There are just six months to go until the European Parliament elections. Imagine the buzz that you would hear six months before a U.S. presidential election, and indeed consider a typical national election anywhere across Europe. You would know the parties and candidates; you would see daily gossip in the press on policies and personalities; and you would read regular polling updates. European elections are a little different.
Don’t get me wrong—it is a growing topic of conversation and a few names, faces, and ideas are already shaping the media narrative, with articles hitting the mainstream press in publications such as Reuters, Der Spiegel, and El Pais. However, considering the importance of the European Parliament, it is amazing that many citizens will not know until the last minute whose names they will see on the ballot. So, as Brussels observers start to piece together the jigsaw puzzle, what do we know, and what do we not know at this point?
We know that the current President of the European Parliament, German Socialist Martin Schulz, wants to be the next president of the European Commission, and we know he is likely to get the backing of the vast majority of the centre-left political family, after they appointed him as their ‘candidate designate’. However, we don’t know who will be the ‘incumbent’ centre-right’s nominee for Commission president. José Manuel Barroso is nearly certain to step down, if Brussels political rumors are to be believed. But we will not know whom the party will nominate to succeed him until a congress in Dublin in March, should they retain their Parliamentary majority. They have committed to propose a candidate with ‘executive’ experience—probably meaning a current or past head of state. Fredrik Reinfeldt of Sweden will likely leave office around the time a new Commission is formed, and outgoing Luxembourg PM Jean-Claude Juncker is widely respected and seen as an ardent Europhile. Enda Kenny, the current Irish PM, seems to be the current media favourite, but he has been non-committal to date.
The other centrist party, the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats, is also working on its manifesto and will kick off its candidate nomination process with a congress this week in London. The Green Party’s candidate will come from a shortlist of four—José Bové, Monica Frassoni, Ska Keller, and Rebecca Harms—who are enjoying a rather friendly primary campaign that looks likely to serve the eventual winner well by raising the whole group’s profile in a social-media focused campaign.
The far-left and far-right are also gearing up for their respective but very different versions of a ‘populist’ campaign. The French National Front, led by Marine Le Pen, is topping national polls, but its rebranding still sits uneasily with many people, especially since it has formed an electoral alliance with nationalist parties including the anti-Islamic Dutch Party of Freedom led by Geert Wilders. The UK Independence Party declined an invitation to join them, though, and they will not be inviting extremist groups such as the Greek Golden Dawn. On the other end of the spectrum, the Greek far-left is likely to play a prominent role, with its charismatic leader Alex Tsipras expected to lead the European Left family as their candidate for the Commission Presidency. The membership-driven Pirate Party is also working on a common manifesto, hoping to build on their success in the last Parliament elections. But none of these groups are likely to be able to present a serious contender for the Commission Presidency.
So that is where we stand for the ‘top job’, but what about those thousands of MEP candidates whose names will be on the ballot six months from now? Again it is a mixed picture. The UK’s lists for the mainstream parties have been complete for some time now, and the candidates are actively knocking on doors, engaging via social media, and promoting themselves in the local press. Across the Nordic countries there are extensive lists in place and candidates are talking to potential voters as well. The main Dutch and Maltese parties are well advanced, the French Socialists have just announced their leading candidates, and other individual parties across the Member States are making progress.
Regrettably for citizens across much of Southern Europe, they are expected to have just a month or so to get to know their candidates before the elections. One imagines that the politicians themselves in countries like Greece, Spain, Portugal, or Italy may regret that they have not had a chance to express their personalities earlier and lay the foundations for popular support as individuals, rather than just as a member of a party. ‘Personality politics’ is being pushed for the Commission, while in the Parliament there is a risk that many MEPs will get picked despite being ‘unknowns’.
Another fascinating element of the campaign is the increasing level of activism by interest groups—the young, the old, the animal lovers, the education champions, the children’s rights defenders—who are all presenting manifestos and seeking pledges from future MEPs to support their chosen cause. It is an interesting trade-off for candidates to consider, as backing such groups, with their large and diverse memberships, can create a lot of visibility and goodwill as voters seek a familiar name or face to support at the ballot box. After all, who does not want to vote for a caring candidate who loves puppies and promises to work towards better youth employment and training while providing for the elderly? No matter the outcome, it promises to get even more interesting in the next six months.
In a series of articles, Diplomatic Courier and APCO Worldwide are partnering to cover the 2014 European Union elections. Find more information about this series here. Follow @EPElections for daily news and updates from APCO’s team in Brussels.
Tim McPhie is an associate director in APCO Worldwide’s Brussels office. He is the primary voice behind the @EPElections feed which gathers the latest news and commentary on the upcoming elections in Europe.
Photo: European Parliament (cc).
a global affairs media network
Six Months Until European Parliament Elections, What Do We Know?
November 25, 2013
There are just six months to go until the European Parliament elections. Imagine the buzz that you would hear six months before a U.S. presidential election, and indeed consider a typical national election anywhere across Europe. You would know the parties and candidates; you would see daily gossip in the press on policies and personalities; and you would read regular polling updates. European elections are a little different.
Don’t get me wrong—it is a growing topic of conversation and a few names, faces, and ideas are already shaping the media narrative, with articles hitting the mainstream press in publications such as Reuters, Der Spiegel, and El Pais. However, considering the importance of the European Parliament, it is amazing that many citizens will not know until the last minute whose names they will see on the ballot. So, as Brussels observers start to piece together the jigsaw puzzle, what do we know, and what do we not know at this point?
We know that the current President of the European Parliament, German Socialist Martin Schulz, wants to be the next president of the European Commission, and we know he is likely to get the backing of the vast majority of the centre-left political family, after they appointed him as their ‘candidate designate’. However, we don’t know who will be the ‘incumbent’ centre-right’s nominee for Commission president. José Manuel Barroso is nearly certain to step down, if Brussels political rumors are to be believed. But we will not know whom the party will nominate to succeed him until a congress in Dublin in March, should they retain their Parliamentary majority. They have committed to propose a candidate with ‘executive’ experience—probably meaning a current or past head of state. Fredrik Reinfeldt of Sweden will likely leave office around the time a new Commission is formed, and outgoing Luxembourg PM Jean-Claude Juncker is widely respected and seen as an ardent Europhile. Enda Kenny, the current Irish PM, seems to be the current media favourite, but he has been non-committal to date.
The other centrist party, the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats, is also working on its manifesto and will kick off its candidate nomination process with a congress this week in London. The Green Party’s candidate will come from a shortlist of four—José Bové, Monica Frassoni, Ska Keller, and Rebecca Harms—who are enjoying a rather friendly primary campaign that looks likely to serve the eventual winner well by raising the whole group’s profile in a social-media focused campaign.
The far-left and far-right are also gearing up for their respective but very different versions of a ‘populist’ campaign. The French National Front, led by Marine Le Pen, is topping national polls, but its rebranding still sits uneasily with many people, especially since it has formed an electoral alliance with nationalist parties including the anti-Islamic Dutch Party of Freedom led by Geert Wilders. The UK Independence Party declined an invitation to join them, though, and they will not be inviting extremist groups such as the Greek Golden Dawn. On the other end of the spectrum, the Greek far-left is likely to play a prominent role, with its charismatic leader Alex Tsipras expected to lead the European Left family as their candidate for the Commission Presidency. The membership-driven Pirate Party is also working on a common manifesto, hoping to build on their success in the last Parliament elections. But none of these groups are likely to be able to present a serious contender for the Commission Presidency.
So that is where we stand for the ‘top job’, but what about those thousands of MEP candidates whose names will be on the ballot six months from now? Again it is a mixed picture. The UK’s lists for the mainstream parties have been complete for some time now, and the candidates are actively knocking on doors, engaging via social media, and promoting themselves in the local press. Across the Nordic countries there are extensive lists in place and candidates are talking to potential voters as well. The main Dutch and Maltese parties are well advanced, the French Socialists have just announced their leading candidates, and other individual parties across the Member States are making progress.
Regrettably for citizens across much of Southern Europe, they are expected to have just a month or so to get to know their candidates before the elections. One imagines that the politicians themselves in countries like Greece, Spain, Portugal, or Italy may regret that they have not had a chance to express their personalities earlier and lay the foundations for popular support as individuals, rather than just as a member of a party. ‘Personality politics’ is being pushed for the Commission, while in the Parliament there is a risk that many MEPs will get picked despite being ‘unknowns’.
Another fascinating element of the campaign is the increasing level of activism by interest groups—the young, the old, the animal lovers, the education champions, the children’s rights defenders—who are all presenting manifestos and seeking pledges from future MEPs to support their chosen cause. It is an interesting trade-off for candidates to consider, as backing such groups, with their large and diverse memberships, can create a lot of visibility and goodwill as voters seek a familiar name or face to support at the ballot box. After all, who does not want to vote for a caring candidate who loves puppies and promises to work towards better youth employment and training while providing for the elderly? No matter the outcome, it promises to get even more interesting in the next six months.
In a series of articles, Diplomatic Courier and APCO Worldwide are partnering to cover the 2014 European Union elections. Find more information about this series here. Follow @EPElections for daily news and updates from APCO’s team in Brussels.
Tim McPhie is an associate director in APCO Worldwide’s Brussels office. He is the primary voice behind the @EPElections feed which gathers the latest news and commentary on the upcoming elections in Europe.
Photo: European Parliament (cc).
