s the world enters the sixth month of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, reassurance that the pandemic is not permanent has given way to a new type of headline. On July 23, 2020, sentiments expressed by doctors in smaller outlets reached national attention when researcher Devi Sridhar told NPR’s Morning Edition that the coronavirus will probably be around forever. Other experts have concurred. In May 2020, when asked if COVID-19 would be in human populations forever, Dr. Naomi Roberts, professor of medical history at Yale University, told the Yale School of Medicine blog that she thought the possibility was “very conceivable.” While many hoped that the pandemic would merely be a temporary inconvenience, the world appears to be entering a future where coronavirus may never be a thing of the past.
Though they didn’t know it at the time, those who lived through the 1918 influenza pandemic found themselves experiencing a similar moment. Dr. Jeffrey Taubenberger, one of the first researchers to genetically sequence the influenza virus, told the Radiolab podcast that though the 1918 influenza pandemic started petering out around 1920, it never really went away. The original 1918 virus continued to circulate year after year, changing just enough to infiltrate human hosts who had previously developed immunity to earlier forms of the virus.
Over the next 100 years, the virus would mutate into several different forms, some of which resulted in smaller pandemics, which killed millions of people. For example, in 1957, the influenza virus collided with an unknown avian flu virus and formed the H2N2 virus, which ultimately killed over one million people worldwide. Some years, two different strains of influenza, both descending from the 1918 virus, circulated at the same time. Ultimately, Dr. Taubenberger told Radiolab producers that every strain of influenza currently circulating can trace its roots to the 1918 virus. The virus that caused the 1918 influenza outbreak never really left, even though the pandemic event it caused was over within two years.
As our experience with the 1918 influenza virus indicates, the reality of endemic illness could be much less threatening than the statement “coronavirus will be with us forever” indicates. After all, there are already four other coronaviruses currently in permanent circulation in human populations (229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1), all of which bring about mild infections with symptoms similar to those of the common cold. Further, Dr. Amesh Adalja, a researcher at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health’s Center for Health Security, argues that the novel coronavirus has several traits, which make it likely to continue thriving in humans. Unlike Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) or Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), the novel coronavirus passes easily between people. Additionally, COVID-19 has become widespread in the population and there is not yet a vaccine.
Dr. Adalja argues that it is likely that the novel coronavirus will join these existing endemic coronaviruses and “have a similar pattern of recurrence after this first wave.” However, several factors determine COVID-19’s potential danger if it were to become an endemic illness. Perhaps most importantly, researchers have yet to learn how long immunity to COVID-19 lasts once someone has recovered from infection. Though the headlines have recently been peppered with rumors that immunity can decrease significantly within just a few weeks, much data is still needed to evaluate whether patients retain long term immunity to COVID-19.
Further, it’s important for researchers to monitor the novel coronavirus’s mutation rate. COVID-19 may remain a pervasive, common illness in human populations if the virus changes enough every year to prevent people from developing long-term immunity to the infection. For example, influenza, which mutates easily and changes its surface proteins to prevent our immune systems from recognizing the virus, requires a new vaccine every year because antibodies from one year’s strain may not necessarily prevent an infection from the next year’s strain.
Ultimately, our best hope for controlling the novel coronavirus likely lies in the development of an effective vaccine. Currently, five vaccines are in the final stage of testing necessary before they can be safely released to the public. Experts currently predict that a COVID-19 vaccine will likely be widely available to the public by mid-2021. Hopefully, even if we’re stuck with the novel coronavirus forever, the release of a widespread vaccine will bring the opportunity to return to life as we knew it.
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Will COVID-19 Be with Us Forever?
Photo by JC Gellidon via Unsplash.
August 6, 2020
A
s the world enters the sixth month of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, reassurance that the pandemic is not permanent has given way to a new type of headline. On July 23, 2020, sentiments expressed by doctors in smaller outlets reached national attention when researcher Devi Sridhar told NPR’s Morning Edition that the coronavirus will probably be around forever. Other experts have concurred. In May 2020, when asked if COVID-19 would be in human populations forever, Dr. Naomi Roberts, professor of medical history at Yale University, told the Yale School of Medicine blog that she thought the possibility was “very conceivable.” While many hoped that the pandemic would merely be a temporary inconvenience, the world appears to be entering a future where coronavirus may never be a thing of the past.
Though they didn’t know it at the time, those who lived through the 1918 influenza pandemic found themselves experiencing a similar moment. Dr. Jeffrey Taubenberger, one of the first researchers to genetically sequence the influenza virus, told the Radiolab podcast that though the 1918 influenza pandemic started petering out around 1920, it never really went away. The original 1918 virus continued to circulate year after year, changing just enough to infiltrate human hosts who had previously developed immunity to earlier forms of the virus.
Over the next 100 years, the virus would mutate into several different forms, some of which resulted in smaller pandemics, which killed millions of people. For example, in 1957, the influenza virus collided with an unknown avian flu virus and formed the H2N2 virus, which ultimately killed over one million people worldwide. Some years, two different strains of influenza, both descending from the 1918 virus, circulated at the same time. Ultimately, Dr. Taubenberger told Radiolab producers that every strain of influenza currently circulating can trace its roots to the 1918 virus. The virus that caused the 1918 influenza outbreak never really left, even though the pandemic event it caused was over within two years.
As our experience with the 1918 influenza virus indicates, the reality of endemic illness could be much less threatening than the statement “coronavirus will be with us forever” indicates. After all, there are already four other coronaviruses currently in permanent circulation in human populations (229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1), all of which bring about mild infections with symptoms similar to those of the common cold. Further, Dr. Amesh Adalja, a researcher at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health’s Center for Health Security, argues that the novel coronavirus has several traits, which make it likely to continue thriving in humans. Unlike Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) or Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), the novel coronavirus passes easily between people. Additionally, COVID-19 has become widespread in the population and there is not yet a vaccine.
Dr. Adalja argues that it is likely that the novel coronavirus will join these existing endemic coronaviruses and “have a similar pattern of recurrence after this first wave.” However, several factors determine COVID-19’s potential danger if it were to become an endemic illness. Perhaps most importantly, researchers have yet to learn how long immunity to COVID-19 lasts once someone has recovered from infection. Though the headlines have recently been peppered with rumors that immunity can decrease significantly within just a few weeks, much data is still needed to evaluate whether patients retain long term immunity to COVID-19.
Further, it’s important for researchers to monitor the novel coronavirus’s mutation rate. COVID-19 may remain a pervasive, common illness in human populations if the virus changes enough every year to prevent people from developing long-term immunity to the infection. For example, influenza, which mutates easily and changes its surface proteins to prevent our immune systems from recognizing the virus, requires a new vaccine every year because antibodies from one year’s strain may not necessarily prevent an infection from the next year’s strain.
Ultimately, our best hope for controlling the novel coronavirus likely lies in the development of an effective vaccine. Currently, five vaccines are in the final stage of testing necessary before they can be safely released to the public. Experts currently predict that a COVID-19 vaccine will likely be widely available to the public by mid-2021. Hopefully, even if we’re stuck with the novel coronavirus forever, the release of a widespread vaccine will bring the opportunity to return to life as we knew it.
