he Plague,” an oft-quoted book by Albert Camus, portrays the epidemic city of Oran as a place where truth and fiction are indistinguishable, the government cannot coordinate an effective response, and no one knows what tomorrow will bring. While we are not quite certain about what specific changes are barreling toward us, historians universally agree that nothing creates more widespread and lasting change than epidemics. Here are some of the potential changes across society, culture, business, and power politics that will impact our lives in very significant ways.
Short-Term Priorities vs. Strategic Planning
As the COVID-19 virus infects more people around the world, it threatens to further exacerbate inequality and drop millions more into poverty, according to the World Bank. This creates enormous pressure on government stability, health care delivery systems, educational demands, and social safety nets.
In the short term, rather than concentrating on new infrastructure or economic reform initiatives, political leaders are forced to spend their time on limiting direct loss of life and quick economic recovery packages. As growing numbers of countries experience COVID-19 death and displacement along the lines of Italy and Spain, compelling factors such as pandemics and recessions could alter the national dialogue toward political changes requiring more expensive government programs and expanded safety net coverage. This might result in even louder and bolder pressure groups battling it out from the far right and left fringes.
Climate Change
The climate change debate will also be radically altered by the COVID-19 economic coma. We have now lived through an extended period of grounded planes, shuttered factories, and a disappearing carbon footprint. Now, a vigorous policy fight might take place to see how we can learn lessons from this period and apply them to future business and government action. World philanthropic foundations are likely to fund larger programs addressing climate solutions with coalitions and private-public partnerships are more prevalent.
Just as societies have been moving toward higher density in cities (for energy and efficiency reasons), now we are told this type of high density dangerously conflicts with transmission and infection of contagious disease. With the prospect of several pandemics impacting us in the decades ahead, resolving this apparent conflict between climate and pandemics is tricky. Governments will need to increase their abilities to advocate for pragmatic solutions and develop younger leaders to reach achievable goals, thus preserving the planet and protecting people from viruses. These proposals will likely emanate from states, governors, mayors, CEOs and locally-based leadership, not multilateral agreements—projecting globally yet practicing locally is the key to this success.
Government and Business Philosophies
The influence and scope of government is evolving toward a much bigger role in Western societies as we come out of this crisis. In America, the middle class has been ravaged by globalization, the Great Recession of 2008-2009 and now COVID-19’s record unemployment numbers. Senator Bernie Sanders will not be on the ballot, but many of his initial ideas and programs may be more palatable to some voters. While it will be framed as socialism vs. capitalism in election propaganda, it is more likely to translate to louder calls for specifically reforming capitalism, as the Progressive movement did with Theodore Roosevelt as president.
International trade has changed society through globalization and it will continue to be a controversial and divisive issue moving forward. Business will shift away from “just in time” global supply chains or those solely based in Asia. These old business philosophies lacked resilience and relied on free trade across borders. De-globalization will continue. Populism and nationalism will remain and businesses will need to reorient their philosophy and relocate their supply chains accordingly. CEOs have room and possibilities to propose initiatives in many areas for economic and education innovations.
Society has been moving toward deeper and more toxic divisions, and more angry and impatient citizens. Trade wars, Brexit, and anti-immigration waves do not appear to be going away anytime soon. While viruses have no borders, and thrive on poor global coordination, there is an opportunity for us to learn one lesson about the shared theme of us all being in this together (even if it’s restricted) to climate change and/or pandemic issues. Sometimes, global cooperation and coordination can make all our individual lives safer, better and healthier.
Code War
The Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union is long gone, now replaced by a Code War between the United States and China. There are new red lines defining national security. Both are battling intensely over technology, artificial intelligence, cyber security, precious earth materials and propaganda skirmishes. Currently, it’s China blaming America for the virus spreading globally and simultaneously claiming credit for sending medical supplies to Japan, Iran and Spain. China is staking claim to be the world leader now. The balance for geopolitical power will continue, not so much in direct combat but certainly in fierce competition for cutting edge technology, data and information, resilient supply chains, reliable trade partners and loyal coalition builders. Disinformation, psychological warfare and cyber-attacks will increase as virulent weapons and both countries wage global battles to win the 21st century’s definition of the hearts and minds (cryptocurrency and commercial information) of the world.
Attitudes and lifestyles will be altered and changed fundamentally by this epic shift from work to home. It’s been enforced by a government mandated lockdown, not telecommuting by convenience. Words like “social distancing” and “flattening the curve” are not just understood by many Americans, but actually practiced by them. According to surveys (YouGov-Graeme Bruce) 20% of Americans who drink alcohol said they would now drink more than usual during the pandemic Understanding and anticipating what brands will benefit from post-pandemic lifestyles will be key. The trend toward a cashless society will only accelerate, fueled by online shopping. We might experience a push back from the enforced societal isolation and toward a new phase of partial rehabilitation of some creative brick and mortar options as people seek out safe but meaningful interaction.
Black Swan events, world wars and medical innovations have dramatically led to radical changes in many regions around the globe. Pandemics always lead to quick and sometimes unexpected transformational change across all of society worldwide. The more we can peer ahead, proactively understand and analyze emerging trends in these pandemics, the more likely we are to help our businesses, political leaders and civil institutions tackle crucial issues and create space for solutions in the next decade.
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Pandemics, Black Swans, and Predictions
April 20, 2020
"T
he Plague,” an oft-quoted book by Albert Camus, portrays the epidemic city of Oran as a place where truth and fiction are indistinguishable, the government cannot coordinate an effective response, and no one knows what tomorrow will bring. While we are not quite certain about what specific changes are barreling toward us, historians universally agree that nothing creates more widespread and lasting change than epidemics. Here are some of the potential changes across society, culture, business, and power politics that will impact our lives in very significant ways.
Short-Term Priorities vs. Strategic Planning
As the COVID-19 virus infects more people around the world, it threatens to further exacerbate inequality and drop millions more into poverty, according to the World Bank. This creates enormous pressure on government stability, health care delivery systems, educational demands, and social safety nets.
In the short term, rather than concentrating on new infrastructure or economic reform initiatives, political leaders are forced to spend their time on limiting direct loss of life and quick economic recovery packages. As growing numbers of countries experience COVID-19 death and displacement along the lines of Italy and Spain, compelling factors such as pandemics and recessions could alter the national dialogue toward political changes requiring more expensive government programs and expanded safety net coverage. This might result in even louder and bolder pressure groups battling it out from the far right and left fringes.
Climate Change
The climate change debate will also be radically altered by the COVID-19 economic coma. We have now lived through an extended period of grounded planes, shuttered factories, and a disappearing carbon footprint. Now, a vigorous policy fight might take place to see how we can learn lessons from this period and apply them to future business and government action. World philanthropic foundations are likely to fund larger programs addressing climate solutions with coalitions and private-public partnerships are more prevalent.
Just as societies have been moving toward higher density in cities (for energy and efficiency reasons), now we are told this type of high density dangerously conflicts with transmission and infection of contagious disease. With the prospect of several pandemics impacting us in the decades ahead, resolving this apparent conflict between climate and pandemics is tricky. Governments will need to increase their abilities to advocate for pragmatic solutions and develop younger leaders to reach achievable goals, thus preserving the planet and protecting people from viruses. These proposals will likely emanate from states, governors, mayors, CEOs and locally-based leadership, not multilateral agreements—projecting globally yet practicing locally is the key to this success.
Government and Business Philosophies
The influence and scope of government is evolving toward a much bigger role in Western societies as we come out of this crisis. In America, the middle class has been ravaged by globalization, the Great Recession of 2008-2009 and now COVID-19’s record unemployment numbers. Senator Bernie Sanders will not be on the ballot, but many of his initial ideas and programs may be more palatable to some voters. While it will be framed as socialism vs. capitalism in election propaganda, it is more likely to translate to louder calls for specifically reforming capitalism, as the Progressive movement did with Theodore Roosevelt as president.
International trade has changed society through globalization and it will continue to be a controversial and divisive issue moving forward. Business will shift away from “just in time” global supply chains or those solely based in Asia. These old business philosophies lacked resilience and relied on free trade across borders. De-globalization will continue. Populism and nationalism will remain and businesses will need to reorient their philosophy and relocate their supply chains accordingly. CEOs have room and possibilities to propose initiatives in many areas for economic and education innovations.
Society has been moving toward deeper and more toxic divisions, and more angry and impatient citizens. Trade wars, Brexit, and anti-immigration waves do not appear to be going away anytime soon. While viruses have no borders, and thrive on poor global coordination, there is an opportunity for us to learn one lesson about the shared theme of us all being in this together (even if it’s restricted) to climate change and/or pandemic issues. Sometimes, global cooperation and coordination can make all our individual lives safer, better and healthier.
Code War
The Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union is long gone, now replaced by a Code War between the United States and China. There are new red lines defining national security. Both are battling intensely over technology, artificial intelligence, cyber security, precious earth materials and propaganda skirmishes. Currently, it’s China blaming America for the virus spreading globally and simultaneously claiming credit for sending medical supplies to Japan, Iran and Spain. China is staking claim to be the world leader now. The balance for geopolitical power will continue, not so much in direct combat but certainly in fierce competition for cutting edge technology, data and information, resilient supply chains, reliable trade partners and loyal coalition builders. Disinformation, psychological warfare and cyber-attacks will increase as virulent weapons and both countries wage global battles to win the 21st century’s definition of the hearts and minds (cryptocurrency and commercial information) of the world.
Attitudes and lifestyles will be altered and changed fundamentally by this epic shift from work to home. It’s been enforced by a government mandated lockdown, not telecommuting by convenience. Words like “social distancing” and “flattening the curve” are not just understood by many Americans, but actually practiced by them. According to surveys (YouGov-Graeme Bruce) 20% of Americans who drink alcohol said they would now drink more than usual during the pandemic Understanding and anticipating what brands will benefit from post-pandemic lifestyles will be key. The trend toward a cashless society will only accelerate, fueled by online shopping. We might experience a push back from the enforced societal isolation and toward a new phase of partial rehabilitation of some creative brick and mortar options as people seek out safe but meaningful interaction.
Black Swan events, world wars and medical innovations have dramatically led to radical changes in many regions around the globe. Pandemics always lead to quick and sometimes unexpected transformational change across all of society worldwide. The more we can peer ahead, proactively understand and analyze emerging trends in these pandemics, the more likely we are to help our businesses, political leaders and civil institutions tackle crucial issues and create space for solutions in the next decade.
