his year’s NATO Summit is about deterrence. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is in its fourth year and Putin’s goals have not changed, despite over a million casualties. A negotiated peace is not in sight. The war is not about real estate; it is about Putin’s idea of Russia and its place in the world. In this worldview, there is no place for an independent, democratic Ukraine. Putin sees Russia and the West as enemies. Like it or not, we will be facing a hostile Russia for years.
NATO’s Article 5 commitment means that an attack on one is an attack on all. Deterrence depends on having the capability and the will to defend against aggression—and on an adversary believing this to be so.
NATO is itself changing. This reflects a changing world. Rebalancing the Euro–Atlantic defense burden is necessary and urgent. Will it be done in a planned or a disorderly way? The latter can only benefit our adversaries.
The political messaging from the summit—to the public, between allies, and to adversaries—could scarcely be more important.
Conflicts are about what happens in people’s minds as well as on the battlefield or at the negotiating table.
Psychological warfare is as old as conflict. Cognitive warfare is a more recent concept. NATO defines it as “whole of society manipulation … designed to modify perceptions of reality” through “activities which affect attitudes and behaviours.” All countries use public narratives to achieve strategic goals. Cognitive warfare is about the distortion of facts to subvert an opponent. Orwell’s 1984 remains the best guide. His dystopia is built on the principle that “A lie told often enough becomes the truth.”
Russia has invested heavily in tools to distract, deflect, divide, and dismay opponents. The aim is to undermine the capacity and will to distinguish between facts and lies. It can be more effective to sow doubt and fear than to persuade people to believe something. Conspiracy theorists are especially valuable since they erode trust.
In the internet age, information moves quickly, at low cost, and with hardly any accountability. When falsehoods are propagated, the damage is done by the time the truth has caught up.
How do we defend against this? By exposing what is being done to us by our opponents, and by strengthening our public institutions. Cognitive warfare seeks to undermine trust in them. Trust is hard to build and all too easy to lose.
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For NATO to succeed at deterrence, counter cognitive warfare
June 23, 2025
NATO is evolving in response to a changing world, but deterrence will remain core to its identity. To succeed in the future, NATO must perfect countering cognitive warfare, writes Sir Laurie Barstow.
T
his year’s NATO Summit is about deterrence. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is in its fourth year and Putin’s goals have not changed, despite over a million casualties. A negotiated peace is not in sight. The war is not about real estate; it is about Putin’s idea of Russia and its place in the world. In this worldview, there is no place for an independent, democratic Ukraine. Putin sees Russia and the West as enemies. Like it or not, we will be facing a hostile Russia for years.
NATO’s Article 5 commitment means that an attack on one is an attack on all. Deterrence depends on having the capability and the will to defend against aggression—and on an adversary believing this to be so.
NATO is itself changing. This reflects a changing world. Rebalancing the Euro–Atlantic defense burden is necessary and urgent. Will it be done in a planned or a disorderly way? The latter can only benefit our adversaries.
The political messaging from the summit—to the public, between allies, and to adversaries—could scarcely be more important.
Conflicts are about what happens in people’s minds as well as on the battlefield or at the negotiating table.
Psychological warfare is as old as conflict. Cognitive warfare is a more recent concept. NATO defines it as “whole of society manipulation … designed to modify perceptions of reality” through “activities which affect attitudes and behaviours.” All countries use public narratives to achieve strategic goals. Cognitive warfare is about the distortion of facts to subvert an opponent. Orwell’s 1984 remains the best guide. His dystopia is built on the principle that “A lie told often enough becomes the truth.”
Russia has invested heavily in tools to distract, deflect, divide, and dismay opponents. The aim is to undermine the capacity and will to distinguish between facts and lies. It can be more effective to sow doubt and fear than to persuade people to believe something. Conspiracy theorists are especially valuable since they erode trust.
In the internet age, information moves quickly, at low cost, and with hardly any accountability. When falsehoods are propagated, the damage is done by the time the truth has caught up.
How do we defend against this? By exposing what is being done to us by our opponents, and by strengthening our public institutions. Cognitive warfare seeks to undermine trust in them. Trust is hard to build and all too easy to lose.
