his article was compiled from short commentaries submitted by members of World in 2050’s Brain Trust and Senior Fellows cohort. Insights provided by Andrea Bonime–Blanc, Amb. M. Ashraf Haidari, Dr. Tina Managhan, Joshua Huminski, Mohamed Younis, Thomas Garrett, and Thomas Plant.
With more national elections scheduled in 2024 than any year before, we’re experiencing what observers are calling a “super election” year. This comes at a time when democratic institutions are under threat—diminishing trust of global publics and externally, from state and non–state actors seeking to disrupt democratic norms.
With so many threats to democracy and with so many elections taking place, the picture can get very muddled. To help get some clarity on what’s at stake in six impactful elections we turned to our World in 2050 expert network for their insights.
Liberal democracy in crisis?
The institutions and norms of liberal democracy have looked shaky for some time. Can this year’s record number of elections be part of a turnaround?
Thomas Garrett suggests that we should feel guarded optimism about the state of democracy, given that more than half the world’s population will be taking part in elections this year. Another hopeful sign is that—while there have been downturns in various indicators used to assess freedom—political participation, particularly among younger people, is growing. If young people turn out in the numbers expected, they could help overcome attempts to predetermine electoral outcomes in countries with weak democratic institutions.
Dr. Tina Managhan argues we may be expecting too much. There is understandable interest in the outcome of elections in the U.S. and U.K. Yet their controversies may simply be symptoms of the rise of illiberal democracy in these countries. For global publics to regain faith in liberal democracy will require a fundamental shift in which governments—especially the standard bearers of liberal democracy—genuinely and inclusively champion the rule of law and human rights both domestically and elsewhere.
World watches the U.S.
The U.S. election is top of mind for most in the U.S., but other political leaders and global publics are watching as well. The outcome will impact global affairs, one way or another.
According to Thomas Garrett, in addition to young people becoming more civically involved, in the U.S. there is an accompanying and similar trend with persons of color, after historic surges in youth and minority voting during the 2020 U.S. election. These voices could be decisive in the 2024 election.
Mohamed Younis notes that public sentiment supports change in the U.S., with less than 30% of Americans expressing satisfaction with how democracy works in the U.S. Americans are also unhappy about their choices for president, with the majority saying they would prefer not to vote for a candidate 80 or older or a candidate accused of a felony—all coming at a time when public trust in most public institutions is at record lows. How the U.S. navigates this election season could have the greatest global impact of all on elections this year.
For Andrea Bonime–Blanc, the outcome matters because the election’s outcome will signal to allies whether it remains a relatively stable and predictable—and global ally—or descend into illiberal democracy. The U.S.’ example will have a long–lasting influence on the state of democracy elsewhere; an illiberal turn by the U.S. would enable further crises and dysfunction, with the most immediate being in Europe with the Ukraine war and around Taiwan.
Joshua Huminski argues that the U.S. election is not just a bellwether for the health of democracy, though. Of more broad–ranging and perhaps lasting impact is the impact on international perceptions of the U.S.’ role in the world. The rise of populism and isolationism in U.S. politics has already hurt America’s credibility—the outcome of this election could force America’s allies and even adversaries to recalculate their strategic assessments of the U.S. Such an assessment could be the first step to a realignment of the Euro–Atlantic security architecture.
EU Parliament election
The EU remains a standard bearer for liberal democracy and its institutions have been comparatively effective and resilient. The complexion of the EU Parliament will inform how smoothly those institutions run in the coming years.
Andrea Bonime–Blanc notes that the EU has had a heretofore largely unified approach to Ukraine, immigration, AI, sustainability, technology, and other issues. In this election there is an opportunity for more populist and isolationist voices to enter the EU Parliament, potentially destabilizing that previously unified approach.
Thomas Plant believes the outcome of the EU Parliament elections may act as a litmus test for how the world responds to technological advancements amid rising populism. Discussions about AI are ongoing after last December’s EU AI Act. If politicians mishandle discussions about the new regulations—inadvertently or strategically—it could fuel populist narratives that would inhibit governments’ ability to regulate AI, as well as fostering skepticism toward existing and secure systems like digital voting, renewable energy, or medical technologies.
Pakistan election
Pakistan’s election in early February made a splash, with the opposition making gains and the final outcome unclear even amid powerful critiques of electoral honesty.
In Pakistan, most citizens think their elections are not honest. Mohamed Younis says that makes Pakistan’s recent election results notable as the opposition—who have been vocal in criticizing Pakistan’s election process—won considerable support. While the final outcome remains unclear at the time of writing, it’s notable that during a time when the health and future of democracy is in question, a nation with relatively poor marks on trust in the electoral process can deliver such a clear and potent outcome.
Ambassador M. Ashraf Haidari reminds that Pakistan is a nuclear state undergoing an economic crisis, in which a majority of the population consists of youth. There is considerable opportunity for unrest that could further destabilize the country, and the role of Pakistan’s military in shaping both politics and policy has further undermined social stability. Opposition to the government believe the elections were rigged against them, raising tensions still further. If Pakistani politicians fail to rapidly form a functioning government and address mounting political, security, and economic challenges the impact on Pakistan and regional wellbeing will be severe.
Keep an eye on
Two large democracies in Asia are also going to the polls and could act as a bellwether for their regions.
Andrea Bonime–Blanc believes the elections in Indonesia and India are also extremely important. Indonesia has the largest stable democracy with a predominantly Muslim population—their elections will help set the tone for democracy in Southeast Asia. In India, as the largest democracy in the world and a country that is becoming a global economic superstar, the key question is whether the rising Hindu religious nationalism that PM Modi supports will affect the quality of democracy there.
Mohamed Younis projects that President Bukele’s overwhelming victory in the El Salvador election in early February could have major regional impacts. Bukele’s focus on crime and public safety buoyed him in polls, and Gallup data on public safety across Central America highlight a shift to safer sentiments in Salvador that aren't enjoyed in neighboring nations. Bukele’s policies have been criticized, but a desire for public safety in the region could see his approach grow.
a global affairs media network
Making sense of the “super election” year
February 29, 2024
There are a record number of elections taking place in the world this year. Members of our expert network share their insights on what this election year means for democracy more broadly, and what’s at stake in six elections in particular.
T
his article was compiled from short commentaries submitted by members of World in 2050’s Brain Trust and Senior Fellows cohort. Insights provided by Andrea Bonime–Blanc, Amb. M. Ashraf Haidari, Dr. Tina Managhan, Joshua Huminski, Mohamed Younis, Thomas Garrett, and Thomas Plant.
With more national elections scheduled in 2024 than any year before, we’re experiencing what observers are calling a “super election” year. This comes at a time when democratic institutions are under threat—diminishing trust of global publics and externally, from state and non–state actors seeking to disrupt democratic norms.
With so many threats to democracy and with so many elections taking place, the picture can get very muddled. To help get some clarity on what’s at stake in six impactful elections we turned to our World in 2050 expert network for their insights.
Liberal democracy in crisis?
The institutions and norms of liberal democracy have looked shaky for some time. Can this year’s record number of elections be part of a turnaround?
Thomas Garrett suggests that we should feel guarded optimism about the state of democracy, given that more than half the world’s population will be taking part in elections this year. Another hopeful sign is that—while there have been downturns in various indicators used to assess freedom—political participation, particularly among younger people, is growing. If young people turn out in the numbers expected, they could help overcome attempts to predetermine electoral outcomes in countries with weak democratic institutions.
Dr. Tina Managhan argues we may be expecting too much. There is understandable interest in the outcome of elections in the U.S. and U.K. Yet their controversies may simply be symptoms of the rise of illiberal democracy in these countries. For global publics to regain faith in liberal democracy will require a fundamental shift in which governments—especially the standard bearers of liberal democracy—genuinely and inclusively champion the rule of law and human rights both domestically and elsewhere.
World watches the U.S.
The U.S. election is top of mind for most in the U.S., but other political leaders and global publics are watching as well. The outcome will impact global affairs, one way or another.
According to Thomas Garrett, in addition to young people becoming more civically involved, in the U.S. there is an accompanying and similar trend with persons of color, after historic surges in youth and minority voting during the 2020 U.S. election. These voices could be decisive in the 2024 election.
Mohamed Younis notes that public sentiment supports change in the U.S., with less than 30% of Americans expressing satisfaction with how democracy works in the U.S. Americans are also unhappy about their choices for president, with the majority saying they would prefer not to vote for a candidate 80 or older or a candidate accused of a felony—all coming at a time when public trust in most public institutions is at record lows. How the U.S. navigates this election season could have the greatest global impact of all on elections this year.
For Andrea Bonime–Blanc, the outcome matters because the election’s outcome will signal to allies whether it remains a relatively stable and predictable—and global ally—or descend into illiberal democracy. The U.S.’ example will have a long–lasting influence on the state of democracy elsewhere; an illiberal turn by the U.S. would enable further crises and dysfunction, with the most immediate being in Europe with the Ukraine war and around Taiwan.
Joshua Huminski argues that the U.S. election is not just a bellwether for the health of democracy, though. Of more broad–ranging and perhaps lasting impact is the impact on international perceptions of the U.S.’ role in the world. The rise of populism and isolationism in U.S. politics has already hurt America’s credibility—the outcome of this election could force America’s allies and even adversaries to recalculate their strategic assessments of the U.S. Such an assessment could be the first step to a realignment of the Euro–Atlantic security architecture.
EU Parliament election
The EU remains a standard bearer for liberal democracy and its institutions have been comparatively effective and resilient. The complexion of the EU Parliament will inform how smoothly those institutions run in the coming years.
Andrea Bonime–Blanc notes that the EU has had a heretofore largely unified approach to Ukraine, immigration, AI, sustainability, technology, and other issues. In this election there is an opportunity for more populist and isolationist voices to enter the EU Parliament, potentially destabilizing that previously unified approach.
Thomas Plant believes the outcome of the EU Parliament elections may act as a litmus test for how the world responds to technological advancements amid rising populism. Discussions about AI are ongoing after last December’s EU AI Act. If politicians mishandle discussions about the new regulations—inadvertently or strategically—it could fuel populist narratives that would inhibit governments’ ability to regulate AI, as well as fostering skepticism toward existing and secure systems like digital voting, renewable energy, or medical technologies.
Pakistan election
Pakistan’s election in early February made a splash, with the opposition making gains and the final outcome unclear even amid powerful critiques of electoral honesty.
In Pakistan, most citizens think their elections are not honest. Mohamed Younis says that makes Pakistan’s recent election results notable as the opposition—who have been vocal in criticizing Pakistan’s election process—won considerable support. While the final outcome remains unclear at the time of writing, it’s notable that during a time when the health and future of democracy is in question, a nation with relatively poor marks on trust in the electoral process can deliver such a clear and potent outcome.
Ambassador M. Ashraf Haidari reminds that Pakistan is a nuclear state undergoing an economic crisis, in which a majority of the population consists of youth. There is considerable opportunity for unrest that could further destabilize the country, and the role of Pakistan’s military in shaping both politics and policy has further undermined social stability. Opposition to the government believe the elections were rigged against them, raising tensions still further. If Pakistani politicians fail to rapidly form a functioning government and address mounting political, security, and economic challenges the impact on Pakistan and regional wellbeing will be severe.
Keep an eye on
Two large democracies in Asia are also going to the polls and could act as a bellwether for their regions.
Andrea Bonime–Blanc believes the elections in Indonesia and India are also extremely important. Indonesia has the largest stable democracy with a predominantly Muslim population—their elections will help set the tone for democracy in Southeast Asia. In India, as the largest democracy in the world and a country that is becoming a global economic superstar, the key question is whether the rising Hindu religious nationalism that PM Modi supports will affect the quality of democracy there.
Mohamed Younis projects that President Bukele’s overwhelming victory in the El Salvador election in early February could have major regional impacts. Bukele’s focus on crime and public safety buoyed him in polls, and Gallup data on public safety across Central America highlight a shift to safer sentiments in Salvador that aren't enjoyed in neighboring nations. Bukele’s policies have been criticized, but a desire for public safety in the region could see his approach grow.
