he 2025 Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and IMF (often referred to as the fall meetings) kick off October 13 in Washington, D.C. While each of the biannual meetings are relatively formulaic, largely revolving around the same flagship sessions and releases of major reports on global economic health, extreme economic alongside political challenges to these institutions’ very mission make this gathering appear to have quite high stakes.
Context
Before the Spring Meetings back in April, a UNCTAD report warned the world economy was on trajectory to enter recession. Over the course of the year, however, the economy has acted in some unusual ways, showcasing a great deal of volatility—but now sentiment on the global economic outlook is much more mixed. While this seems a positive thing, experts warn that uncertainty has become so pervasive that even indicators used by economists to measure uncertainty no longer reflect one another in a discernible way. That is to say, economists are uncertain about the level of actual uncertainty. Meanwhile, the agendas on the IMF and World Bank dockets may be complicated by political pressure to simplify and streamline their missions, with some indicators of success.
What’s on the agenda
Heading into the 2025 Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the IMF, here’s what to expect:
How healthy is the global economy? The IMF will release its latest World Economic Outlook report, which will show global growth only slightly slowing this year and next—in defiance of expectations. A report recently released by the OECD hails global growth that is more resilient than expected, buoyed by strong performances in the U.S. as well as many emerging markets. The IMF’s Kristalina Georgieva is warning that uncertainty is the new normal, warning of long–term systemic trends suggesting uncertainty will grow rather than recede…and that global economic resilience has not yet been truly tested.
Will global resilience prove resilient to future pressures? Resilience in the global economy has surprised many (but by no means all) economists. The most promising growth of resilience has been in emerging markets, with improved monetary policy frameworks and central banks bolstering independence from fiscal dominance and from U.S. monetary policy. But luck has played its role as well, according to the IMF. Private sector adaptability has supported resilience in the U.S. and elsewhere, while improved policy fundamentals have supported resilience in emerging markets—but fears remain about long–term tariff outcomes…and that supportive financial conditions are currently masking rather than addressing underlying issues.
There is broad agreement on a need for reform, but not what that entails. Some civil society stakeholders are warning that reform of the Bretton Woods institutions has been too incremental, and that without dramatic overhaul, they will not be able to keep up with political and economic pressures. During the BRICS meetings in July, finance ministers of the member states released a joint statement with, for the first time, a unified BRICS position on IMF reforms. Their proposed reforms include ending Western dominance of IMF leadership and adoption of a new guarantee mechanism for lower financing costs in emerging markets through the BRICS’ New Development Bank. The U.S., meanwhile, is expected to continue pressuring the IMF and World Bank to reform in ways that serve their stakeholders, rather than the other way around. Meanwhile, global unions are calling for policies that support sustainable development and human rights, rather than the traditional policy aims supporting fiscal orthodoxy.
What to do about the debt crisis? Late last year the World Bank released a report warning interest payments on foreign debt in developing countries reached a 20–year high, leaving many reliant on the World Bank and similar institutions as economic lifelines. Yet that report covered 2023 data. A new IMF report found that global debt largely stabilized in 2024. A policy paper released this week by the IMF found that legal architecture for resolving sovereign debt held by private sector creditors is largely doing its job, though coordination failures and long restructuring timelines are continuing to create pain points. Context (100 words) (Debt)
What they’re saying
The result (of current economic trends) is exceptionally high uncertainty: globally it has shot up and continues to climb. Buckle up: uncertainty is the new normal and it is here to stay. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director, IMF.
We are at an inflection point for development. On one hand, the familiar challenges of poverty, fragility, conflict, rising debt, and the need to build climate resiliency into all that we do. On the other, a fast-approaching demographic surge in emerging markets—presenting an opportunity for our future. Ajay Banga, President, World Bank Group.
Failure to act (on the debt crisis) will leave 1.8 billion people behind, with consequences for global stability and justice.Fabio Panetta, Governor, Bank of Italy.
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As IMF/WB Fall Meetings convene, uncertainty “the new normal”
Image via Adobe Stock.
October 9, 2025
The IMF and World Bank are set to convene their annual fall meetings. This comes at a time of growing uncertainty, and surprising economic resilience that may or may not be a sign of things to come.
T
he 2025 Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and IMF (often referred to as the fall meetings) kick off October 13 in Washington, D.C. While each of the biannual meetings are relatively formulaic, largely revolving around the same flagship sessions and releases of major reports on global economic health, extreme economic alongside political challenges to these institutions’ very mission make this gathering appear to have quite high stakes.
Context
Before the Spring Meetings back in April, a UNCTAD report warned the world economy was on trajectory to enter recession. Over the course of the year, however, the economy has acted in some unusual ways, showcasing a great deal of volatility—but now sentiment on the global economic outlook is much more mixed. While this seems a positive thing, experts warn that uncertainty has become so pervasive that even indicators used by economists to measure uncertainty no longer reflect one another in a discernible way. That is to say, economists are uncertain about the level of actual uncertainty. Meanwhile, the agendas on the IMF and World Bank dockets may be complicated by political pressure to simplify and streamline their missions, with some indicators of success.
What’s on the agenda
Heading into the 2025 Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the IMF, here’s what to expect:
How healthy is the global economy? The IMF will release its latest World Economic Outlook report, which will show global growth only slightly slowing this year and next—in defiance of expectations. A report recently released by the OECD hails global growth that is more resilient than expected, buoyed by strong performances in the U.S. as well as many emerging markets. The IMF’s Kristalina Georgieva is warning that uncertainty is the new normal, warning of long–term systemic trends suggesting uncertainty will grow rather than recede…and that global economic resilience has not yet been truly tested.
Will global resilience prove resilient to future pressures? Resilience in the global economy has surprised many (but by no means all) economists. The most promising growth of resilience has been in emerging markets, with improved monetary policy frameworks and central banks bolstering independence from fiscal dominance and from U.S. monetary policy. But luck has played its role as well, according to the IMF. Private sector adaptability has supported resilience in the U.S. and elsewhere, while improved policy fundamentals have supported resilience in emerging markets—but fears remain about long–term tariff outcomes…and that supportive financial conditions are currently masking rather than addressing underlying issues.
There is broad agreement on a need for reform, but not what that entails. Some civil society stakeholders are warning that reform of the Bretton Woods institutions has been too incremental, and that without dramatic overhaul, they will not be able to keep up with political and economic pressures. During the BRICS meetings in July, finance ministers of the member states released a joint statement with, for the first time, a unified BRICS position on IMF reforms. Their proposed reforms include ending Western dominance of IMF leadership and adoption of a new guarantee mechanism for lower financing costs in emerging markets through the BRICS’ New Development Bank. The U.S., meanwhile, is expected to continue pressuring the IMF and World Bank to reform in ways that serve their stakeholders, rather than the other way around. Meanwhile, global unions are calling for policies that support sustainable development and human rights, rather than the traditional policy aims supporting fiscal orthodoxy.
What to do about the debt crisis? Late last year the World Bank released a report warning interest payments on foreign debt in developing countries reached a 20–year high, leaving many reliant on the World Bank and similar institutions as economic lifelines. Yet that report covered 2023 data. A new IMF report found that global debt largely stabilized in 2024. A policy paper released this week by the IMF found that legal architecture for resolving sovereign debt held by private sector creditors is largely doing its job, though coordination failures and long restructuring timelines are continuing to create pain points. Context (100 words) (Debt)
What they’re saying
The result (of current economic trends) is exceptionally high uncertainty: globally it has shot up and continues to climb. Buckle up: uncertainty is the new normal and it is here to stay. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director, IMF.
We are at an inflection point for development. On one hand, the familiar challenges of poverty, fragility, conflict, rising debt, and the need to build climate resiliency into all that we do. On the other, a fast-approaching demographic surge in emerging markets—presenting an opportunity for our future. Ajay Banga, President, World Bank Group.
Failure to act (on the debt crisis) will leave 1.8 billion people behind, with consequences for global stability and justice.Fabio Panetta, Governor, Bank of Italy.
