uch is set to change as President Joe Biden begins his first 100 days in office. Among government and business leaders in the Middle East, there is much discussion, and some concern, about what to expect. Most likely, though, the Biden administration will seek to avoid sudden moves in foreign policy, the kind that shake markets and create damaging uncertainty. More probable, the new U.S. administration will instead seek to create stability and predictability in American leadership, the inverse of the trademarks of President Trump’s seemingly spontaneous deal-making from the executive office.
Equally likely, the Biden administration will seek incremental changes in U.S. foreign policy rather than revolutionize stances overnight, restoring some of the balance to pre-Trump days.
Many in the region, unlike their counterparts in Europe and elsewhere, are lukewarm about the new U.S. administration. Popular opinion and government elites from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and beyond found support for the Trump administration, at least as it related to their own self-interests at home. The region includes many U.S. allies, some hosting U.S. bases, troops, and strategic operations. The rise and fall of the Arab Spring and Obama Administration’s policies vis-à-vis the region during his tenure, were not always welcomed among many leaders of the region.
However, it’s not a foregone conclusion that the Biden administration will simply copy and paste Obama era foreign policies now. During Biden’s more-than 35-year Senate career, he served on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, including as ranking member and chairman. As such, he has decades of experience in shaping U.S. foreign policy, both legislatively, and in his eight years as vice president. Biden and his senior advisers will have their own views and own policy goals. He has taken countless trips around the world and met leaders in most corners of the globe, a very different presidential preparation than President Trump’s.
Importantly, Biden has signaled that he wants to extend again U.S. leadership around on the global stage. Of course, that creates nervousness as we wait to see where he will start exerting that leadership first. President Biden clearly has things he wants to prove to the world and to world leaders. Based on his campaign rhetoric, the senior staff he has nominated and other signals he has sent, we can expect a number of changes from the Biden Administration.
First, institutional bilateral engagements between diplomats will replace personal, one to one relationships developed during the Trump administration. Foreign relations will be driven by U.S. State Department leadership and senior White House foreign policy and national security advisers with deep institutional experience. This will be a radical change for many regional leaders. Expect less foreign policy to come out of the Oval Office directly, and more from the new State Department leaders in Foggy Bottom. Relationships, as a result, will become more institutional and less personal than they were over the past four years. Remember, though, it’s not just the White House: Gulf governments are already signing up new lobbyists to reach out to lawmakers on both sides of the aisle as the power dynamics shift on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington.
Next, for some, particularly the Saudi leadership, they know there will be a radical departure from the direct line they had to the White House via son-in-law adviser Jared Kushner. Concerns and commitments over Yemen, human rights, and women’s rights will continue to be the focus of at least publicly articulated foreign policy priorities. Old friends will likely be missed in the short-term, and new relationships may come with more expectations or strings. How hard a line the White House will take—and now both Democratically controlled houses of Congress—is yet to be seen. Governments in the region will likely need to find ways to indicate their willingness to engage with the Biden Administration, aware of the new expectations and a new tone to the conversation.
Finally, stability will always be at the forefront of any U.S. administration’s minds. President Trump presided over a mixed period with regard to the Middle East. Tensions with Iran were heightened and still threaten to escalate. Relations with Israel have been normalized among several nations in the region via the Abraham Accords. Qatar has been brought back into the fold—perhaps an intentional signal to the Biden administration that Gulf leaders want to move forward positively and productively—and further unite with the U.S. against a common foe: Iran. China’s rise on the global stage, the influence of Russia, and many other factors will continue to influence the region’s relationship with the U.S. and highlight their interdependence.
Indeed, the world is still grappling with the ongoing pandemic and the hope of vaccines to turn the page. Much has been said about collaboration among world leaders during this time—rather than confrontation. Gulf nations should expect a more serious, if not chillier, tone from the Biden White House. However, the desire to ensure peace, economic prosperity, and the stability of a new normalcy will likely prevail in the next chapter of U.S.-Gulf relations.
a global affairs media network
First 100 Days: U.S.-Gulf Relations
January 22, 2021
M
uch is set to change as President Joe Biden begins his first 100 days in office. Among government and business leaders in the Middle East, there is much discussion, and some concern, about what to expect. Most likely, though, the Biden administration will seek to avoid sudden moves in foreign policy, the kind that shake markets and create damaging uncertainty. More probable, the new U.S. administration will instead seek to create stability and predictability in American leadership, the inverse of the trademarks of President Trump’s seemingly spontaneous deal-making from the executive office.
Equally likely, the Biden administration will seek incremental changes in U.S. foreign policy rather than revolutionize stances overnight, restoring some of the balance to pre-Trump days.
Many in the region, unlike their counterparts in Europe and elsewhere, are lukewarm about the new U.S. administration. Popular opinion and government elites from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and beyond found support for the Trump administration, at least as it related to their own self-interests at home. The region includes many U.S. allies, some hosting U.S. bases, troops, and strategic operations. The rise and fall of the Arab Spring and Obama Administration’s policies vis-à-vis the region during his tenure, were not always welcomed among many leaders of the region.
However, it’s not a foregone conclusion that the Biden administration will simply copy and paste Obama era foreign policies now. During Biden’s more-than 35-year Senate career, he served on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, including as ranking member and chairman. As such, he has decades of experience in shaping U.S. foreign policy, both legislatively, and in his eight years as vice president. Biden and his senior advisers will have their own views and own policy goals. He has taken countless trips around the world and met leaders in most corners of the globe, a very different presidential preparation than President Trump’s.
Importantly, Biden has signaled that he wants to extend again U.S. leadership around on the global stage. Of course, that creates nervousness as we wait to see where he will start exerting that leadership first. President Biden clearly has things he wants to prove to the world and to world leaders. Based on his campaign rhetoric, the senior staff he has nominated and other signals he has sent, we can expect a number of changes from the Biden Administration.
First, institutional bilateral engagements between diplomats will replace personal, one to one relationships developed during the Trump administration. Foreign relations will be driven by U.S. State Department leadership and senior White House foreign policy and national security advisers with deep institutional experience. This will be a radical change for many regional leaders. Expect less foreign policy to come out of the Oval Office directly, and more from the new State Department leaders in Foggy Bottom. Relationships, as a result, will become more institutional and less personal than they were over the past four years. Remember, though, it’s not just the White House: Gulf governments are already signing up new lobbyists to reach out to lawmakers on both sides of the aisle as the power dynamics shift on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington.
Next, for some, particularly the Saudi leadership, they know there will be a radical departure from the direct line they had to the White House via son-in-law adviser Jared Kushner. Concerns and commitments over Yemen, human rights, and women’s rights will continue to be the focus of at least publicly articulated foreign policy priorities. Old friends will likely be missed in the short-term, and new relationships may come with more expectations or strings. How hard a line the White House will take—and now both Democratically controlled houses of Congress—is yet to be seen. Governments in the region will likely need to find ways to indicate their willingness to engage with the Biden Administration, aware of the new expectations and a new tone to the conversation.
Finally, stability will always be at the forefront of any U.S. administration’s minds. President Trump presided over a mixed period with regard to the Middle East. Tensions with Iran were heightened and still threaten to escalate. Relations with Israel have been normalized among several nations in the region via the Abraham Accords. Qatar has been brought back into the fold—perhaps an intentional signal to the Biden administration that Gulf leaders want to move forward positively and productively—and further unite with the U.S. against a common foe: Iran. China’s rise on the global stage, the influence of Russia, and many other factors will continue to influence the region’s relationship with the U.S. and highlight their interdependence.
Indeed, the world is still grappling with the ongoing pandemic and the hope of vaccines to turn the page. Much has been said about collaboration among world leaders during this time—rather than confrontation. Gulf nations should expect a more serious, if not chillier, tone from the Biden White House. However, the desire to ensure peace, economic prosperity, and the stability of a new normalcy will likely prevail in the next chapter of U.S.-Gulf relations.
