n January of this year, General Mike Minihan of the United States Air Force’s Air Mobility Command warned the country could be at war with China within two years. In a memo to his command, he wrote, “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me [we] will fight in 2025.” Not surprisingly, the Department of Defense distanced itself from the general, saying “These comments are not representative of the department’s view on China.” An emerging consensus, certainly within Washington, is that it is not a question of if, but when, the United States and China move beyond strategic competition to open conflict, almost certainly over Taiwan.
The narrative of war between the United States and China has woven its way into the world of fiction with books like P.W. Singer and August Cole’s “Ghost Fleet” and Admiral James Stavridis and Elliott Ackerman’s “2034” using the conflict as a plot device. In the case of “Ghost Fleet” the authors successfully captured the zeitgeist and imagination of many within the Pentagon—I’ve lost count the number of times I’ve been asked by officers and enlisted personnel alike if I had read the book. While the world of fiction may seem like an escapist pursuit of harmless thrills, it is an invaluable vehicle through which to consider the practical and philosophical issues of future war, something Major General Mick Ryan does with aplomb in his new book “White Sun War” (a copy of which was kindly provided by the publisher for review).
While some books are character- or plot-driven, “White Sun War” is very much a concept-driven book. This makes Ryan’s entry unique and particularly enjoyable. The plot is well-written, and the characters are interesting. Both are, however, vehicles for the exploration of key concepts and issues that will affect the United States and the West more broadly in future war—not just over Taiwan. The interactions between the characters and the scenes Ryan crafts create opportunities to inform and educate the reader. In the real world it is unlikely a senior officer would spend precious time illuminating their counterparts about the ins-and-outs of additive manufacturing (or 3-D printing) during a crisis. For Ryan and the reader, this encounter is, however, a novel way of considering how this technology could affect future warfare.
“White Sun War” is the distillation of defense debates that have taken place in Washington for the last several years in literary form. At its heart, like all speculative fiction, it is more about the present than the future. Ryan masterfully synthesizes these contentious and complex topics into a coherent narrative that also happens to also be a superbly crafted techno-thriller. It is an ambitious undertaking, but Ryan’s first effort at fiction is an enjoyable success.
The futuristic elements of Ryan’s story are all on the edge of believable, even if they require considerable advancements in the next few years. While improvements in battery technology are consistently being made, the issue is less with the innovation and more the ability of the Department of Defense to ingest these technologies across the services. Artificial intelligence is improving in leaps and bounds, but as Dr. Paul Scharre has written in his book “Four Battlegrounds,” it remains remarkably brittle (being designed for a specific purpose that is not transferable across platforms or requirements), and here again the incorporation of these tools into defense planning remains some way off.
Ryan is far more optimistic than many defense planners, policymakers, and technologists about the state of these innovations. Ryan’s time horizon is 2028, just five years out from the present, but those five years are exceptionally consequential for his narrative. Unfortunately, the world five years from today is likely to look alarmingly familiar.
There is some irony then, that the position of strength the United States and its allies find itself ahead of China’s “Operation Plum Blossom” would be due to decisions made today. Here, the real-world auguries are less than propitious. The furor over the Marine Corps “Force Design 2030,” the sustained absence of demand signals for defense industrial base innovation, the interservice and inter-command rivalries, continued underinvestment in the Navy and Air Force, and the hangover of the long Global War on Terrorism (and more) are conspiring to delay critical decisions and skewing resource prioritization. The problem has been identified (China), but Washington is as far from consensus on the solution as is possible. Efforts are underway, but the fruits of legislation like the CHIPS Act—recently approved legislation to spur American semiconductor manufacturing—and others are some years off, assuming all goes well, which will certainly not be the case.
Ryan paints broad-brush portraits of the belligerents and their national positions. While he largely avoids political commentary, he does veer close on occasion. He certainly does not spare criticism of the defense positions of his home country (Australia) or its potential vulnerabilities to Chinese propaganda and information war. While Ryan captures the strategies and defense policies of the United States and its allies, there is a lingering feeling that there is a touch of mirror-imaging when it comes to China. Beijing’s behaviors and conduct—both politically and militarily—feel eerily close to those that Washington policymakers and think-tankers assume the Central Military Commission leadership holds.
At the operational and tactical level, this is perhaps understandable—the challenges that China’s military forces are likely to face are fiendishly like those of the United States and Taiwan. The challenges of logistics, communications, command and control, and intelligence are, at their core, remarkably consistent across theaters, time periods, and countries. Where the difference lies is in how different armies overcome these obstacles and adapt to these issues. At the strategic- and political-level the absence is noticeable. The Chinese premier spouts the requisite lines about reunification and Taiwan as a renegade province, but they are missing a complexity that is found in other thematic elements of the book. In Ryan’s defense, the strategic and political characterizations of the United States are equally cursory, serving merely to provide context for the conflict and decision-making in Beijing.
“White Sun War” is clearly a book that is focused on, and decidedly more comfortable with, the operational and tactical theaters of war, and that is where its strengths are found. Yet, there are consequential leaps that follow. Ryan is right to disabuse notions that a conflict over Taiwan would be quick and that a long war could well follow. The omission of economic considerations from this story is, however, notable. His expectations that the United States and its allies will be in a far better position in just five years to weather potential supply chain disruptions or politically manage the economic pain are very bullish. Equally, the ability of the United States to sustain its forces over a long period of time, in likely contested waters and airspace, and at distance requires a great deal of investment and effort today in sea and airlift, neither of which are forthcoming.
Ryan’s previous book on military adaptation (“War Transformed,”) and his astute lengthy observations on Twitter very much inform “White Sun War.” The learning nature of military organizations is on display, as is the attention to not just what his characters learn in real-time, but how they disseminate those lessons further afield. His emphasis on a longer-term war, something many did not expect in Ukraine, but which is presently the case, also makes his Taiwan scenario stand apart—many assume the war will be over quickly. For Ryan, this is unlikely to be the case.
In the pursuit of gee-whiz technology, thriller authors often ignore the very real battlefield effects of warfare. Ryan wisely avoids this trap. Those in command reflect the undoubted challenges of leading (and losing) men and women in uniform. For those on the frontlines, the grittiness of war and the simplicity of a hot cup of coffee and tea are clearly conveyed. He does reserve some notable disdain for a civil servant/political advisor in the third act—one wonders who crossed Ryan in the past. His main characters and their interactions serve as opportunities to convey complex operational or doctrinal questions to the lay audience, expounding on the complexities of urban and subterranean warfare, or the political dynamics of the Indo-Pacific.
Ryan’s book would do well to include footnotes, links, or an online accompaniment for readers to reference. This is not a question of his credibility, far from it—the addition of such a reference set would only enhance the reading of his book and set it up for long-term use and re-use. “White Sun War” is exceptionally thorough in laying out concepts, doctrines, and theoretical frameworks that I found myself inevitably looking to my phone or laptop to search for a reference point to save for future reading. Some may argue that footnotes are a distraction, but they would only strengthen Ryan’s narrative and help its utility for professional military education.
“White Sun War” is a first-rate techno-thriller. It is an enjoyable read in and of itself, but its concept-driven narrative is what sets it apart from other books. The characters and their interactions illuminate ongoing debates about the future of war and how a conflict between the United States and China could well play out. Even the structural leaps and assumptions that Ryan makes are illuminating in and of themselves: What would be needed today to achieve the future he outlines? While the goal is certainly to avoid war, it is far better to be intellectually prepared for that possibility and its conduct, and Ryan’s entry is a welcome addition to this discussion.
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Conceptualizing a Conflict with China
April 29, 2023
There is an emerging consensus within Washington that the question of open conflict with China is not one of "if" but of "when." Maj. Gen.'s recent book "White Sun War" envisions what open conflict over Taiwan might look like as a work of fiction which is also educational, writes Joshua Huminski.
I
n January of this year, General Mike Minihan of the United States Air Force’s Air Mobility Command warned the country could be at war with China within two years. In a memo to his command, he wrote, “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me [we] will fight in 2025.” Not surprisingly, the Department of Defense distanced itself from the general, saying “These comments are not representative of the department’s view on China.” An emerging consensus, certainly within Washington, is that it is not a question of if, but when, the United States and China move beyond strategic competition to open conflict, almost certainly over Taiwan.
The narrative of war between the United States and China has woven its way into the world of fiction with books like P.W. Singer and August Cole’s “Ghost Fleet” and Admiral James Stavridis and Elliott Ackerman’s “2034” using the conflict as a plot device. In the case of “Ghost Fleet” the authors successfully captured the zeitgeist and imagination of many within the Pentagon—I’ve lost count the number of times I’ve been asked by officers and enlisted personnel alike if I had read the book. While the world of fiction may seem like an escapist pursuit of harmless thrills, it is an invaluable vehicle through which to consider the practical and philosophical issues of future war, something Major General Mick Ryan does with aplomb in his new book “White Sun War” (a copy of which was kindly provided by the publisher for review).
While some books are character- or plot-driven, “White Sun War” is very much a concept-driven book. This makes Ryan’s entry unique and particularly enjoyable. The plot is well-written, and the characters are interesting. Both are, however, vehicles for the exploration of key concepts and issues that will affect the United States and the West more broadly in future war—not just over Taiwan. The interactions between the characters and the scenes Ryan crafts create opportunities to inform and educate the reader. In the real world it is unlikely a senior officer would spend precious time illuminating their counterparts about the ins-and-outs of additive manufacturing (or 3-D printing) during a crisis. For Ryan and the reader, this encounter is, however, a novel way of considering how this technology could affect future warfare.
“White Sun War” is the distillation of defense debates that have taken place in Washington for the last several years in literary form. At its heart, like all speculative fiction, it is more about the present than the future. Ryan masterfully synthesizes these contentious and complex topics into a coherent narrative that also happens to also be a superbly crafted techno-thriller. It is an ambitious undertaking, but Ryan’s first effort at fiction is an enjoyable success.
The futuristic elements of Ryan’s story are all on the edge of believable, even if they require considerable advancements in the next few years. While improvements in battery technology are consistently being made, the issue is less with the innovation and more the ability of the Department of Defense to ingest these technologies across the services. Artificial intelligence is improving in leaps and bounds, but as Dr. Paul Scharre has written in his book “Four Battlegrounds,” it remains remarkably brittle (being designed for a specific purpose that is not transferable across platforms or requirements), and here again the incorporation of these tools into defense planning remains some way off.
Ryan is far more optimistic than many defense planners, policymakers, and technologists about the state of these innovations. Ryan’s time horizon is 2028, just five years out from the present, but those five years are exceptionally consequential for his narrative. Unfortunately, the world five years from today is likely to look alarmingly familiar.
There is some irony then, that the position of strength the United States and its allies find itself ahead of China’s “Operation Plum Blossom” would be due to decisions made today. Here, the real-world auguries are less than propitious. The furor over the Marine Corps “Force Design 2030,” the sustained absence of demand signals for defense industrial base innovation, the interservice and inter-command rivalries, continued underinvestment in the Navy and Air Force, and the hangover of the long Global War on Terrorism (and more) are conspiring to delay critical decisions and skewing resource prioritization. The problem has been identified (China), but Washington is as far from consensus on the solution as is possible. Efforts are underway, but the fruits of legislation like the CHIPS Act—recently approved legislation to spur American semiconductor manufacturing—and others are some years off, assuming all goes well, which will certainly not be the case.
Ryan paints broad-brush portraits of the belligerents and their national positions. While he largely avoids political commentary, he does veer close on occasion. He certainly does not spare criticism of the defense positions of his home country (Australia) or its potential vulnerabilities to Chinese propaganda and information war. While Ryan captures the strategies and defense policies of the United States and its allies, there is a lingering feeling that there is a touch of mirror-imaging when it comes to China. Beijing’s behaviors and conduct—both politically and militarily—feel eerily close to those that Washington policymakers and think-tankers assume the Central Military Commission leadership holds.
At the operational and tactical level, this is perhaps understandable—the challenges that China’s military forces are likely to face are fiendishly like those of the United States and Taiwan. The challenges of logistics, communications, command and control, and intelligence are, at their core, remarkably consistent across theaters, time periods, and countries. Where the difference lies is in how different armies overcome these obstacles and adapt to these issues. At the strategic- and political-level the absence is noticeable. The Chinese premier spouts the requisite lines about reunification and Taiwan as a renegade province, but they are missing a complexity that is found in other thematic elements of the book. In Ryan’s defense, the strategic and political characterizations of the United States are equally cursory, serving merely to provide context for the conflict and decision-making in Beijing.
“White Sun War” is clearly a book that is focused on, and decidedly more comfortable with, the operational and tactical theaters of war, and that is where its strengths are found. Yet, there are consequential leaps that follow. Ryan is right to disabuse notions that a conflict over Taiwan would be quick and that a long war could well follow. The omission of economic considerations from this story is, however, notable. His expectations that the United States and its allies will be in a far better position in just five years to weather potential supply chain disruptions or politically manage the economic pain are very bullish. Equally, the ability of the United States to sustain its forces over a long period of time, in likely contested waters and airspace, and at distance requires a great deal of investment and effort today in sea and airlift, neither of which are forthcoming.
Ryan’s previous book on military adaptation (“War Transformed,”) and his astute lengthy observations on Twitter very much inform “White Sun War.” The learning nature of military organizations is on display, as is the attention to not just what his characters learn in real-time, but how they disseminate those lessons further afield. His emphasis on a longer-term war, something many did not expect in Ukraine, but which is presently the case, also makes his Taiwan scenario stand apart—many assume the war will be over quickly. For Ryan, this is unlikely to be the case.
In the pursuit of gee-whiz technology, thriller authors often ignore the very real battlefield effects of warfare. Ryan wisely avoids this trap. Those in command reflect the undoubted challenges of leading (and losing) men and women in uniform. For those on the frontlines, the grittiness of war and the simplicity of a hot cup of coffee and tea are clearly conveyed. He does reserve some notable disdain for a civil servant/political advisor in the third act—one wonders who crossed Ryan in the past. His main characters and their interactions serve as opportunities to convey complex operational or doctrinal questions to the lay audience, expounding on the complexities of urban and subterranean warfare, or the political dynamics of the Indo-Pacific.
Ryan’s book would do well to include footnotes, links, or an online accompaniment for readers to reference. This is not a question of his credibility, far from it—the addition of such a reference set would only enhance the reading of his book and set it up for long-term use and re-use. “White Sun War” is exceptionally thorough in laying out concepts, doctrines, and theoretical frameworks that I found myself inevitably looking to my phone or laptop to search for a reference point to save for future reading. Some may argue that footnotes are a distraction, but they would only strengthen Ryan’s narrative and help its utility for professional military education.
“White Sun War” is a first-rate techno-thriller. It is an enjoyable read in and of itself, but its concept-driven narrative is what sets it apart from other books. The characters and their interactions illuminate ongoing debates about the future of war and how a conflict between the United States and China could well play out. Even the structural leaps and assumptions that Ryan makes are illuminating in and of themselves: What would be needed today to achieve the future he outlines? While the goal is certainly to avoid war, it is far better to be intellectually prepared for that possibility and its conduct, and Ryan’s entry is a welcome addition to this discussion.
