.
T

he year 2021 brought major developments across the Middle East and North Africa, the effects of which will extend far into the future. The US withdrawal from Afghanistan was only the latest sign that the region is not only changing fast but also falling down the international community’s list of priorities.

Already, the region looks very different than the one the world has known in recent decades, owing to recent developments in the Arab-Israeli conflict (especially the signing of the Abraham Accords), Lebanon’s implosion, and the crisis in Tunisia, among other issues. Much conventional wisdom about the region – and within it – no longer holds true.

The United States’ disastrous invasion and occupation of Iraq in 2003 had long since left the American public wary of military interventions and nation building, and the withdrawal from Afghanistan was the final manifestation of this disenchantment. American voters and subsequent US administrations have concluded that their country is not particularly adept at promoting democracy or building institutions outside its borders. And since America’s shale boom effectively eliminated its dependence on oil from the Middle East, the US has taken a diminishing interest in countries that seem unwilling or unable to establish more productive, inclusive political and economic systems.

One can also detect frustration among large swaths of the Arab world. Between America’s blundering interventions in Iraq, Libya, and Syria, and its continued unconditional support for Israel despite that country’s long occupation of Palestinian territory, Arabs have grown increasingly disillusioned with US policy. The result is that the US and the Arab world have never been further apart.

The Arab uprisings a decade ago sought to usher in sustained political and economic reforms. But that agenda struggled to get off the ground and is now under tremendous pressure in the one country where it did. Until recently, Tunisia stood out as a model of political diversity, peaceful transfers of power, and gender equality. Yet it is now being subjected to the dictatorial impulses of an elected president who enjoys wide popular support. Similarly, Lebanon, long an exponent of cultural diversity in the region, is now in a state of near collapse, because its corrupt political elites refuse to put the country’s interests ahead of their own.

In Tunisia’s case, it remains to be seen whether the recent instability is an anomaly that can be corrected, or instead heralds the renewal of the pre-2011 status quo. And many Arabs are wondering whether Lebanon’s political and economic breakdown will also spell the end of its commitment to cultural diversity, or whether the Lebanese people will once again manage to preserve a model that has exported much talent and hope to the rest of the region.

The past year also brought major developments on the Arab-Israeli front. Two political leaders who had previously wreaked havoc on the peace process have left the scene. US President Donald Trump, whose “deal of the century” was completely skewed toward Israeli interests at the expense of the Palestinians, was sent packing (and he took his “peace plan” with him). And a similar fate was visited upon Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, who openly opposed any withdrawal from the occupied territories to allow for the establishment of a viable Palestinian state. But Israel now has a new government headed by Naftali Bennett, whose position on that particular issue is even more extreme than his predecessor’s.

Beyond these electoral outcomes, 2021 will be most remembered for the clashes between Israeli forces and the Palestinians in Jerusalem’s Sheikh Jarrah and Silwan districts, and then in Gaza. More than at any other time in the history of the conflict, the international community has begun to view these episodes through the lens of human rights, with less tolerance for Israeli violations.

In 2018, Israel enacted a nation-state law that formally consigned its Palestinian citizens to second-class status. Now, three major reports in the past year have heavily criticized Israel’s separate and unequal treatment of Palestinians, including both those who are Israeli citizens and those under occupation. The Israeli human-rights organization B’Tselem, the highly respected Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Human Rights Watch have all come out and argued (to varying degrees) that Israel has established a legal system akin to apartheid.

The “A-word” was considered taboo until just a few years ago. But with Israel’s leaders openly declaring their opposition to a Palestinian state, the political dynamics have changed. Israel is evidently committed to sustaining the longest military occupation in modern history; but its alleged human-rights violations have reached a level that very few in the international community can continue to justify.

The Abraham Accords, Israel’s bilateral agreements establishing diplomatic relations with four Arab countries (the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco) in late 2020, turned out to do nothing for the peace process. Instead, they merely allowed signatory governments to secure political and economic gains from the US. The Trump administration hoped that the Accords would serve as a counterweight to Iran, which now has a new hardline president. But they have not had any impact on the Biden administration’s resolve to renew the Iran nuclear deal, nor have they had any moderating effect on Israel’s position vis-à-vis the Palestinians. Saudi Arabia, while not having taken part in such agreements, seems to be acquiescing, behind the scenes, in an effort to build an Arab-Israeli coalition against Iranian influence in the region. The kingdom has also taken unprecedented economic and social liberalization measures, while keeping its political system intact so far.

In short, while the region is undergoing rapid change, much remains the same. Most Arab leaders refuse to accept that the road to stability and prosperity runs through strong institutions, respect for diversity, inclusive economic systems, and legal equality for all citizens. Instead, they are clamping down on dissent and entrenching their own positions.

Looking ahead, the Arab-Israeli conflict appears to be entering a new phase. Palestinians, particularly those from younger generations, no longer believe that a two-state solution is possible, and thus are refocusing their struggle on equal rights and possibly a one-state democratic outcome.

Beyond that conflict, however, the international community’s interest in the region will continue to decline. If Arab states are to have any real hope of achieving peace, stability, and prosperity, they will have to launch a credible process of political and economic reform. And they will have to do it in-house.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2021.

About
Marwan Muasher
:
Marwan Muasher, a former foreign minister and deputy prime minister of Jordan, is Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the author of The Second Arab Awakening: And the Battle for Pluralism.
The views presented in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the views of any other organization.

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The Middle East’s Backwater Blues

Photo by Damir Babacic via Unsplash.

January 9, 2022

The international community's interest in the Middle East and North Africa region continues to decline, while Arab governments grow increasingly disenchanted with U.S. policy, writes former Jordanian Foreign Minister Marwan Muasher.

T

he year 2021 brought major developments across the Middle East and North Africa, the effects of which will extend far into the future. The US withdrawal from Afghanistan was only the latest sign that the region is not only changing fast but also falling down the international community’s list of priorities.

Already, the region looks very different than the one the world has known in recent decades, owing to recent developments in the Arab-Israeli conflict (especially the signing of the Abraham Accords), Lebanon’s implosion, and the crisis in Tunisia, among other issues. Much conventional wisdom about the region – and within it – no longer holds true.

The United States’ disastrous invasion and occupation of Iraq in 2003 had long since left the American public wary of military interventions and nation building, and the withdrawal from Afghanistan was the final manifestation of this disenchantment. American voters and subsequent US administrations have concluded that their country is not particularly adept at promoting democracy or building institutions outside its borders. And since America’s shale boom effectively eliminated its dependence on oil from the Middle East, the US has taken a diminishing interest in countries that seem unwilling or unable to establish more productive, inclusive political and economic systems.

One can also detect frustration among large swaths of the Arab world. Between America’s blundering interventions in Iraq, Libya, and Syria, and its continued unconditional support for Israel despite that country’s long occupation of Palestinian territory, Arabs have grown increasingly disillusioned with US policy. The result is that the US and the Arab world have never been further apart.

The Arab uprisings a decade ago sought to usher in sustained political and economic reforms. But that agenda struggled to get off the ground and is now under tremendous pressure in the one country where it did. Until recently, Tunisia stood out as a model of political diversity, peaceful transfers of power, and gender equality. Yet it is now being subjected to the dictatorial impulses of an elected president who enjoys wide popular support. Similarly, Lebanon, long an exponent of cultural diversity in the region, is now in a state of near collapse, because its corrupt political elites refuse to put the country’s interests ahead of their own.

In Tunisia’s case, it remains to be seen whether the recent instability is an anomaly that can be corrected, or instead heralds the renewal of the pre-2011 status quo. And many Arabs are wondering whether Lebanon’s political and economic breakdown will also spell the end of its commitment to cultural diversity, or whether the Lebanese people will once again manage to preserve a model that has exported much talent and hope to the rest of the region.

The past year also brought major developments on the Arab-Israeli front. Two political leaders who had previously wreaked havoc on the peace process have left the scene. US President Donald Trump, whose “deal of the century” was completely skewed toward Israeli interests at the expense of the Palestinians, was sent packing (and he took his “peace plan” with him). And a similar fate was visited upon Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, who openly opposed any withdrawal from the occupied territories to allow for the establishment of a viable Palestinian state. But Israel now has a new government headed by Naftali Bennett, whose position on that particular issue is even more extreme than his predecessor’s.

Beyond these electoral outcomes, 2021 will be most remembered for the clashes between Israeli forces and the Palestinians in Jerusalem’s Sheikh Jarrah and Silwan districts, and then in Gaza. More than at any other time in the history of the conflict, the international community has begun to view these episodes through the lens of human rights, with less tolerance for Israeli violations.

In 2018, Israel enacted a nation-state law that formally consigned its Palestinian citizens to second-class status. Now, three major reports in the past year have heavily criticized Israel’s separate and unequal treatment of Palestinians, including both those who are Israeli citizens and those under occupation. The Israeli human-rights organization B’Tselem, the highly respected Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Human Rights Watch have all come out and argued (to varying degrees) that Israel has established a legal system akin to apartheid.

The “A-word” was considered taboo until just a few years ago. But with Israel’s leaders openly declaring their opposition to a Palestinian state, the political dynamics have changed. Israel is evidently committed to sustaining the longest military occupation in modern history; but its alleged human-rights violations have reached a level that very few in the international community can continue to justify.

The Abraham Accords, Israel’s bilateral agreements establishing diplomatic relations with four Arab countries (the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco) in late 2020, turned out to do nothing for the peace process. Instead, they merely allowed signatory governments to secure political and economic gains from the US. The Trump administration hoped that the Accords would serve as a counterweight to Iran, which now has a new hardline president. But they have not had any impact on the Biden administration’s resolve to renew the Iran nuclear deal, nor have they had any moderating effect on Israel’s position vis-à-vis the Palestinians. Saudi Arabia, while not having taken part in such agreements, seems to be acquiescing, behind the scenes, in an effort to build an Arab-Israeli coalition against Iranian influence in the region. The kingdom has also taken unprecedented economic and social liberalization measures, while keeping its political system intact so far.

In short, while the region is undergoing rapid change, much remains the same. Most Arab leaders refuse to accept that the road to stability and prosperity runs through strong institutions, respect for diversity, inclusive economic systems, and legal equality for all citizens. Instead, they are clamping down on dissent and entrenching their own positions.

Looking ahead, the Arab-Israeli conflict appears to be entering a new phase. Palestinians, particularly those from younger generations, no longer believe that a two-state solution is possible, and thus are refocusing their struggle on equal rights and possibly a one-state democratic outcome.

Beyond that conflict, however, the international community’s interest in the region will continue to decline. If Arab states are to have any real hope of achieving peace, stability, and prosperity, they will have to launch a credible process of political and economic reform. And they will have to do it in-house.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2021.

About
Marwan Muasher
:
Marwan Muasher, a former foreign minister and deputy prime minister of Jordan, is Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the author of The Second Arab Awakening: And the Battle for Pluralism.
The views presented in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the views of any other organization.