Politics in Thailand once again entered a volatile period as the country’s army declared martial law to restore peace and order, citing a 1914 law that gives the army “absolute” authority to intervene during times of crisis.
Army Chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha said the army took the action to pre-empt mass rallies between political rivals that could turn violent in their so-called "final battle" next week. The army also insisted that the invocation of the martial law did not constitute a coup d’état and that the caretaker government had been informed before the law was declared. In effect, the caretaker government remains functioning as normal and the army is not running the country. The military most recently invoked this special law in 2006 when the then-commander-in-chief declared the martial law in tandem with staging a military coup.
Within hours after the announcement was made at 3:00 AM local time on May 20, 2014, the army quickly set up the Peace and Order Maintaining Center (POMC), dissolved the government's Centre for the Administration of Peace and Order (CAPO), and declared Army Chief General Prayuth as the director of the POMC. The army also moved to censor some satellite TV channels and community radios that were deemed inflammatory. All other news media outlets are operating as normal.
The imposition of the martial law has received mixed reactions. Some commentators are nervous that the special law will lead to a new coup d’état in the country where military intervention in politics is not uncommon. Thailand has seen 18 actual and attempted coups d’état since 1932 when absolute monarchy was replaced by constitutional monarchy. The last imposition of martial law in 2006 ousted the infamous Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra from power. However, more optimistic analysts believe that the military’s move will help reduce political tensions. Immediately after the announcement, both pro-government and anti-government protestors (Yellow Shirts) adopted a wait-and-see tactic to assess the situation. The anti-government People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) abruptly cancelled plans for an extended street rally, while the pro-government United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), or the Red Shirts, vowed to cooperate with the army.
Yet Thailand is far from returning to normalcy. All eyes are now on the military—if the military favors one side, violence could erupt and quickly escalate. The bottom line is that this latest episode of martial law will not magically solve Thailand’s political crisis. Thailand is still a much divided society, and the only way out is to let the people vote to set up a new government. However, at the time of this writing, the Election Commission has said that the July 20 election is likely to be postponed because of political uncertainty.
Apart from severe traffic congestions in many parts of Bangkok, the majority of Thai life just goes on as usual on this first day of martial law. Some negative effects were seen in the financial and foreign exchange market, as the Stock Exchange of Thailand’s main index fell 1.13 percent, and the Thai baht was 0.1 percent weaker versus the dollar. The managing director of Thailand Future Exchange, stated, however, that the situation in the financial market is much better than what happened when the coup d’état took place in 2006. The chairman of the Thailand Board of Trade took a very optimistic view, saying the imposition of martial law could help build up confidence among Thais and foreigners. Tourism, however, will continue to take a substantial hit as foreign governments have issued warnings to travelers to be cautious while traveling to Thailand.
The impact on business and economy is harder to gauge at this point, but the protracted political crisis has surely put a dent in Thailand’s economy. GDP shrank by 0.6 percent year-over-year in the first quarter. The majority of financial institutions have decided to cut their GDP forecast to below 3 percent. The Bank of Thailand now expects the economic growth to be at 2.7 percent for 2014, down from 2.9 percent in 2013 and 6.5 percent in 2012. Private consumption has been particularly weak in the past quarter due to eroding confidence among domestic consumers. Further, without an actual government, government spending will likely decrease for at least two years from now (fiscal year 2015-2016). If there is no government by this December, an economic contraction is inevitable since there will be no public spending to contribute to GDP.
At the time of publication, the army chief has guaranteed that he will not allow bloodshed and that the martial law will remain in place until it is no longer needed. No one knows exactly when that will be, and a lot of uncertainty remains. The situation requires close monitoring as significant changes can now happen in a matter of hours.
Pavis Devahasadin is a consultant with APCO Worldwide and is based in Bangkok. APCO’s coverage of the political situation in Thailand continues on APCOForum.com.
Photo: Wason Wanichakorn/Associated Press
Editors' note: Thailand's army has changed the name of its command center from the Peace-Keeping Command Centre (PKCC) to the Peace and Order Maintaining Center (POMC). The changes have been reflected in this piece.
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Thailand’s Political Crisis: Martial Law, But No Coup (Yet)
May 20, 2014
Politics in Thailand once again entered a volatile period as the country’s army declared martial law to restore peace and order, citing a 1914 law that gives the army “absolute” authority to intervene during times of crisis.
Army Chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha said the army took the action to pre-empt mass rallies between political rivals that could turn violent in their so-called "final battle" next week. The army also insisted that the invocation of the martial law did not constitute a coup d’état and that the caretaker government had been informed before the law was declared. In effect, the caretaker government remains functioning as normal and the army is not running the country. The military most recently invoked this special law in 2006 when the then-commander-in-chief declared the martial law in tandem with staging a military coup.
Within hours after the announcement was made at 3:00 AM local time on May 20, 2014, the army quickly set up the Peace and Order Maintaining Center (POMC), dissolved the government's Centre for the Administration of Peace and Order (CAPO), and declared Army Chief General Prayuth as the director of the POMC. The army also moved to censor some satellite TV channels and community radios that were deemed inflammatory. All other news media outlets are operating as normal.
The imposition of the martial law has received mixed reactions. Some commentators are nervous that the special law will lead to a new coup d’état in the country where military intervention in politics is not uncommon. Thailand has seen 18 actual and attempted coups d’état since 1932 when absolute monarchy was replaced by constitutional monarchy. The last imposition of martial law in 2006 ousted the infamous Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra from power. However, more optimistic analysts believe that the military’s move will help reduce political tensions. Immediately after the announcement, both pro-government and anti-government protestors (Yellow Shirts) adopted a wait-and-see tactic to assess the situation. The anti-government People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) abruptly cancelled plans for an extended street rally, while the pro-government United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), or the Red Shirts, vowed to cooperate with the army.
Yet Thailand is far from returning to normalcy. All eyes are now on the military—if the military favors one side, violence could erupt and quickly escalate. The bottom line is that this latest episode of martial law will not magically solve Thailand’s political crisis. Thailand is still a much divided society, and the only way out is to let the people vote to set up a new government. However, at the time of this writing, the Election Commission has said that the July 20 election is likely to be postponed because of political uncertainty.
Apart from severe traffic congestions in many parts of Bangkok, the majority of Thai life just goes on as usual on this first day of martial law. Some negative effects were seen in the financial and foreign exchange market, as the Stock Exchange of Thailand’s main index fell 1.13 percent, and the Thai baht was 0.1 percent weaker versus the dollar. The managing director of Thailand Future Exchange, stated, however, that the situation in the financial market is much better than what happened when the coup d’état took place in 2006. The chairman of the Thailand Board of Trade took a very optimistic view, saying the imposition of martial law could help build up confidence among Thais and foreigners. Tourism, however, will continue to take a substantial hit as foreign governments have issued warnings to travelers to be cautious while traveling to Thailand.
The impact on business and economy is harder to gauge at this point, but the protracted political crisis has surely put a dent in Thailand’s economy. GDP shrank by 0.6 percent year-over-year in the first quarter. The majority of financial institutions have decided to cut their GDP forecast to below 3 percent. The Bank of Thailand now expects the economic growth to be at 2.7 percent for 2014, down from 2.9 percent in 2013 and 6.5 percent in 2012. Private consumption has been particularly weak in the past quarter due to eroding confidence among domestic consumers. Further, without an actual government, government spending will likely decrease for at least two years from now (fiscal year 2015-2016). If there is no government by this December, an economic contraction is inevitable since there will be no public spending to contribute to GDP.
At the time of publication, the army chief has guaranteed that he will not allow bloodshed and that the martial law will remain in place until it is no longer needed. No one knows exactly when that will be, and a lot of uncertainty remains. The situation requires close monitoring as significant changes can now happen in a matter of hours.
Pavis Devahasadin is a consultant with APCO Worldwide and is based in Bangkok. APCO’s coverage of the political situation in Thailand continues on APCOForum.com.
Photo: Wason Wanichakorn/Associated Press
Editors' note: Thailand's army has changed the name of its command center from the Peace-Keeping Command Centre (PKCC) to the Peace and Order Maintaining Center (POMC). The changes have been reflected in this piece.
