n less than a month, the United States will return to the Paris climate accord, the international climate agreement designed to avert global warming. American President Joe Biden began the 30-day process for bringing the country back into the agreement on the first day of his presidency, illustrating what many hope is a renewed American commitment to climate issues.
Even without the U.S., the Paris climate accord has already paved the way for progress in the fight against climate change. Under the Paris Accord, countries must meet every five years to set increasingly ambitious goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The agreement has been credited with making a 1.5 degree Celsius limit on global warming a feasible goal. Prior to the Paris Accord, it was vulnerable island nations pleading with larger states who saw a 2-degree Celsius increase in global temperatures as a more reasonable target for international action. Additionally, the agreement normalized net zero emissions as a national goal. By the end of 2020, Japan, China, and South Korea had joined the EU and the UK in setting carbon neutrality goals.
However, just because the Paris Accord has set some trends in terms of moving away from a future forever marred by global warming doesn’t mean that countries are anywhere close to successfully combatting climate change. Despite the 2015 agreement, billions of tons of CO2 were added to the atmosphere between 2015 and 2018, with emissions decreases in advanced economies not nearly substantial enough to offset the increases in emissions produced by developing economies in Asia. This past year did bring a historic decrease in emissions due to the ongoing pandemic, but one 2020 study found that the crisis had not “altered the worldwide energy system in a fundamental way.”
Additionally, experts wonder if countries will be able to cut emissions enough to meet the goals of the 2015 agreement. By 2030, to keep global warming below 1.5 Celsius above pre-industrial levels, global greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 50%. In 2019, a report entitled “The Truth Behind the Paris Climate Agreement Pledges,” scientists found that almost 75% of climate pledges made during the agreement weren’t enough to adequately reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030; further, the scientists found that some climate pledges were unlikely to be achieved.
Of course, some states boast progress on their Paris climate pledges. Japan, for example, is ahead of schedule to make its near-term Paris commitment, though critics say its targets were too lenient. The European Union upped its target emissions reduction from 40% below its 1990 level by 2030 to 55% below that level last fall. And China is also on track to achieve its Paris agreement goals, having added 72 gigawatts of wind power to its economy in 2020 (triple the amount it added to the grid in 2019). However, critics note that Beijing still relies on coal for 57.7% of its power and its Paris targets still include increasing emissions through 2030.
Some observers also note that countries are struggling to meet their climate commitments, despite optimistic news in a few states. A Climate Change Performance report released in December 2020 by the research firm Germanwatch found that five years after the Paris agreement, no country was on track to meet their 2015 goals. Earlier reports have echoed similar sentiments. In January 2020, for example, the think tank Climate Analytics reported that most countries were not on track to meet their Paris agreement targets.
Countries will have a chance to revisit their goals on the international stage in November of this year, when world leaders will gather at the United Nations Climate Action Summit in Glasgow, Scotland. European Union officials are hopeful that an American return to the Paris agreement in Glasgow will mark “a crucial moment to increase global ambition.” The world will have to wait until November to see if Glasgow indeed offers America an opportunity to take the lead in setting more ambitious goals for the next five years of the Paris agreement.
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The American Recommitment to the Paris Accord
February 8, 2021
I
n less than a month, the United States will return to the Paris climate accord, the international climate agreement designed to avert global warming. American President Joe Biden began the 30-day process for bringing the country back into the agreement on the first day of his presidency, illustrating what many hope is a renewed American commitment to climate issues.
Even without the U.S., the Paris climate accord has already paved the way for progress in the fight against climate change. Under the Paris Accord, countries must meet every five years to set increasingly ambitious goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The agreement has been credited with making a 1.5 degree Celsius limit on global warming a feasible goal. Prior to the Paris Accord, it was vulnerable island nations pleading with larger states who saw a 2-degree Celsius increase in global temperatures as a more reasonable target for international action. Additionally, the agreement normalized net zero emissions as a national goal. By the end of 2020, Japan, China, and South Korea had joined the EU and the UK in setting carbon neutrality goals.
However, just because the Paris Accord has set some trends in terms of moving away from a future forever marred by global warming doesn’t mean that countries are anywhere close to successfully combatting climate change. Despite the 2015 agreement, billions of tons of CO2 were added to the atmosphere between 2015 and 2018, with emissions decreases in advanced economies not nearly substantial enough to offset the increases in emissions produced by developing economies in Asia. This past year did bring a historic decrease in emissions due to the ongoing pandemic, but one 2020 study found that the crisis had not “altered the worldwide energy system in a fundamental way.”
Additionally, experts wonder if countries will be able to cut emissions enough to meet the goals of the 2015 agreement. By 2030, to keep global warming below 1.5 Celsius above pre-industrial levels, global greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 50%. In 2019, a report entitled “The Truth Behind the Paris Climate Agreement Pledges,” scientists found that almost 75% of climate pledges made during the agreement weren’t enough to adequately reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030; further, the scientists found that some climate pledges were unlikely to be achieved.
Of course, some states boast progress on their Paris climate pledges. Japan, for example, is ahead of schedule to make its near-term Paris commitment, though critics say its targets were too lenient. The European Union upped its target emissions reduction from 40% below its 1990 level by 2030 to 55% below that level last fall. And China is also on track to achieve its Paris agreement goals, having added 72 gigawatts of wind power to its economy in 2020 (triple the amount it added to the grid in 2019). However, critics note that Beijing still relies on coal for 57.7% of its power and its Paris targets still include increasing emissions through 2030.
Some observers also note that countries are struggling to meet their climate commitments, despite optimistic news in a few states. A Climate Change Performance report released in December 2020 by the research firm Germanwatch found that five years after the Paris agreement, no country was on track to meet their 2015 goals. Earlier reports have echoed similar sentiments. In January 2020, for example, the think tank Climate Analytics reported that most countries were not on track to meet their Paris agreement targets.
Countries will have a chance to revisit their goals on the international stage in November of this year, when world leaders will gather at the United Nations Climate Action Summit in Glasgow, Scotland. European Union officials are hopeful that an American return to the Paris agreement in Glasgow will mark “a crucial moment to increase global ambition.” The world will have to wait until November to see if Glasgow indeed offers America an opportunity to take the lead in setting more ambitious goals for the next five years of the Paris agreement.
