.
Though 54 countries are holding elections of some type in 2016, the United States presidential campaign will assuredly dominate the international political news coverage.  Considering this promises to be among the most unique campaigns in American history, we can expect some unexpected stories to perhaps regularly unfold. A year ago, for example, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders was thought to be only a minor candidate for President: a 74-year old leftwing political gadfly from a small state with little national presence.  Donald Trump, a well-known flamboyant businessman with an unusual hairdo who has taken positions all across the political spectrum throughout his public life, was viewed as little more than a laughable presidential candidate.  After the nation’s first primary in the state of New Hampshire, the gadfly and the joke won their respective nomination events in landslide proportions and people are obviously taking notice. The two have clearly struck political nerves within their respective constituencies, and have caught the public’s attention.  The issues they emphasize will be part of the long-term campaign.  But, do these men having staying power as national candidates?  Not for Sanders, but the Republican picture is clouded. Despite her early campaign woes, former Secretary of State and First Lady Hillary Clinton is still poised to become the Democratic presidential nominee. Once the campaign turns to the southern states at the end of February and beginning of March her strength will become evident. Ms. Clinton is strong within the African American community and among moderate white voters who together dominate southern Democratic primaries.  Coupled with her major advantage among the 1,204 national at-large “Super Delegates” – the special delegate category comprised of public office holders and Democratic Party elected leaders - Ms. Clinton remains the prohibitive favorite to win the party nomination even though she is experiencing some early hiccups. Candidates in both parties win their respective nominations by committing a majority of delegates in floor votes at the national political conventions in July. Because no Republican candidate is currently projected as being close to securing majority support, we may see our first contested Republican political convention since 1940.  Thus, many twists and turns will occur as the candidates endure separate voting events in the 56 different states and US territories.  If no candidate commits the necessary 1,237 delegate votes before the convention, the participants will continue voting through however many roll call floor votes it requires to find a winner. Once the nominees are chosen, what promises to be a brutal general election will transpire.  In the 21st Century, only ten states have switched their votes for President.  Forty states and the District of Columbia have either voted straight Republican or Democratic during the four elections beginning in 2000.  Therefore, the ten states with a history of vote switching will become the major political battleground. To win the 2016 election, Republicans must at least win the states of Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina, and then take three more smaller swing entities from the battleground group.  All Democrats have to do is win 80% of the states President Obama carried twice. The US House could play a role in the presidential election. If no candidate secures a majority 270 Electoral Votes, the House would break the deadlock with each state casting one vote.  This would happen if the Electoral College* ends in a 269-269 tie, which is mathematically possible, or a third candidate such as former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg becomes strong enough to win even a few states, thereby denying either major party candidate a general election majority of Electoral Votes. The Republicans have their largest controlling margin in the House of Representatives since 1928, and such dominance suggests that a tie or deadlock in the national election would go the GOP’s way.  In such a political stalemate, the US Senate would then choose the Vice President.  In neither case are the congressional members bound only to the presidential and vice presidential candidates. They could conceivably go outside the campaign structure and choose someone who has never run. There is so much more to the 2016 presidential election that is not being discussed; yet, the final result could well prove transformational not only to America but the rest of the world.  It is going to be quite a political year.   * The Electoral College is comprised of the 50 states and the District of Columbia, each with an Electoral Vote total.  Such total is the number of US Representatives and Senators each state possesses.  A candidate winning a particular state is awarded all of that place’s Electoral Votes.  270 of the 538 available Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.   Jim Ellis is a veteran national election analyst and president of Ellis Insight, LLC, a firm that provides electoral information to political action committees, associations, and lobbying firms.

About
Jim Ellis
:
The views presented in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the views of any other organization.

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American Politics 2016: The Unexpected

February 16, 2016

Though 54 countries are holding elections of some type in 2016, the United States presidential campaign will assuredly dominate the international political news coverage.  Considering this promises to be among the most unique campaigns in American history, we can expect some unexpected stories to perhaps regularly unfold. A year ago, for example, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders was thought to be only a minor candidate for President: a 74-year old leftwing political gadfly from a small state with little national presence.  Donald Trump, a well-known flamboyant businessman with an unusual hairdo who has taken positions all across the political spectrum throughout his public life, was viewed as little more than a laughable presidential candidate.  After the nation’s first primary in the state of New Hampshire, the gadfly and the joke won their respective nomination events in landslide proportions and people are obviously taking notice. The two have clearly struck political nerves within their respective constituencies, and have caught the public’s attention.  The issues they emphasize will be part of the long-term campaign.  But, do these men having staying power as national candidates?  Not for Sanders, but the Republican picture is clouded. Despite her early campaign woes, former Secretary of State and First Lady Hillary Clinton is still poised to become the Democratic presidential nominee. Once the campaign turns to the southern states at the end of February and beginning of March her strength will become evident. Ms. Clinton is strong within the African American community and among moderate white voters who together dominate southern Democratic primaries.  Coupled with her major advantage among the 1,204 national at-large “Super Delegates” – the special delegate category comprised of public office holders and Democratic Party elected leaders - Ms. Clinton remains the prohibitive favorite to win the party nomination even though she is experiencing some early hiccups. Candidates in both parties win their respective nominations by committing a majority of delegates in floor votes at the national political conventions in July. Because no Republican candidate is currently projected as being close to securing majority support, we may see our first contested Republican political convention since 1940.  Thus, many twists and turns will occur as the candidates endure separate voting events in the 56 different states and US territories.  If no candidate commits the necessary 1,237 delegate votes before the convention, the participants will continue voting through however many roll call floor votes it requires to find a winner. Once the nominees are chosen, what promises to be a brutal general election will transpire.  In the 21st Century, only ten states have switched their votes for President.  Forty states and the District of Columbia have either voted straight Republican or Democratic during the four elections beginning in 2000.  Therefore, the ten states with a history of vote switching will become the major political battleground. To win the 2016 election, Republicans must at least win the states of Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina, and then take three more smaller swing entities from the battleground group.  All Democrats have to do is win 80% of the states President Obama carried twice. The US House could play a role in the presidential election. If no candidate secures a majority 270 Electoral Votes, the House would break the deadlock with each state casting one vote.  This would happen if the Electoral College* ends in a 269-269 tie, which is mathematically possible, or a third candidate such as former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg becomes strong enough to win even a few states, thereby denying either major party candidate a general election majority of Electoral Votes. The Republicans have their largest controlling margin in the House of Representatives since 1928, and such dominance suggests that a tie or deadlock in the national election would go the GOP’s way.  In such a political stalemate, the US Senate would then choose the Vice President.  In neither case are the congressional members bound only to the presidential and vice presidential candidates. They could conceivably go outside the campaign structure and choose someone who has never run. There is so much more to the 2016 presidential election that is not being discussed; yet, the final result could well prove transformational not only to America but the rest of the world.  It is going to be quite a political year.   * The Electoral College is comprised of the 50 states and the District of Columbia, each with an Electoral Vote total.  Such total is the number of US Representatives and Senators each state possesses.  A candidate winning a particular state is awarded all of that place’s Electoral Votes.  270 of the 538 available Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.   Jim Ellis is a veteran national election analyst and president of Ellis Insight, LLC, a firm that provides electoral information to political action committees, associations, and lobbying firms.

About
Jim Ellis
:
The views presented in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the views of any other organization.