There are two peace process illusions we would be wise to rid ourselves of, and one Obama Illusion that we would be even wiser to realize. First, it is time to rid ourselves of the illusion that President Obama’s statement about the 1967 line forming the basis for Israeli-Palestinian talks was aimed at placating the Palestinian side, and restarting negotiations. Further, it is time to rid ourselves of the illusion that the Palestinian side has any interest in negotiations today, tomorrow, or at any point before the UN September vote. There will be no stopping the Palestinian drive toward September, and Obama has likely known this all along.
Rather, President Obama’s statement on the 1967 line was aimed at giving the European Union the “Illusion” that the United States is still capable of bringing the Israelis and Palestinians back to the negotiating table. In truth, Fatah’s reconciliation with Hamas, Palestinian continued efforts to seek unilateral statehood through the UN, and Netanyahu’s intransigence demonstrate that the U.S. has lost significant leverage over the two sides for now. In the current context, the United States has but one option: to convince European nations to vote against Palestinian statehood in the UN. Ironically, it is the United States' very loss of sway over the Israelis and Palestinians that makes it all the more necessary to convince EU states that progress can still be made; for only if the EU sees hope for negotiations will they consider voting against Palestinian statehood in the UN. Come September, America's diplomatic standing will depend on how successfully it can pull off the Obama Illusion.
The Palestinian declaration lives or dies with a European seal of approval. Unabashed European support come September will serve as a stamp of legitimacy for a Palestinian state that no other continental region can provide (outside of North America, where the U.S. and Canada will surely vote against the resolution). Conversely, opposition from Britain, France, Germany, and others will render the Palestinian resolution feckless.
Given the need to court Europe for Israel’s cause, Israel advocates—Prime Minister Netanyahu included—would be wise to temper their criticisms of Obama’s strategy. The contents of the G8’s communiqué has shown that the Obama Illusion has already borne fruit, endorsing his Middle East vision (which opposes unilateral Palestinian statehood) and promoting “negotiations [as] the only way toward a comprehensive and lasting resolution to the conflict."
European states may well have been far more sympathetic toward the Palestinian resolution had President Obama not made overtures toward the EU positions on the Palestinian issue. Instead, as Obama floats the Illusion, we have yet to see these European “swing states” swing against Israel. European leaders have praised Obama’s mention of the 1967 lines, and while many European leaders remain noncommittal at best, it is a safe bet that Obama’s speeches won him goodwill.
This is why Obama’s critics, both in the U.S. and Israel, must realize that he is neither naive nor unsympathetic to the Jewish state. Obama and Netanyahu’s goals are in fact the same: to defeat the Palestinian resolution in September. Yet whereas Obama seems to understand that in order to do so he will have to make overtures to the Europeans, Netanyahu appears oblivious. His cutting reaction to Obama’s speech, whether borne out of legitimate security fears for his country or a misunderstanding of Obama’s true intent, betrays Netanyahu’s tunnel vision. In Obama’s mention of the 1967 line, the Israeli Prime Minister saw only a concession, while missing out entirely on the bigger picture: an opportunity to avoid Israel’s diplomatic isolation.
Netanyahu may bring America’s Congress to its collective feet, but across the rest of the world, his words will continue to fall on deaf ears. Sooner or later, Netanyahu will come to the realization that he cannot have the cake and eat it too: Israel will either lurch headlong into the diplomatic tsunami, or play into the Obama Illusion. Netanyahu must pick one, and he would be wise to pick the latter.
Gabriel Kohan is a former Israel Government Fellow, and Mark Donig is a Research Intern at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. They can be reached at kohan.donig@gmail.com.
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Op-Ed: What the 1967 Mention is Really About
June 1, 2011
There are two peace process illusions we would be wise to rid ourselves of, and one Obama Illusion that we would be even wiser to realize. First, it is time to rid ourselves of the illusion that President Obama’s statement about the 1967 line forming the basis for Israeli-Palestinian talks was aimed at placating the Palestinian side, and restarting negotiations. Further, it is time to rid ourselves of the illusion that the Palestinian side has any interest in negotiations today, tomorrow, or at any point before the UN September vote. There will be no stopping the Palestinian drive toward September, and Obama has likely known this all along.
Rather, President Obama’s statement on the 1967 line was aimed at giving the European Union the “Illusion” that the United States is still capable of bringing the Israelis and Palestinians back to the negotiating table. In truth, Fatah’s reconciliation with Hamas, Palestinian continued efforts to seek unilateral statehood through the UN, and Netanyahu’s intransigence demonstrate that the U.S. has lost significant leverage over the two sides for now. In the current context, the United States has but one option: to convince European nations to vote against Palestinian statehood in the UN. Ironically, it is the United States' very loss of sway over the Israelis and Palestinians that makes it all the more necessary to convince EU states that progress can still be made; for only if the EU sees hope for negotiations will they consider voting against Palestinian statehood in the UN. Come September, America's diplomatic standing will depend on how successfully it can pull off the Obama Illusion.
The Palestinian declaration lives or dies with a European seal of approval. Unabashed European support come September will serve as a stamp of legitimacy for a Palestinian state that no other continental region can provide (outside of North America, where the U.S. and Canada will surely vote against the resolution). Conversely, opposition from Britain, France, Germany, and others will render the Palestinian resolution feckless.
Given the need to court Europe for Israel’s cause, Israel advocates—Prime Minister Netanyahu included—would be wise to temper their criticisms of Obama’s strategy. The contents of the G8’s communiqué has shown that the Obama Illusion has already borne fruit, endorsing his Middle East vision (which opposes unilateral Palestinian statehood) and promoting “negotiations [as] the only way toward a comprehensive and lasting resolution to the conflict."
European states may well have been far more sympathetic toward the Palestinian resolution had President Obama not made overtures toward the EU positions on the Palestinian issue. Instead, as Obama floats the Illusion, we have yet to see these European “swing states” swing against Israel. European leaders have praised Obama’s mention of the 1967 lines, and while many European leaders remain noncommittal at best, it is a safe bet that Obama’s speeches won him goodwill.
This is why Obama’s critics, both in the U.S. and Israel, must realize that he is neither naive nor unsympathetic to the Jewish state. Obama and Netanyahu’s goals are in fact the same: to defeat the Palestinian resolution in September. Yet whereas Obama seems to understand that in order to do so he will have to make overtures to the Europeans, Netanyahu appears oblivious. His cutting reaction to Obama’s speech, whether borne out of legitimate security fears for his country or a misunderstanding of Obama’s true intent, betrays Netanyahu’s tunnel vision. In Obama’s mention of the 1967 line, the Israeli Prime Minister saw only a concession, while missing out entirely on the bigger picture: an opportunity to avoid Israel’s diplomatic isolation.
Netanyahu may bring America’s Congress to its collective feet, but across the rest of the world, his words will continue to fall on deaf ears. Sooner or later, Netanyahu will come to the realization that he cannot have the cake and eat it too: Israel will either lurch headlong into the diplomatic tsunami, or play into the Obama Illusion. Netanyahu must pick one, and he would be wise to pick the latter.
Gabriel Kohan is a former Israel Government Fellow, and Mark Donig is a Research Intern at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. They can be reached at kohan.donig@gmail.com.
