.

Violence still continues across the Middle East, as protests reignite in Egypt over censorship concerns and Syrian protests become galvanized over the violent death of a thirteen-year-old boy.

Egyptians are protesting again, but this time, they are protesting against the Egyptian military, which has been in control of the country since former President Hosni Mubarak resigned on February 11th.  During the previous protests, the military was considered to be the honest broker in Egyptian politics, as well as the father figure and protector of the protesters against the vicious state police.  However, reports of repressive measures are emerging.  Western media stations have reported that the military tortured and conducted “virginity tests” on female detainees during the 18 days of uprising, and that civilians are being sent to military trials.  But the military is trying to protect its image within Egypt, and has enacted censorship measures that result in any criticism being immediately punished.  Journalists who utter anything negative are called for interrogations, and a blogger, Michael Nabil, has been sentenced to three years in prison for criticizing the military in one of his posts.

The increasing complaints against the military actions have prompted what some have called “Revolution Part II.”  There is increasing worry that the parliamentary elections this fall will elect “old-guard” representatives, and the resulting constitution will merely be a revision of the old one, rather than a new constitution that truly provides for the rights of the people.  In a protest last Friday in Tahrir Square, liberal activists raised a sign reading “Constitution First,” and called for stronger protections for individual freedoms and minority rights before the parliamentary elections.  But their demands may be lost within the crowd.  The protests are suffering from a lack of message coordination, with demands ranging from an increased minimum wage to judicial reforms.  It is still unclear if the military will allow for a transition to true democracy and civil rights if it is not in their best interests, especially if the opposition movements are unable to coordinate unified pressure to force them to do so.

In Syria, protests are gaining momentum and determination, although it is difficult to verify because the Assad regime is not allowing foreign journalists into the country, and two-thirds of the Syrian access to Internet has been blocked.  According to reports from opposition forces in hiding, the protests have found a symbol in the figure of a thirteen-year-old boy, Hamza al-Khitab, who was tortured to death and his mutilated body returned to his family in order to spread fear.  Opposition forces insist this tactic is not new, and that the Assad regime has engaged in torture without regard for age for decades.

The Assad regime has released a statement that Syrian authorities have launched an inquiry into the matter.  The military claims the boy was killed at a protest after he was separated from his father, and the delay in returning the body was due to trouble identifying the body. President Bashar al-Assad claimed to have met personally with the boy’s family and promised reforms, including issuing a decree granting a general amnesty covering all political movements, including the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood. However, the protesters decried the move as a meaningless political gesture, especially when tanks still surround and continue to attack several Syrian towns.

In the meantime, the images of Hamza’s body have provoked international calls for Mr. Assad to step down.  Australia’s foreign minister Kevin Rudd called for the UN Security Council to refer Mr. Assad to the International Criminal Court for “large scale directed action” against Syrian citizens.  U.S. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton called for the Syrian government to begin a real transition to democracy, calling Mr. Assad’s current path “untenable.”

However, there is likely little real actionable support to be found in the West for these struggling movements in Syria and Egypt.  NATO forces just announced that military involvement in Libya will be extended another 90 days, tying up Western military forces already facing austerity measures at home and over-extension abroad.  Unlike the Libya coalition, there is no coordinated effort, beyond official statements, to push Mr. Assad out.  Russia, which announced its belief that Muammar Ghaddafi should resign at last week’s G8 Summit, is still a supporter of the Assad regime in Syria.  The U.S. military’s ties to the Egyptian military are too strong for the U.S. to publicly support any opposition to its actions.  Such a course of action is especially unlikely while the U.S. is still trying to calm a skittish Israel, which feels snubbed after President Obama’s speech on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and worries that the 30-year peace treaty it holds with Egypt may be put in danger by further unrest in that country.

The Arab Spring seems to be withering with the summer heat, just as the attention from the West has lessened or turned to other interests.  If these revolutions are going to result in stable democracies it will be up to the protesters to push for it, against the odds, alone.

The views presented in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the views of any other organization.

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Revolutions Hanging in the Balance

June 4, 2011

Violence still continues across the Middle East, as protests reignite in Egypt over censorship concerns and Syrian protests become galvanized over the violent death of a thirteen-year-old boy.

Egyptians are protesting again, but this time, they are protesting against the Egyptian military, which has been in control of the country since former President Hosni Mubarak resigned on February 11th.  During the previous protests, the military was considered to be the honest broker in Egyptian politics, as well as the father figure and protector of the protesters against the vicious state police.  However, reports of repressive measures are emerging.  Western media stations have reported that the military tortured and conducted “virginity tests” on female detainees during the 18 days of uprising, and that civilians are being sent to military trials.  But the military is trying to protect its image within Egypt, and has enacted censorship measures that result in any criticism being immediately punished.  Journalists who utter anything negative are called for interrogations, and a blogger, Michael Nabil, has been sentenced to three years in prison for criticizing the military in one of his posts.

The increasing complaints against the military actions have prompted what some have called “Revolution Part II.”  There is increasing worry that the parliamentary elections this fall will elect “old-guard” representatives, and the resulting constitution will merely be a revision of the old one, rather than a new constitution that truly provides for the rights of the people.  In a protest last Friday in Tahrir Square, liberal activists raised a sign reading “Constitution First,” and called for stronger protections for individual freedoms and minority rights before the parliamentary elections.  But their demands may be lost within the crowd.  The protests are suffering from a lack of message coordination, with demands ranging from an increased minimum wage to judicial reforms.  It is still unclear if the military will allow for a transition to true democracy and civil rights if it is not in their best interests, especially if the opposition movements are unable to coordinate unified pressure to force them to do so.

In Syria, protests are gaining momentum and determination, although it is difficult to verify because the Assad regime is not allowing foreign journalists into the country, and two-thirds of the Syrian access to Internet has been blocked.  According to reports from opposition forces in hiding, the protests have found a symbol in the figure of a thirteen-year-old boy, Hamza al-Khitab, who was tortured to death and his mutilated body returned to his family in order to spread fear.  Opposition forces insist this tactic is not new, and that the Assad regime has engaged in torture without regard for age for decades.

The Assad regime has released a statement that Syrian authorities have launched an inquiry into the matter.  The military claims the boy was killed at a protest after he was separated from his father, and the delay in returning the body was due to trouble identifying the body. President Bashar al-Assad claimed to have met personally with the boy’s family and promised reforms, including issuing a decree granting a general amnesty covering all political movements, including the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood. However, the protesters decried the move as a meaningless political gesture, especially when tanks still surround and continue to attack several Syrian towns.

In the meantime, the images of Hamza’s body have provoked international calls for Mr. Assad to step down.  Australia’s foreign minister Kevin Rudd called for the UN Security Council to refer Mr. Assad to the International Criminal Court for “large scale directed action” against Syrian citizens.  U.S. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton called for the Syrian government to begin a real transition to democracy, calling Mr. Assad’s current path “untenable.”

However, there is likely little real actionable support to be found in the West for these struggling movements in Syria and Egypt.  NATO forces just announced that military involvement in Libya will be extended another 90 days, tying up Western military forces already facing austerity measures at home and over-extension abroad.  Unlike the Libya coalition, there is no coordinated effort, beyond official statements, to push Mr. Assad out.  Russia, which announced its belief that Muammar Ghaddafi should resign at last week’s G8 Summit, is still a supporter of the Assad regime in Syria.  The U.S. military’s ties to the Egyptian military are too strong for the U.S. to publicly support any opposition to its actions.  Such a course of action is especially unlikely while the U.S. is still trying to calm a skittish Israel, which feels snubbed after President Obama’s speech on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and worries that the 30-year peace treaty it holds with Egypt may be put in danger by further unrest in that country.

The Arab Spring seems to be withering with the summer heat, just as the attention from the West has lessened or turned to other interests.  If these revolutions are going to result in stable democracies it will be up to the protesters to push for it, against the odds, alone.

The views presented in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the views of any other organization.