematic to the legitimacy of governments.”
Political discourse is a natural and encouraged byproduct of democracy. But the recent violence and unfounded rhetoric surrounding legitimate elections fueled by social media platforms, weakens public confidence in democratic institutions indefinitely.
Much like understanding the motive behind one joining a terrorist organization, to minimize the violence and safety concerns that have arisen as a result of right-wing populist groups denying the legitimacy of elections in democratic countries, we must understand why. There has been a great deal of focus in preventing the spread of misinformation digitally, however no focus on why constituents believe it. A democratically elected leader will never satisfy one hundred percent of their constituency. This is the beauty of democracy. However, political legitimacy will never be obtained through violence.
