.
M

ost of the world has for some time felt that the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad needs to go. The West in particular has been pushing for regime change through sanctions and denying waivers. 

With the onset of the humanitarian crisis caused by the recent earthquakes, there seems to be a reopening of communication channels with the Syrian government.

The dual earthquake of similar magnitudes of 7.8 struck Turkey and northwest Syria with devastating consequences. So far, the death toll is surpassing 41,000 killed by the pitiless natural disaster that has ravaged entire neighborhoods.

Although world leaders were quick to convey their condolences and dispatch assistance to help both countries, it’s been slower when it comes to aiding the Syrian side. This is because Western governments have tried to maintain their political marginalization of the al-Assad government throughout the aid process. 

Countries in the region, meanwhile, chose to overlook the political complications and decided to send assistance in coordination with the Syrian government, notably through Aleppo’s airport. Gulf and Arab countries have mainly aligned themselves with the Syrian opposition during the Syrian war, but have decided to efficiently send relief to the victims; proving to be far more successful than the international community. 

This overture to the Assad government could potentially pave the way to a thawing of relations.

The Slow Process of Sending Aid to Syria

Syria is fractured and has been deeply divided for 12 years. Assad has regained control of most of the country. However, Turkey-backed opposition groups still retain northwest Syria. The U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led forces retain control of northeast Syria. 

This mosaic map of foreign influence and control undermines Syrian sovereignty and makes it difficult to deliver aid to those areas. The process of redirecting aid through disparate channels has hindered timely delivery. 

Delivering aid through Syria’s internal front lines was also hindered as opposition groups from northeast and northwest Syria—who have been enemies throughout the conflict—couldn’t agree on a process. Because of this, an aid convoy was unable to reach its destination. Both sides traded blame, but the salient point remains; people who needed aid went without. 

Regional Aid Responses More Nimble

While it’s easy to focus on the shortcomings of the international community, countries in the region have been far more responsive. 

A week after the dual earthquake that shook the region, Arab countries continue providing vital support to the victims with official visits, donations, rescue teams, medical equipment, and relief supplies.

According to its Twitter account, The King Salman Humanitarian Aid & Relief Centre sent a dozen of Saudi planes, some of them to the Syrian government-controlled Aleppo airport.  

Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Jordan have established aid routes—mostly by air—carrying tons of food, first aid provisions, tents, medical equipment, and other basic necessities.

Aid Engagement Has Political Ramifications

As Syria’s neighbors send aid to help Syrian victims of the earthquakes, they are also reengaging with the al-Assad regime, after shunning him for years. This process is slow, but there is a tangible sense of rapprochement. 

The UAE was the first to spearhead these efforts; in November 2011 Syria and the UAE signed a deal to build a solar power station. In March 2022, Assad was welcomed in Abu Dhabi; this was the first trip to an Arab country in 11 years, since the Syrian civil war.

In March 2021, Syrian tourism minister Mohammad Rami Martini attended a conference in Riyadh. It was the first public visit by a Syrian official to the Kingdom since the war.  

This year, Moscow sponsored and promoted talks between Syria and Turkey. 

On Feb. 7, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi called Assad in the first official exchange between the two leaders. Sisi offered his country’s support following the devastating earthquakes.

On Feb. 8, a Lebanese delegation headed by the Minister of Foreign Affairs visited Damascus. Lebanon has never truly severed ties with the Syrian government, but lately, has been more active in officially relaunching the relationship, particularly when it comes to the refugees file in Lebanon.

On Feb. 9, Tunisian President Kais Saied announced wanting to strengthen diplomatic ties with Syria, according to Reuters. This step is the first public statement indicating a full restoration of Tunisian-Syrian relations. Tunisia sent aid planes with rescue and civil protection teams to Aleppo airport.  

The UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed recently met with Assad in Damascus following the earthquakes.

Following these obvious moves by Arab leaders, al-Assad announced on Feb 13, the opening of two more crossing points between Turkey and northwest Syria: Bab al-Salam and al-Rai, for 3 months.

Looking Ahead

Although the League of Arab States suspended Syria’s membership in 2011; calls for its return were spearheaded by Egypt and supported by Algeria, Lebanon, Iraq, and the Sultanate of Oman. The support was further reinforced, by countries that have already begun some sort of normalization with the al-Assad government: the UAE, Jordan, and Bahrain which have reopened embassies in Damascus; the Sultanate of Oman reinstated its ambassador.

Al-Assad gave a speech on Feb. 16 which was broadcasted by a few Arab outlets in further proof that the shift is closer than ever today. Some of these platforms are owned or closely affiliated to Gulf governments in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon.

Damascus is scheduled to host an Arab energy conference in 2024. The decision was made upon the agreement of all members of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) - Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and the UAE -during a virtual meeting of the members’ oil ministers hosted by Kuwait.  

There are further signs that relations are warming. The AP reported on Sunday that senior lawmakers from 9 Arab countries were in Syria meeting with Assad with the aim to bring the country back into regional affairs. The visit comes after a meeting in Baghdad that affirmed the Arab League’s intentions of having Syria return to its seat. Further, Reuters reports that Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Showery was scheduled to visit Syria on Feburary 27 in what would be the first official visit since the Syrian war started in 2011.

About
Marita Kassis
:
Marita Kassis is a communications specialist and geopolitical analyst focusing on business, the Middle East, security and counterterrorism.
The views presented in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the views of any other organization.

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www.diplomaticourier.com

Earthquakes Could Create New Regional Political Equations

From a gathering in Munich, Germany, in support of victims of the earthquakes in Syria and Turkey. Photo by Nk Ni on Unsplash

February 28, 2023

Western aid has been slow to flow to Syria after the recent earthquakes, but regional governments have stepped up despite long-standing tensions with the al-Assad regime. This could herald a shift in the regional political equation, writes Marita Kassis.

M

ost of the world has for some time felt that the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad needs to go. The West in particular has been pushing for regime change through sanctions and denying waivers. 

With the onset of the humanitarian crisis caused by the recent earthquakes, there seems to be a reopening of communication channels with the Syrian government.

The dual earthquake of similar magnitudes of 7.8 struck Turkey and northwest Syria with devastating consequences. So far, the death toll is surpassing 41,000 killed by the pitiless natural disaster that has ravaged entire neighborhoods.

Although world leaders were quick to convey their condolences and dispatch assistance to help both countries, it’s been slower when it comes to aiding the Syrian side. This is because Western governments have tried to maintain their political marginalization of the al-Assad government throughout the aid process. 

Countries in the region, meanwhile, chose to overlook the political complications and decided to send assistance in coordination with the Syrian government, notably through Aleppo’s airport. Gulf and Arab countries have mainly aligned themselves with the Syrian opposition during the Syrian war, but have decided to efficiently send relief to the victims; proving to be far more successful than the international community. 

This overture to the Assad government could potentially pave the way to a thawing of relations.

The Slow Process of Sending Aid to Syria

Syria is fractured and has been deeply divided for 12 years. Assad has regained control of most of the country. However, Turkey-backed opposition groups still retain northwest Syria. The U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led forces retain control of northeast Syria. 

This mosaic map of foreign influence and control undermines Syrian sovereignty and makes it difficult to deliver aid to those areas. The process of redirecting aid through disparate channels has hindered timely delivery. 

Delivering aid through Syria’s internal front lines was also hindered as opposition groups from northeast and northwest Syria—who have been enemies throughout the conflict—couldn’t agree on a process. Because of this, an aid convoy was unable to reach its destination. Both sides traded blame, but the salient point remains; people who needed aid went without. 

Regional Aid Responses More Nimble

While it’s easy to focus on the shortcomings of the international community, countries in the region have been far more responsive. 

A week after the dual earthquake that shook the region, Arab countries continue providing vital support to the victims with official visits, donations, rescue teams, medical equipment, and relief supplies.

According to its Twitter account, The King Salman Humanitarian Aid & Relief Centre sent a dozen of Saudi planes, some of them to the Syrian government-controlled Aleppo airport.  

Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Jordan have established aid routes—mostly by air—carrying tons of food, first aid provisions, tents, medical equipment, and other basic necessities.

Aid Engagement Has Political Ramifications

As Syria’s neighbors send aid to help Syrian victims of the earthquakes, they are also reengaging with the al-Assad regime, after shunning him for years. This process is slow, but there is a tangible sense of rapprochement. 

The UAE was the first to spearhead these efforts; in November 2011 Syria and the UAE signed a deal to build a solar power station. In March 2022, Assad was welcomed in Abu Dhabi; this was the first trip to an Arab country in 11 years, since the Syrian civil war.

In March 2021, Syrian tourism minister Mohammad Rami Martini attended a conference in Riyadh. It was the first public visit by a Syrian official to the Kingdom since the war.  

This year, Moscow sponsored and promoted talks between Syria and Turkey. 

On Feb. 7, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi called Assad in the first official exchange between the two leaders. Sisi offered his country’s support following the devastating earthquakes.

On Feb. 8, a Lebanese delegation headed by the Minister of Foreign Affairs visited Damascus. Lebanon has never truly severed ties with the Syrian government, but lately, has been more active in officially relaunching the relationship, particularly when it comes to the refugees file in Lebanon.

On Feb. 9, Tunisian President Kais Saied announced wanting to strengthen diplomatic ties with Syria, according to Reuters. This step is the first public statement indicating a full restoration of Tunisian-Syrian relations. Tunisia sent aid planes with rescue and civil protection teams to Aleppo airport.  

The UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed recently met with Assad in Damascus following the earthquakes.

Following these obvious moves by Arab leaders, al-Assad announced on Feb 13, the opening of two more crossing points between Turkey and northwest Syria: Bab al-Salam and al-Rai, for 3 months.

Looking Ahead

Although the League of Arab States suspended Syria’s membership in 2011; calls for its return were spearheaded by Egypt and supported by Algeria, Lebanon, Iraq, and the Sultanate of Oman. The support was further reinforced, by countries that have already begun some sort of normalization with the al-Assad government: the UAE, Jordan, and Bahrain which have reopened embassies in Damascus; the Sultanate of Oman reinstated its ambassador.

Al-Assad gave a speech on Feb. 16 which was broadcasted by a few Arab outlets in further proof that the shift is closer than ever today. Some of these platforms are owned or closely affiliated to Gulf governments in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon.

Damascus is scheduled to host an Arab energy conference in 2024. The decision was made upon the agreement of all members of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) - Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and the UAE -during a virtual meeting of the members’ oil ministers hosted by Kuwait.  

There are further signs that relations are warming. The AP reported on Sunday that senior lawmakers from 9 Arab countries were in Syria meeting with Assad with the aim to bring the country back into regional affairs. The visit comes after a meeting in Baghdad that affirmed the Arab League’s intentions of having Syria return to its seat. Further, Reuters reports that Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Showery was scheduled to visit Syria on Feburary 27 in what would be the first official visit since the Syrian war started in 2011.

About
Marita Kassis
:
Marita Kassis is a communications specialist and geopolitical analyst focusing on business, the Middle East, security and counterterrorism.
The views presented in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the views of any other organization.