he coronavirus pandemic is straining healthcare systems and economies around the world. A failure to coordinate an effective global response and aid struggling countries at this early stage will only intensify an already dire reality. The quick spread of the virus since last December highlights the nature of contagion in a globalized world. One country’s inability to manage an epidemic can rapidly metastasize into a global pandemic.
To defeat this historic pandemic, the United States must rise to the challenge and provide aid and support to all countries—allies and foes. And success in responding to this global crisis requires coordination with one of the hardest-hit countries, Iran. Alarming forecasts from Sharif University in Tehran predict a scenario of up to 3.5 million Iranians, nearly 5% of the population, dying from COVID-19 by the end of May. Continued sanctions and animosity create a nearly insurmountable obstacle in the way of Iran’s pandemic response, and, by extension, only hamper efforts to rid the world of the coronavirus. Global coordination is necessary to address the coronavirus pandemic.
Adherence to the “maximum pressure” campaign will only amplify the global health risk. Sanctions contribute to Iran’s inability to effectively control and combat the pandemic. At the same time, the escalating harm caused by the coronavirus within Iran risks triggering retaliatory and provocative behavior by the regime, as U.S. Marine General Kenneth McKenzie warned last month. The intended purpose of sanctions is presumably to pressure Iran from within and without, and to force the regime to the negotiating table with a weakened hand. But if the Trump administration hoped for massive protests in Iran, such unrest is far-fetched during a contagious pandemic that is especially ravaging the Iranian public. In fact, the people that sanctions intend to push to the streets are the ones staying home in the wake of the pandemic.
Continued sanctions provide a needed scapegoat. As Iran struggles to handle the pandemic, clerics, politicians, and military leaders have sought to blame the United States and intensify anti-American sentiment in an effort to shore up support. The Iranian people are increasingly dissatisfied with their leaders and U.S. efforts have sought to heighten their distrust and disillusionment. However, as Iranians die in overcrowded hospitals struggling with low supplies of respirator masks, ventilators, and raw materials for the manufacture of antiviral drugs, the regime’s rhetoric may gain traction, especially among the younger generation. Maintaining current policies during this unprecedented crisis risks entrenching the regime and alienating the Iranian people, whom the State Department eagerly seeks to support. The current global crisis is an opportunity for the United States to directly counter regime propaganda by easing sanctions.
In times of necessity, the United States and the Islamic Republic have found ways to put their differences aside. In the early 2000s, the Bush administration and Iran cooperated against the Taliban. Similarly, the United States quickly created immediate sanctions exemptions following devastating earthquakes in Iran in 2003 and 2012. The current pandemic is a crisis like no other. It requires truly global cooperation and coordination. Lifting sanctions, at least temporarily, ensures that the global response does not face additional obstacles to an already daunting challenge that necessarily requires the collective efforts of the international community.
In combating a pandemic, all options should be on the table. Though formally there are humanitarian exemptions to sanctions on Iran, the Treasury Department has prosecuted medical companies for the sale of medical supplies in the past. Perceived uncertainty around such exemptions prevent the sale of critical supplies to Iran, as suppliers are disincentivized by the risk of federal prosecution. A temporary pause to a broader array of sanctions will send a clear signal that humanitarian suppliers will not be prosecuted during this international crisis. Such relief will not only boost the global fight against the coronavirus pandemic, but it will also provide a unique diplomatic opening once the battle is won. Mirroring the early days of the nuclear negotiations, coordination between medical experts from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, the Iranian Ministry of Health, and the World Health Organization could pave a path towards rebuilding trust and subsequently addressing other issues between the United States and Iran, while contributing directly to international pandemic response efforts. To ease “maximum pressure” hawks in the Trump administration, sanctions relief could include an automatic snapback feature, where sanctions would snap back into place if the post-pandemic diplomatic opportunity is ultimately floundered.
Global cooperation between experts must be matched with coordinated distribution of medical aid and supplies. As the U.S. federal government rapidly ramps up production of critically important medical supplies to meet domestic needs, the Trump administration has an opportunity to develop a global pandemic version of FDR’s Lend-Lease policy. Once domestic needs are met, the United States should undoubtedly continue rapid production in order to provide unconditional aid to pandemic response efforts abroad. China has already started providing such aid as it slows the spread of the virus at home. As a major front in the battle against the pandemic, Iran would be a key recipient of supplies—whether directly from U.S. manufacturers or indirectly through U.S. allies and partners.
Diplomacy is of utmost importance in resolving tensions between the United States and Iran and the most effective way to achieve long-term U.S. foreign policy goals. Successful international coordination now creates the potential for renewed diplomatic progress once the pandemic is defeated. Though embracing such a post-pandemic opportunity would be a major foreign policy victory, rapprochement between the two foes is far from guaranteed. Nevertheless, coordinating with Iran and countries around the world is imperative right now. And, at the very least, failure to build upon any post-pandemic diplomatic openings between the United States and Iran includes a critical silver lining: limiting the harm caused by the coronavirus pandemic and ending its spread once and for all.
a global affairs media network
The Opportunity for a Pandemic-era Iran Deal
April 10, 2020
T
he coronavirus pandemic is straining healthcare systems and economies around the world. A failure to coordinate an effective global response and aid struggling countries at this early stage will only intensify an already dire reality. The quick spread of the virus since last December highlights the nature of contagion in a globalized world. One country’s inability to manage an epidemic can rapidly metastasize into a global pandemic.
To defeat this historic pandemic, the United States must rise to the challenge and provide aid and support to all countries—allies and foes. And success in responding to this global crisis requires coordination with one of the hardest-hit countries, Iran. Alarming forecasts from Sharif University in Tehran predict a scenario of up to 3.5 million Iranians, nearly 5% of the population, dying from COVID-19 by the end of May. Continued sanctions and animosity create a nearly insurmountable obstacle in the way of Iran’s pandemic response, and, by extension, only hamper efforts to rid the world of the coronavirus. Global coordination is necessary to address the coronavirus pandemic.
Adherence to the “maximum pressure” campaign will only amplify the global health risk. Sanctions contribute to Iran’s inability to effectively control and combat the pandemic. At the same time, the escalating harm caused by the coronavirus within Iran risks triggering retaliatory and provocative behavior by the regime, as U.S. Marine General Kenneth McKenzie warned last month. The intended purpose of sanctions is presumably to pressure Iran from within and without, and to force the regime to the negotiating table with a weakened hand. But if the Trump administration hoped for massive protests in Iran, such unrest is far-fetched during a contagious pandemic that is especially ravaging the Iranian public. In fact, the people that sanctions intend to push to the streets are the ones staying home in the wake of the pandemic.
Continued sanctions provide a needed scapegoat. As Iran struggles to handle the pandemic, clerics, politicians, and military leaders have sought to blame the United States and intensify anti-American sentiment in an effort to shore up support. The Iranian people are increasingly dissatisfied with their leaders and U.S. efforts have sought to heighten their distrust and disillusionment. However, as Iranians die in overcrowded hospitals struggling with low supplies of respirator masks, ventilators, and raw materials for the manufacture of antiviral drugs, the regime’s rhetoric may gain traction, especially among the younger generation. Maintaining current policies during this unprecedented crisis risks entrenching the regime and alienating the Iranian people, whom the State Department eagerly seeks to support. The current global crisis is an opportunity for the United States to directly counter regime propaganda by easing sanctions.
In times of necessity, the United States and the Islamic Republic have found ways to put their differences aside. In the early 2000s, the Bush administration and Iran cooperated against the Taliban. Similarly, the United States quickly created immediate sanctions exemptions following devastating earthquakes in Iran in 2003 and 2012. The current pandemic is a crisis like no other. It requires truly global cooperation and coordination. Lifting sanctions, at least temporarily, ensures that the global response does not face additional obstacles to an already daunting challenge that necessarily requires the collective efforts of the international community.
In combating a pandemic, all options should be on the table. Though formally there are humanitarian exemptions to sanctions on Iran, the Treasury Department has prosecuted medical companies for the sale of medical supplies in the past. Perceived uncertainty around such exemptions prevent the sale of critical supplies to Iran, as suppliers are disincentivized by the risk of federal prosecution. A temporary pause to a broader array of sanctions will send a clear signal that humanitarian suppliers will not be prosecuted during this international crisis. Such relief will not only boost the global fight against the coronavirus pandemic, but it will also provide a unique diplomatic opening once the battle is won. Mirroring the early days of the nuclear negotiations, coordination between medical experts from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, the Iranian Ministry of Health, and the World Health Organization could pave a path towards rebuilding trust and subsequently addressing other issues between the United States and Iran, while contributing directly to international pandemic response efforts. To ease “maximum pressure” hawks in the Trump administration, sanctions relief could include an automatic snapback feature, where sanctions would snap back into place if the post-pandemic diplomatic opportunity is ultimately floundered.
Global cooperation between experts must be matched with coordinated distribution of medical aid and supplies. As the U.S. federal government rapidly ramps up production of critically important medical supplies to meet domestic needs, the Trump administration has an opportunity to develop a global pandemic version of FDR’s Lend-Lease policy. Once domestic needs are met, the United States should undoubtedly continue rapid production in order to provide unconditional aid to pandemic response efforts abroad. China has already started providing such aid as it slows the spread of the virus at home. As a major front in the battle against the pandemic, Iran would be a key recipient of supplies—whether directly from U.S. manufacturers or indirectly through U.S. allies and partners.
Diplomacy is of utmost importance in resolving tensions between the United States and Iran and the most effective way to achieve long-term U.S. foreign policy goals. Successful international coordination now creates the potential for renewed diplomatic progress once the pandemic is defeated. Though embracing such a post-pandemic opportunity would be a major foreign policy victory, rapprochement between the two foes is far from guaranteed. Nevertheless, coordinating with Iran and countries around the world is imperative right now. And, at the very least, failure to build upon any post-pandemic diplomatic openings between the United States and Iran includes a critical silver lining: limiting the harm caused by the coronavirus pandemic and ending its spread once and for all.
