n November 9, the U.S. Treasury Department implemented new sanctions against the Syrian government. The sanctions focus on punishing individuals and entities that provide support to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad regime's oil production network. But sanctions in Syria, as well as the broader Middle East have failed before, and are likely to cause more damage than good.
Since sanctions started in 2011, President al-Assad has remained in power while maintaining the upper hand in a civil war that has taken over 400,000 lives. The objective of the sanctions was to apply pressure to the Assad regime but it has failed, leaving President al-Assad and his supporters in control.
Moving forward, the United States must focus on a more effective strategy—diverting funds to aid humanitarian efforts to those suffering in Syria and its 12 million refugees. With Syria now approaching a decade of conflict, immediate aid as well as a long-term reconstruction plan should be a non-partisan human rights issue for the international community to prioritize.
Sanctions Haven't Worked
"The [al-]Assad regime has a choice: take irreversible steps towards a peaceful resolution of this nearly decade-long conflict or face further crippling sanctions," said U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. As the war approaches almost a decade, President al-Assad has consolidated his power and mostly won Syria’s War, as rebels only hold power in a few strongholds. While sanctions from both the United States and Europe have failed in pushing out Assad, they have further devastated an already fragile Syrian economy.
When the United States announced the Caesar Act in mid-June, Syria devalued its currency by 44 percent. These sanctions hit the already impoverished population causing inflation and making essential goods like bread or fruit unaffordable. "The regime elites continue to flourish… (while) the people of the jurisdiction pay the ultimate penalty from the poverty that is inflicted on the government," said John E. Smith, the former director of the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control.
Sanctions are not the cause of Syria's economic woes—per capita income was among the lowest in the region before the start of the war. However, the restrictions placed on the Syrian government and its partners have devastated the economy. The regulations have depreciated the exchange rate, while increasing the difficulty of receiving foreign aid, particularly in government-controlled regions.
A Path Forward
Working with UN agencies, like OCHA (Organization for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs) and NGOs will be critical to providing humanitarian aid. Currently, over 11 million people in Syria are in need, including 6.2 million internally displaced people. A multi-sectoral response plan that focuses on nutrition, protection (particularly for children), gender-based violence, water, sanitation, and hygiene, as well as livelihood needs is critical to prevent future loss of life. Delivering the necessary aid while rebuilding the country will be no small task. Reconstruction efforts will likely cost at least USD 250 billion dollars, greater than the GDP of roughly 80 percent of the world's nations. With no less than 400,000 dead in the conflict, the necessity of stronger humanitarian intervention needs to be implemented immediately. Beyond the moral implications, a peaceful Syria is critical to the long-term stability of the Middle East.
Non-partisan international organizations should facilitate the reconstruction process, as Syria is unlikely to work with most western nations. In turn, NATO countries are unlikely to contribute to this project since they have been trying to push President Assad from power. With ISIS no longer playing a significant role in the conflict, international attention has been diverted.
A post-war recovery plan ideally would find ways to create revenue to implement fiscal policy for rebuilding infrastructure, alongside prudent monetary policy to curb inflation. But it is difficult to imagine the Assad regime will fully cooperate with an international reconstruction plan for the Syrian economy. Supporting over 12 million refugees, half of whom are internally displaced—should be a non-partisan issue with a realistic chance to move forward. “Children are sleeping in flooded fields with no running water or proper protection from the elements. We’ve provided blankets, heaters, and cash, but people have no money to buy fuel and have told us that they are now burning clothes and trash to keep warm,” says World Vision International President Andrew Morley.
Over 6 million internally displaced refugees, including 2.5 million children, are in the most critical need of humanitarian assistance. Keeping borders open while ensuring refugees' safety has helped mitigate the refugee burden, and states must continue this practice to ensure the safety of those often traveling in miserable conditions.
Providing financial and political support for countries with high Syrian refugee populations will help reduce the strain of adding more internally displaced people. Lebanon has been a champion—taking in 1.5 million refugees, or nearly a quarter of its population. This has taken a considerable toll on the Lebanese economy. Supporting high refugee population countries, such as Lebanon, will help benefit the refugees while stabilizing the region.
The Challenge of Aid vs. Reconstruction
Over the summer, the European Union and the United Nations gathered virtually in Brussels to raise 5.5 billion dollars for humanitarian aid efforts. These commitments put fundraising efforts roughly in pace with the previous year—a positive takeaway given financial constraints due to the global pandemic. However, the conference discussed humanitarian aid, not reconstruction, leaving Syria's future hanging in the balance.
At some point, a long-term development plan should begin—one that focuses on rebuilding infrastructure, improving education, while appeasing a diverse population in a conflicted region. If the war ended today, reconstruction efforts could still take decades. Prioritizing refugee security in neighboring countries and those internally displaced is an important step both from a human rights perspective and for regional stability. The challenge remains since international governments do not want to support the Assad regime—an understandable sentiment given the violence that it has perpetuated.
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Syria Needs a Reconstruction Plan, Not More Sanctions
January 26, 2021
O
n November 9, the U.S. Treasury Department implemented new sanctions against the Syrian government. The sanctions focus on punishing individuals and entities that provide support to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad regime's oil production network. But sanctions in Syria, as well as the broader Middle East have failed before, and are likely to cause more damage than good.
Since sanctions started in 2011, President al-Assad has remained in power while maintaining the upper hand in a civil war that has taken over 400,000 lives. The objective of the sanctions was to apply pressure to the Assad regime but it has failed, leaving President al-Assad and his supporters in control.
Moving forward, the United States must focus on a more effective strategy—diverting funds to aid humanitarian efforts to those suffering in Syria and its 12 million refugees. With Syria now approaching a decade of conflict, immediate aid as well as a long-term reconstruction plan should be a non-partisan human rights issue for the international community to prioritize.
Sanctions Haven't Worked
"The [al-]Assad regime has a choice: take irreversible steps towards a peaceful resolution of this nearly decade-long conflict or face further crippling sanctions," said U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. As the war approaches almost a decade, President al-Assad has consolidated his power and mostly won Syria’s War, as rebels only hold power in a few strongholds. While sanctions from both the United States and Europe have failed in pushing out Assad, they have further devastated an already fragile Syrian economy.
When the United States announced the Caesar Act in mid-June, Syria devalued its currency by 44 percent. These sanctions hit the already impoverished population causing inflation and making essential goods like bread or fruit unaffordable. "The regime elites continue to flourish… (while) the people of the jurisdiction pay the ultimate penalty from the poverty that is inflicted on the government," said John E. Smith, the former director of the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control.
Sanctions are not the cause of Syria's economic woes—per capita income was among the lowest in the region before the start of the war. However, the restrictions placed on the Syrian government and its partners have devastated the economy. The regulations have depreciated the exchange rate, while increasing the difficulty of receiving foreign aid, particularly in government-controlled regions.
A Path Forward
Working with UN agencies, like OCHA (Organization for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs) and NGOs will be critical to providing humanitarian aid. Currently, over 11 million people in Syria are in need, including 6.2 million internally displaced people. A multi-sectoral response plan that focuses on nutrition, protection (particularly for children), gender-based violence, water, sanitation, and hygiene, as well as livelihood needs is critical to prevent future loss of life. Delivering the necessary aid while rebuilding the country will be no small task. Reconstruction efforts will likely cost at least USD 250 billion dollars, greater than the GDP of roughly 80 percent of the world's nations. With no less than 400,000 dead in the conflict, the necessity of stronger humanitarian intervention needs to be implemented immediately. Beyond the moral implications, a peaceful Syria is critical to the long-term stability of the Middle East.
Non-partisan international organizations should facilitate the reconstruction process, as Syria is unlikely to work with most western nations. In turn, NATO countries are unlikely to contribute to this project since they have been trying to push President Assad from power. With ISIS no longer playing a significant role in the conflict, international attention has been diverted.
A post-war recovery plan ideally would find ways to create revenue to implement fiscal policy for rebuilding infrastructure, alongside prudent monetary policy to curb inflation. But it is difficult to imagine the Assad regime will fully cooperate with an international reconstruction plan for the Syrian economy. Supporting over 12 million refugees, half of whom are internally displaced—should be a non-partisan issue with a realistic chance to move forward. “Children are sleeping in flooded fields with no running water or proper protection from the elements. We’ve provided blankets, heaters, and cash, but people have no money to buy fuel and have told us that they are now burning clothes and trash to keep warm,” says World Vision International President Andrew Morley.
Over 6 million internally displaced refugees, including 2.5 million children, are in the most critical need of humanitarian assistance. Keeping borders open while ensuring refugees' safety has helped mitigate the refugee burden, and states must continue this practice to ensure the safety of those often traveling in miserable conditions.
Providing financial and political support for countries with high Syrian refugee populations will help reduce the strain of adding more internally displaced people. Lebanon has been a champion—taking in 1.5 million refugees, or nearly a quarter of its population. This has taken a considerable toll on the Lebanese economy. Supporting high refugee population countries, such as Lebanon, will help benefit the refugees while stabilizing the region.
The Challenge of Aid vs. Reconstruction
Over the summer, the European Union and the United Nations gathered virtually in Brussels to raise 5.5 billion dollars for humanitarian aid efforts. These commitments put fundraising efforts roughly in pace with the previous year—a positive takeaway given financial constraints due to the global pandemic. However, the conference discussed humanitarian aid, not reconstruction, leaving Syria's future hanging in the balance.
At some point, a long-term development plan should begin—one that focuses on rebuilding infrastructure, improving education, while appeasing a diverse population in a conflicted region. If the war ended today, reconstruction efforts could still take decades. Prioritizing refugee security in neighboring countries and those internally displaced is an important step both from a human rights perspective and for regional stability. The challenge remains since international governments do not want to support the Assad regime—an understandable sentiment given the violence that it has perpetuated.
