In late 2013, the World Economic Forum published its annual Outlook on the Global Agenda. The report provides insight on the global challenges of the upcoming 12 to 18 months. By collecting views and opinions from more than 1,500 global experts of business, government, academia, and civil society, the report offers a comprehensive overview of the world, the most pressing issues shaping our societies, and anticipates the changes to come.
Years ago, people would think that what happened "over there" would have little or no consequences "over here", but in today's globalized world that is no longer true. The best way to address complex situations are with combined perspectives and complementary disciplines.
The report focuses on the 10 biggest trends that will take place in 2014 and contextualizes them so as to evaluate how they will play out globally, as well as how they will impact different regions:
The rising societal tensions in the Middle East and North Africa. The Arab Spring seemed to bring clarity to the region as it embarked on a path to a more pluralistic society and democracy. However, just three years later we are witnessing rising uncertainty in the region, which is mostly rooted to societal polarization. Respondents to the report saw this as the biggest challenge of the upcoming year. A climate of lack of trust and intolerance among the populations is leading to secretarial tensions and fractured regional cooperation. Unemployment (27 percent) and political instability (45 percent) in the region are preventing countries from establishing a smooth transition to stability, which will only result in either a defeat of hope or a revival.
Widening income disparities. This phenomenon is impacting social stability and security on a global scale. Now it is not only the poor who are getting left behind, but also the middle class. This is an especially pressing issue in North America. A movement is growing around this problem, unrest cloaked in a desire to change from one political leader to another as people become increasingly concerned about being able to afford their basic needs. Unemployment will also increase political and social strife, most of all in developing countries, but the right long-term strategies and political will could counteract this.
Persistent structural unemployment. People need to be employed; otherwise it will lead to social unrest. In order to address this, innovation and cross-border investments are needed. Resisting to protectionist measures and adapting a more global view of unemployment would be a considerable improvement. The solutions required vary from region to region, but while we think that jobs are disappearing, they are not; they are just evolving: losses in one sector means gains in another. For this reason the private sector and the government need to cooperate to crate jobs and invest in workers so as to encourage employment and economic stability.
Intensifying cyber-threats. Perceived digital warfare is escalating as a sophisticated breed of attack against corporations, governments, and individuals—everyone can be affected. As we come into an era of "the internet of things", even physical objects are enabled by the internet, which converts them into prey for hackers. This resulted in the threat that respondents of the survey knew the least about, and this lack of understanding could be a reflection on our inability to deal with it on a national and institutional level. It is not easy to secure these things as this is leading to many undiscovered vulnerabilities. However, governments, NGOs, and companies should focus on resilience. Rather than trying to stop these threats (which is almost impossible), they should attempt to minimize their effects and consequences. Cyber-threats will always be an unpredictable current but they can be managed.
Inaction on climate change. As extreme weather events take place all over the world, with each day that passes we are seeing how the consequences of insufficient action on climate change are extremely underestimated. If not addressed in an adequate and timely fashion, climate change can wipe out any progress mankind has made in economic and social development over the past 20 years. Despite the international and national action on the matter, it is not moving fast enough, and there is no human endeavor that is not in some way linked to climate change. This means that no human is exempt from responsibility.
Diminishing confidence in economic policies. It has to be said that few people saw the current economic crisis coming, but the sluggish pace of recovery since (decision-makers are unsure of which policies to implement) and the unrealistic expectations that we place in the hands of public policy have been adding on the problem. Younger people tend to be especially critical about the current economic policies and ascribe them as the most significant issue of the moment. Confidence has to be rebuilt, as well as taking advantage of the opportunities that have come out of the crisis. The G20 was a great example of addressing the interconnected aspect of the global economy, but its potential has been permitted to waste away. Cooperative efforts will be the best way to deal with these problems, which is why there should be more initiatives such like the G20.
A lack of values in leadership. This is rooted in the question of why people seek leadership in the first place: to strive for common good or for personal gain? Leaders need to realize that a person will never feel safe in a country where the majority is struggling, which is why failing to recognize common good as the only alternative is creating a lot of skepticism in terms of leadership values. Young people under 40 are the most dissatisfied on the lack of values in leadership and also feel like they don't have a voice—there is insufficient sharing of views, values, and vision. Not all leaders will be saints, but a positive global vision needs to be developed in order to tackle this issue, and sharing information is the key.
The expanding middle class in Asia. The group currently stands at 500 million and will grow to 1.74 billion by 2020—an unprecedented seismic shift in history. As many Asians start to come out of poverty, a big positive outcome of this growing middle class is the reduction of conflict in the region. However, by aspiring to Western standards, this growing middle class is putting a tremendous strain on the environment. These societies need to be more responsible on their impact on the environment, but as their incredible brainpower contributes to the realm of science and technology, it may be possible to foster economic growth while reducing resource use.
The growing importance of megacities. While they represent the climax of many current problems, megacities are also the cauldrons of innovation, wealth, and creation. They may be different in many aspects, but all megacities share the same "DNA": the people. Cities have an organic quality; they evolve and grow out of interaction between people. For this reason, their growth has to be met with the improvement of social conditions so as to become major economic engines. The great metropolises of the world facilitate human interaction and this creates the soul of the cities: if this is ignored, the result will be ghost towns with no sense of community. This is also a question of global sustainability: will there be enough to sustain this phenomenon and satisfy the needs of this class?
The rapid spread of misinformation online. It is hard to assess the spread of misinformation or where it comes from, but it is crucial to consider the political-cultural setting in which it spreads and is interpreted. Often, misinterpretation is found at the intersection between social and mainstream media. The volume and dissemination of online information is also unprecedented, big data has changed our lives and in order to understand it we need computer-assisted processing combined with human evaluation to put it into context.
The most important takeaway from the Outlook of the Global Agenda is that the challenges of 2014—and those that will follow—are extremely interconnected. Whether that is a positive or negative thing is a different issue, but it is evident that policy-makers need to acquire a global perspective when addressing these issues. Experts agree that cooperation and long-term solutions are vital to addressing these challenges, but most of all it has become evident that one-size-fits-all solutions are no longer functional. It is only through complementary practices, education, shared know-how and cooperation that solutions to these pressing issues will be found.
This article was originally published in the Diplomatic Courier's January/February 2014 print edition.
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Outlook on the Global Agenda
January 3, 2014
In late 2013, the World Economic Forum published its annual Outlook on the Global Agenda. The report provides insight on the global challenges of the upcoming 12 to 18 months. By collecting views and opinions from more than 1,500 global experts of business, government, academia, and civil society, the report offers a comprehensive overview of the world, the most pressing issues shaping our societies, and anticipates the changes to come.
Years ago, people would think that what happened "over there" would have little or no consequences "over here", but in today's globalized world that is no longer true. The best way to address complex situations are with combined perspectives and complementary disciplines.
The report focuses on the 10 biggest trends that will take place in 2014 and contextualizes them so as to evaluate how they will play out globally, as well as how they will impact different regions:
The rising societal tensions in the Middle East and North Africa. The Arab Spring seemed to bring clarity to the region as it embarked on a path to a more pluralistic society and democracy. However, just three years later we are witnessing rising uncertainty in the region, which is mostly rooted to societal polarization. Respondents to the report saw this as the biggest challenge of the upcoming year. A climate of lack of trust and intolerance among the populations is leading to secretarial tensions and fractured regional cooperation. Unemployment (27 percent) and political instability (45 percent) in the region are preventing countries from establishing a smooth transition to stability, which will only result in either a defeat of hope or a revival.
Widening income disparities. This phenomenon is impacting social stability and security on a global scale. Now it is not only the poor who are getting left behind, but also the middle class. This is an especially pressing issue in North America. A movement is growing around this problem, unrest cloaked in a desire to change from one political leader to another as people become increasingly concerned about being able to afford their basic needs. Unemployment will also increase political and social strife, most of all in developing countries, but the right long-term strategies and political will could counteract this.
Persistent structural unemployment. People need to be employed; otherwise it will lead to social unrest. In order to address this, innovation and cross-border investments are needed. Resisting to protectionist measures and adapting a more global view of unemployment would be a considerable improvement. The solutions required vary from region to region, but while we think that jobs are disappearing, they are not; they are just evolving: losses in one sector means gains in another. For this reason the private sector and the government need to cooperate to crate jobs and invest in workers so as to encourage employment and economic stability.
Intensifying cyber-threats. Perceived digital warfare is escalating as a sophisticated breed of attack against corporations, governments, and individuals—everyone can be affected. As we come into an era of "the internet of things", even physical objects are enabled by the internet, which converts them into prey for hackers. This resulted in the threat that respondents of the survey knew the least about, and this lack of understanding could be a reflection on our inability to deal with it on a national and institutional level. It is not easy to secure these things as this is leading to many undiscovered vulnerabilities. However, governments, NGOs, and companies should focus on resilience. Rather than trying to stop these threats (which is almost impossible), they should attempt to minimize their effects and consequences. Cyber-threats will always be an unpredictable current but they can be managed.
Inaction on climate change. As extreme weather events take place all over the world, with each day that passes we are seeing how the consequences of insufficient action on climate change are extremely underestimated. If not addressed in an adequate and timely fashion, climate change can wipe out any progress mankind has made in economic and social development over the past 20 years. Despite the international and national action on the matter, it is not moving fast enough, and there is no human endeavor that is not in some way linked to climate change. This means that no human is exempt from responsibility.
Diminishing confidence in economic policies. It has to be said that few people saw the current economic crisis coming, but the sluggish pace of recovery since (decision-makers are unsure of which policies to implement) and the unrealistic expectations that we place in the hands of public policy have been adding on the problem. Younger people tend to be especially critical about the current economic policies and ascribe them as the most significant issue of the moment. Confidence has to be rebuilt, as well as taking advantage of the opportunities that have come out of the crisis. The G20 was a great example of addressing the interconnected aspect of the global economy, but its potential has been permitted to waste away. Cooperative efforts will be the best way to deal with these problems, which is why there should be more initiatives such like the G20.
A lack of values in leadership. This is rooted in the question of why people seek leadership in the first place: to strive for common good or for personal gain? Leaders need to realize that a person will never feel safe in a country where the majority is struggling, which is why failing to recognize common good as the only alternative is creating a lot of skepticism in terms of leadership values. Young people under 40 are the most dissatisfied on the lack of values in leadership and also feel like they don't have a voice—there is insufficient sharing of views, values, and vision. Not all leaders will be saints, but a positive global vision needs to be developed in order to tackle this issue, and sharing information is the key.
The expanding middle class in Asia. The group currently stands at 500 million and will grow to 1.74 billion by 2020—an unprecedented seismic shift in history. As many Asians start to come out of poverty, a big positive outcome of this growing middle class is the reduction of conflict in the region. However, by aspiring to Western standards, this growing middle class is putting a tremendous strain on the environment. These societies need to be more responsible on their impact on the environment, but as their incredible brainpower contributes to the realm of science and technology, it may be possible to foster economic growth while reducing resource use.
The growing importance of megacities. While they represent the climax of many current problems, megacities are also the cauldrons of innovation, wealth, and creation. They may be different in many aspects, but all megacities share the same "DNA": the people. Cities have an organic quality; they evolve and grow out of interaction between people. For this reason, their growth has to be met with the improvement of social conditions so as to become major economic engines. The great metropolises of the world facilitate human interaction and this creates the soul of the cities: if this is ignored, the result will be ghost towns with no sense of community. This is also a question of global sustainability: will there be enough to sustain this phenomenon and satisfy the needs of this class?
The rapid spread of misinformation online. It is hard to assess the spread of misinformation or where it comes from, but it is crucial to consider the political-cultural setting in which it spreads and is interpreted. Often, misinterpretation is found at the intersection between social and mainstream media. The volume and dissemination of online information is also unprecedented, big data has changed our lives and in order to understand it we need computer-assisted processing combined with human evaluation to put it into context.
The most important takeaway from the Outlook of the Global Agenda is that the challenges of 2014—and those that will follow—are extremely interconnected. Whether that is a positive or negative thing is a different issue, but it is evident that policy-makers need to acquire a global perspective when addressing these issues. Experts agree that cooperation and long-term solutions are vital to addressing these challenges, but most of all it has become evident that one-size-fits-all solutions are no longer functional. It is only through complementary practices, education, shared know-how and cooperation that solutions to these pressing issues will be found.
This article was originally published in the Diplomatic Courier's January/February 2014 print edition.
