On April 5, 2014, 11 million citizens are eligible to vote in Afghanistan’s third presidential election—arguably the country’s most important election since the fall of the Taliban in 2001. One thing is certain: the next elected president will not be current president Hamid Karzai, who is unable to run due to term limits. Karzai won the previous two elections (amidst alleged voting fraud in 2009) after being appointed by the National Assembly in December 2001. The presidential and vice presidential candidates at the forefront include an ophthalmologist, a former World Bank advisor, a former foreign minister, and several ex-jihadi warlords.
The question on everyone’s mind: will this be Afghanistan’s first peaceful democratic transition of political power? Several questions surrounding Karzai’s influence on the election, Taliban meddling, and the freeness and fairness of the vote count still linger. Though the outcome of the election is internationally significant, one scholar poses a question more important than the vote itself: “whether an equitable consensus-building process, consonant with indigenous democratic practices, can loosen the knotted scars of a dozen years of ignored dysfunction.” In the next five to ten years, we will see whether Afghanistan’s democratic system will consolidate and become a (truly) legitimate institution. And the election this week is the first step of many to determine just that.
Presidential Frontrunners
Dr. Abdullah Abdullah
Born in 1960, Dr. Abdullah became an ophthalmologist and later a member of the anti-Soviet resistance force. With a Pashtun father and a Tajik mother, he is the only frontrunner whose identity and power base lies outside Afghanistan’s Pashtun plurality. Dr. Abdullah was Hamid Karzai’s foreign minister, but resigned in 2005; four years later, he mounted a formidable political campaign against president Karzai in the presidential election. He later withdrew during the runoff, citing rampant election fraud. Much of Dr. Abdullah’s popularity among Afghans originates with his close ties (as a high-level advisor) to Ahmad Shah Massoud, the assassinated mujahedeen commander admired for fighting against Soviet forces in the 1980s. Dr. Abdullah supports continued U.S. involvement in counter-terror and security training, stating that it is in the interest of Afghanistan. Due to his non-Pashtun power base, he likely will need to win the first round outright; otherwise, it is expected that ethnic Pashtuns will unite around the remaining Pashtun candidate.
Dr. Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai
Born in 1949, Dr. Ashraf Ghani holds a PhD from Columbia University and worked as an advisor on economic policy at the World Bank. Hailing from an influential Pashtun family, Dr. Ghani served as a special advisor to the UN secretary general’s envoy and was later a finance minister in the Karzai administration. He sought support from northern Uzbek populations by selecting controversial ex-warlord General Rashid Dotsum as his vice presidential running mate. General Dotsum helped U.S. forces topple the Taliban regime in 2001; however, he has been accused of human rights abuses and war crimes along ethnic lines in past decades. This selection represents the coalition building that many candidates have resorted to in competing for votes.
Dr. Zalmai Rassoul
Born in 1942, Dr. Zalmai Rassoul trails Dr. Abdullah and Dr. Ghani in the few presidential polls conducted. However, Dr. Rassoul, a former national security advisor to Hamid Karzai, has the support of the president and remains a formidable contender. President Karzai is thought to support Dr. Rassoul in the election in hopes of having a favorable successor. He is one of the few officials in Karzai’s inner circle to not be stained by corruption charges, though if claims about Karzai’s support are true, he could gain the reputation as a weak executive figure influenced by the former president. In the past month, presidential candidate Qayum Karzai (Hamid Karzai’s brother) withdrew from the race and encouraged his supporters to vote for Dr. Rassoul. An ethnic Pashtun, Dr. Rassoul has been a Persian speaker for most of his life and is unmarried, which is unusual in Afghanistan.
More unusual for an Afghan presidential campaign, Dr. Rassoul’s campaign ticket features a woman vice presidential candidate: Habiba Sarobi, former governor of Bamian Province. Described by The New York Times as “a campaign draw in her own right”, her speeches have become a rallying draw for women’s rights in a country that has seen the issue paid little more than lip service. “A woman for vice president? Eleven years ago, even dreaming about this was impossible,” said Fawzia Koofi, a Member of Parliament in Kabul and Vice President of the National Assembly. At least 300 women are running for provincial council seats around Afghanistan, the highest numbers since the fall of the Taliban.
The Issues
The main issues surrounding Afghanistan’s presidential election include poverty and the ongoing Taliban insurgency—though quibbling over ethnic lines and familial ties are certainly apparent in the campaign rhetoric. Despite progress in overall GDP growth and school enrollment, Afghanistan is plagued by poor economic development. The result is fluctuating prices, chronic unemployment, and increased opium production (now at record levels). Though opium benefits Afghanistan’s poor famers in the short-term, it also fuels corruption in the higher echelons of government and monetarily benefits the Taliban.
Afghanistan’s next president will have to deal with the Taliban (possibly without the aid of international troops), which remains a formidable enemy of the state. If sitting President Karzai does not sign the current bilateral security agreement with the United States, the new president will have to decide whether to keep American forces (about 3,000 to 10,000 troops to conduct counter-terror and training operations). Afghanistan’s economic weakness benefits the Taliban indirectly by prompting the young and chronically unemployed to join the insurgency. The future president must lead the fight against poverty and insurgency while simultaneously navigating tribal politics—many tribal leaders prefer a weak central government in Kabul in favor of maintaining their regional power.
The Election
Afghanistan’s presidential election will operate much like the French system, with two rounds. If a candidate fails to receive more than 50 percent of the vote, a runoff occurs between the top two candidates. With eleven candidates vying for the presidency, a runoff is all but certain, meaning weeks of ballot transport and vote-counting. Each candidate names two running-mates (a first and second vice-president), which often are a tactic to build coalitions among ethnic lines. The final result, due in mid-May, will be monitored by the Independent Election Commission, which has already ousted 16 of the 27 candidates.
Corruption remains a significant issue surrounding the election. An unknown number of fake voter registration cards are in circulation and for sale for about US $5. In tandem with fake registration cards, the use of burkas allow one to circumvent voting procedures due to cultural sensitivities (of strangers seeing a woman’s face) in conservative communities. Security will be mainly provided by Afghanistan’s security forces; however, a small NATO task force currently is assisting through logistical support. The Taliban already has threatened to disrupt the election-day proceedings, which creates a deterrent to voting in certain areas. An apparent uptick in Taliban attacks has already begun, including an attack on a police station on March 20th (killing 18), a hotel attack killing 9 on the same day, and a suicide bombing on March 25th. The most recent event occurred on March 28th, when gunmen wearing burkas attacked Afghanistan’s election commission headquarters from a nearby building housing foreign aid workers in Kabul. Despite the Taliban’s vow to disrupt the election, officials expect a turnout above the 4.6 million that voted in the 2009 election.
Photo: Canada in Afghanistan/Canada en Afghanistan (cc). Photo of Dr. Abdullah Abdullah: New America Foundation (cc). Photo of Dr. Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai: U.S. Embassy Kabul Afghanistan (cc). Photo of Dr. Zalmai Rassoul: U.S. Embassy Kabul Afghanistan (cc).
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Afghanistan's Presidential Election: A Guide
April 3, 2014
On April 5, 2014, 11 million citizens are eligible to vote in Afghanistan’s third presidential election—arguably the country’s most important election since the fall of the Taliban in 2001. One thing is certain: the next elected president will not be current president Hamid Karzai, who is unable to run due to term limits. Karzai won the previous two elections (amidst alleged voting fraud in 2009) after being appointed by the National Assembly in December 2001. The presidential and vice presidential candidates at the forefront include an ophthalmologist, a former World Bank advisor, a former foreign minister, and several ex-jihadi warlords.
The question on everyone’s mind: will this be Afghanistan’s first peaceful democratic transition of political power? Several questions surrounding Karzai’s influence on the election, Taliban meddling, and the freeness and fairness of the vote count still linger. Though the outcome of the election is internationally significant, one scholar poses a question more important than the vote itself: “whether an equitable consensus-building process, consonant with indigenous democratic practices, can loosen the knotted scars of a dozen years of ignored dysfunction.” In the next five to ten years, we will see whether Afghanistan’s democratic system will consolidate and become a (truly) legitimate institution. And the election this week is the first step of many to determine just that.
Presidential Frontrunners
Dr. Abdullah Abdullah
Born in 1960, Dr. Abdullah became an ophthalmologist and later a member of the anti-Soviet resistance force. With a Pashtun father and a Tajik mother, he is the only frontrunner whose identity and power base lies outside Afghanistan’s Pashtun plurality. Dr. Abdullah was Hamid Karzai’s foreign minister, but resigned in 2005; four years later, he mounted a formidable political campaign against president Karzai in the presidential election. He later withdrew during the runoff, citing rampant election fraud. Much of Dr. Abdullah’s popularity among Afghans originates with his close ties (as a high-level advisor) to Ahmad Shah Massoud, the assassinated mujahedeen commander admired for fighting against Soviet forces in the 1980s. Dr. Abdullah supports continued U.S. involvement in counter-terror and security training, stating that it is in the interest of Afghanistan. Due to his non-Pashtun power base, he likely will need to win the first round outright; otherwise, it is expected that ethnic Pashtuns will unite around the remaining Pashtun candidate.
Dr. Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai
Born in 1949, Dr. Ashraf Ghani holds a PhD from Columbia University and worked as an advisor on economic policy at the World Bank. Hailing from an influential Pashtun family, Dr. Ghani served as a special advisor to the UN secretary general’s envoy and was later a finance minister in the Karzai administration. He sought support from northern Uzbek populations by selecting controversial ex-warlord General Rashid Dotsum as his vice presidential running mate. General Dotsum helped U.S. forces topple the Taliban regime in 2001; however, he has been accused of human rights abuses and war crimes along ethnic lines in past decades. This selection represents the coalition building that many candidates have resorted to in competing for votes.
Dr. Zalmai Rassoul
Born in 1942, Dr. Zalmai Rassoul trails Dr. Abdullah and Dr. Ghani in the few presidential polls conducted. However, Dr. Rassoul, a former national security advisor to Hamid Karzai, has the support of the president and remains a formidable contender. President Karzai is thought to support Dr. Rassoul in the election in hopes of having a favorable successor. He is one of the few officials in Karzai’s inner circle to not be stained by corruption charges, though if claims about Karzai’s support are true, he could gain the reputation as a weak executive figure influenced by the former president. In the past month, presidential candidate Qayum Karzai (Hamid Karzai’s brother) withdrew from the race and encouraged his supporters to vote for Dr. Rassoul. An ethnic Pashtun, Dr. Rassoul has been a Persian speaker for most of his life and is unmarried, which is unusual in Afghanistan.
More unusual for an Afghan presidential campaign, Dr. Rassoul’s campaign ticket features a woman vice presidential candidate: Habiba Sarobi, former governor of Bamian Province. Described by The New York Times as “a campaign draw in her own right”, her speeches have become a rallying draw for women’s rights in a country that has seen the issue paid little more than lip service. “A woman for vice president? Eleven years ago, even dreaming about this was impossible,” said Fawzia Koofi, a Member of Parliament in Kabul and Vice President of the National Assembly. At least 300 women are running for provincial council seats around Afghanistan, the highest numbers since the fall of the Taliban.
The Issues
The main issues surrounding Afghanistan’s presidential election include poverty and the ongoing Taliban insurgency—though quibbling over ethnic lines and familial ties are certainly apparent in the campaign rhetoric. Despite progress in overall GDP growth and school enrollment, Afghanistan is plagued by poor economic development. The result is fluctuating prices, chronic unemployment, and increased opium production (now at record levels). Though opium benefits Afghanistan’s poor famers in the short-term, it also fuels corruption in the higher echelons of government and monetarily benefits the Taliban.
Afghanistan’s next president will have to deal with the Taliban (possibly without the aid of international troops), which remains a formidable enemy of the state. If sitting President Karzai does not sign the current bilateral security agreement with the United States, the new president will have to decide whether to keep American forces (about 3,000 to 10,000 troops to conduct counter-terror and training operations). Afghanistan’s economic weakness benefits the Taliban indirectly by prompting the young and chronically unemployed to join the insurgency. The future president must lead the fight against poverty and insurgency while simultaneously navigating tribal politics—many tribal leaders prefer a weak central government in Kabul in favor of maintaining their regional power.
The Election
Afghanistan’s presidential election will operate much like the French system, with two rounds. If a candidate fails to receive more than 50 percent of the vote, a runoff occurs between the top two candidates. With eleven candidates vying for the presidency, a runoff is all but certain, meaning weeks of ballot transport and vote-counting. Each candidate names two running-mates (a first and second vice-president), which often are a tactic to build coalitions among ethnic lines. The final result, due in mid-May, will be monitored by the Independent Election Commission, which has already ousted 16 of the 27 candidates.
Corruption remains a significant issue surrounding the election. An unknown number of fake voter registration cards are in circulation and for sale for about US $5. In tandem with fake registration cards, the use of burkas allow one to circumvent voting procedures due to cultural sensitivities (of strangers seeing a woman’s face) in conservative communities. Security will be mainly provided by Afghanistan’s security forces; however, a small NATO task force currently is assisting through logistical support. The Taliban already has threatened to disrupt the election-day proceedings, which creates a deterrent to voting in certain areas. An apparent uptick in Taliban attacks has already begun, including an attack on a police station on March 20th (killing 18), a hotel attack killing 9 on the same day, and a suicide bombing on March 25th. The most recent event occurred on March 28th, when gunmen wearing burkas attacked Afghanistan’s election commission headquarters from a nearby building housing foreign aid workers in Kabul. Despite the Taliban’s vow to disrupt the election, officials expect a turnout above the 4.6 million that voted in the 2009 election.
Photo: Canada in Afghanistan/Canada en Afghanistan (cc). Photo of Dr. Abdullah Abdullah: New America Foundation (cc). Photo of Dr. Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai: U.S. Embassy Kabul Afghanistan (cc). Photo of Dr. Zalmai Rassoul: U.S. Embassy Kabul Afghanistan (cc).
