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Diplomatic Courier :: Diplomatic Community on World Affairs and Foreign Policy News

The Make-or-Break Year for the EU in the Arctic

Although the Arctic remains an unfamiliar area—almost a terra incognita to many southerners—it is on track to come to the forefront of world politics. In this context, it seems that, while everyone in Brussels is perfused with news streams from the Middle East, Africa, or Ukraine, the EU is starting to lag behind other non-Arctic competitors such as China, South Korea, or Japan, in the race for Arctic influence; the one geographical area that may truly rule Northern hemisphere geostrategic dynamics in the 21st century.

How to Improve Civic Engagement in Europe

Since its first elections in 1979, the European Parliament has seen a gradual decrease in voter turnout. The results of polls from May 22 to 25 showed the second lowest civic engagement of its history, only 43.09 percent. This is a serious issue, taking into account the competencies of the Parliament such as electing the President of the EU Commission, approving laws, budgets, and treaties. In addition, many right wing parties were elected for the Parliament. For instance, in France, the National Front (FN), led by Marine Le Pen, received 24.8 percent of the vote to become the country’s largest party in the European Parliament (24 out of 75 French members of the European Parliament). Her party is known for its willingness to reduce the powers of EU. Thus, the labeled “Europtimists” will have to work together to balance the new “Eurosceptics”.

From Russia With No Love

In Zbigniew Brzezinski’s Strategic Vision, he describes the nature of Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy: “a backward-looking combination of assertive nationalism, thinly veiled hostility toward America for its victory in the Cold War, and nostalgia for both modernity and superpower status.”

Curbing the Flight of Human Capital

Spain, in the first decade of the new millennium, was the land of opportunity for many Latin Americans. At one point during the early 2000s, Spain was considered one of the top ten largest economies of the world, thus it became a logical and hopeful alternative for Spanish-speaking workers throughout the Americas. Droves of people immigrated from Ecuador, Colombia, and Venezuela. For many, the dream did become a reality, and Spain was basking in its novel place of economic stability and might. But the construction boom in Spain popped in 2008 to 2009, bringing Spanish banks to their knees and spurring a deep recession that is to this date still dragging the Spanish economy to subzero growth.

Ukraine’s Revolution of Dignity

The sudden change of mind on the European Association by Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovych in late November had unexpected and devastating impacts on his administration. Instead of the usual rallies in the thousands, which the government expected, the protests against his decision grew to hundreds of thousands of people—in some cases, over a million people attended. The government took an arrogant stand of ignoring and trying to suppress the protests, but this made things even worse for Yanukovych. The festive celebration of the European future of the country turned into politically charged movement after police brutality against the small pro-European student's camp at the center of Kyiv 4 AM on November 30th. Similarly brutal suppression of the fairly meaningless protest in Belarus in December 2010 made the country freeze in fear, and the following Western sanctions forced Lukashenko into a close alliance with Russia. It was different in Ukraine.

Ukraine at a Divergence Point

The negotiations of the Partnership Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union started in 2007, was re-defined as the Association Agreement in September 2008, and was practically ready for signing by the end of 2009. Following the election of Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovych, the process slowed down, and since 2011 the issue has gradually become a hot contest between Russia and the West. Finally, in a dramatic eleventh hour move, Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov suspended the preparation for signing of the Agreement on November 22nd, demanding outrageous financial aid from the European Union.

Georgia: Elections Mark the End of the Saakashvili Era

The October 27th Georgian presidential elections will mark the end of the Mikheil Saakashvili era in the country. Georgia’s territory is slightly smaller than Ireland, with a population of 4.5million; it was among the smallest republics of the former USSR. Nevertheless, it remains today at the center of the political competition between Russia and the West. In Russia the official propaganda did its job: according to the Russian Levada-Center (June 2013), 33 percent of Russians consider Georgia the most unfriendly country (Georgia was at the top of this list with 41 percent in June 2012). The Georgian government, and Georgian population are pro-Western now. According to the NDI polls, 70 to 80 percent of Georgians see Russia as a threat; 70 percent of Georgians want to have better relations with Russia, but not at the cost of reduced sovereignty, and their attitude towards NATO and EU is overwhelmingly positive.

Foreign Investment in Georgia: Opportunities Abound

While Georgia’s influence in the South Caucasus region is largely dwarfed by that of its energy-rich neighbor, Azerbaijan, positive relations between the two countries have ensured that Georgia has benefitted from significant inflows of foreign investment. Owing to recent political and military conflicts with Russia, however, levels of FDI in Georgia remain significantly below what they should be.

Tough Decisions Ahead: The Future of Europe

In April 2013, it became clear that Slovenia was nearing the cliff of fiscal collapse and was working to avoid becoming the fifth Eurozone nation to need a bailout. Initial analysis and statements from EU financial leaders suggest that Slovenia is not suffering from the same severity of troubles as Cyprus, the last troubled Eurozone nation to make headlines. However, the handling of the Cyprus crisis is still very fresh on everyone’s mind—seemingly manageable financial problems escalate when the national government responds too slowly or hesitantly, and EU authorities step in to impose unpopular and possibly counterproductive measures. There are questions over the future of the Euro, talk about Germany’s leadership through the crisis, calls for reform of the banking system, and protests against austerity measures and intervention by the “Troika.”

Debt and Instability: The High Costs of Secession in the Eurozone

The world economy has seen its waters poisoned by the European economic debt crisis, which has been an ominous shadow lurking over Europe and inhibiting the growth of global markets since 2009. States have struggled to maintain a consistent competitive standard for the Euro, which has thus far proven detrimental to European markets.

The European Monetary Union (EMU) denotes the fiscal coalition of 17 states that have adopted the Euro as their primary mode of currency. Several of these states—such as Spain, Ireland, and Greece—have demonstrated over the past two years that they lack the capacity to effectively integrate the Euro into their economies. Meanwhile, other states like Germany and Belgium outperform most EMU sovereigns. These radical economic disparities have polarized the Eurozone: weaker states have been characterized as agents of stagnation in the system, while the most efficient states exorbitantly raise the Eurozone’s competitiveness. This economic crisis threatens a global double-dip recession at the hands of European fiscal deterioration.

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