Around the World!

Posted on June 18, 2013 by Administrator

- By Chrisella Sagers Herzog

Welcome to Around the World! This week we feature a discussion on Edward Snowden and the NSA, a look at higher education in Nigeria, and more.

Joshua Foust Interview Interview: Joshua Foust, National Security Expert/Freelance Journalist
What does the NSA spying scandal mean for the state of intelligence in the United States? Is Edward Snowden a hero, or a traitor? The Diplomatic Courier sat down with Joshua Foust, freelance journalist and national security expert, in a special video interview. Watch the interview here!
Putin’s Russia vs. a Russians’ Russia Putin’s Russia vs. a Russians’ Russia
Russia needs a change, a modernization, and creative decision-making. The country’s diminishing role on the global stagewill no longer be tolerated by the Russian people. They do not need Russia’s Putin and Putin’s Russia any more–they need a Russians’ Russia. Read more about it here.
Avoiding the Middle Income Trap in China Avoiding the Middle Income Trap in China
The Chinese Communist Party has a vested interest in rapid growth. However, the rapid growth the country has seen since reform in 1979 cannot propel China through the dreaded “middle-income trap.” Read more about it here.
Who Benefits? Nigeria Jeopardizes the Future to Further Arguments of the Past Who Benefits? Nigeria Jeopardizes the Future to Further Arguments of the Past
All is quiet at the University of Igbere in Abia State, Nigeria. And tragically, it need not be. Though shelves are stocked and classrooms are fully furnished, the grounds at Igbere in southeast Nigeria lie eerily dormant. Read more about it here.

Around the Web

Are we all digital diplomats? Social media has given everyone a voice, and everyone can reach out across the globe. The Diplomatic Courier‘s Digital Diplomacy Forum attracted several thought-provoking discussions. We invite you to keep the conversation going at #DiplomacySM on Twitter!

This Week in History

1982: Argentine forces surrendered to British troops on the disputed Falkland Islands. However, Argentina still lays claim to the Islas Malvinas, and efforts at diplomacy and negotiation over the status of the islands–and the citizens living there who claim British citizenship–have stalled.

1987: U.S. President Ronald Reagan, during a visit to divided Berlin, challenged Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev to “tear down this wall.” His iconic speech is now–rightly or wrongly–credited by many as being one of the first cracks in the structure of the Soviet Union.

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Myanmar’s Future, Reform or Regression?

Posted on June 11, 2013 by Administrator

Myanmar- By Ryan Burkhart

Since 2011, Myanmar has undergone significant political and economic reforms. These reforms have drawn measured praise from Western nations, most importantly from the U.S. Sanctions on Myanmar have been considerably reduced, and President Thein Sein recently met with U.S. President Barack Obama in Washington last month. Accordingly, interest in Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, has increased dramatically. Last week, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace held a conference on what lies ahead for the transitioning Southeast Asian nation. Speakers included Lex Rieffel, a former U.S. treasury economist and expert on sovereign debt restructuring, and David Steinberg of Georgetown University, a specialist on Myanmar.

As with every country, Myanmar’s government policies and efforts have bright spots and not-so-bright spots. Lex Rieffel’s opening remarks covered the good, the bad, and the everything in-between of recent Burmese policy. As an economist, Rieffel believed that introducing a managed float of its currency was a “beneficial and big” move that Myanmar needed. Second, he stated that the recent debt relief package for Myanmar would be extremely valuable for continued growth. Unfortunately, he noted that economic reforms have yet to improve the lives of most of the people in the country. Myanmar’s recent rise is in contrast to the rise in other Asian economies, where household income in rural areas increased immediately due to policy changes. This is problematic because Myanmar will be holding elections in 2015 and there is uncertainty economic and political reforms will continue under new leadership.

With his opening remarks, David Steinberg was quick to point out that the military is ultimately still in control of Myanmar’s political future. However, the military is not a monolithic figure. He said, “Saying ‘what will the military think about this?’ is similar to a foreigner asking an American, ‘Well, what does Washington thinks about that?’ There are both hardliners and reformers within the military itself.” Steinberg posits that there is potential to reduce military control of the political system, in the next elections (if it is a fair election). He also contends there is potential for upward mobility from different parts of Myanmar society and that upward mobility will bring more people to the political system.

Both men were adamant that sanctions against Myanmar were futile and had failed. Steinberg strongly disagreed with U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell’s recent assessment that sanctions were the driving force behind Myanmar’s decision to reform. Both men also concluded that if Myanmar regresses on the political and economic front, after the 2015 elections, a return to sanctions would be the wrong course of action. Adding to his long list of analogies, Steinberg said, “You don’t rehabilitate a criminal after he leaves prison. You start trying to reform him before leaves and reenters society.”

Photo by Carl Parkes (cc).

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Around the World!

Posted on June 10, 2013 by Administrator

- By Chrisella Sagers Herzog

Welcome to Around the World! This week we feature a bright future in Serbia-Kosovo relations, a look toward the future with Iran, and more.

The Diplomatic Courier is now on YouTube! The Diplomatic Courier is now on YouTube!
We are thrilled to announce that the Diplomatic Courier is now featuring videos! Come check out our newest videos, including interviews of Ambassador Paula Dobriansky and Evan Kraus of APCO Worldwide for their insights into Digital Diplomacy, here.
Serbia Using Head, Not Heart, in New Kosovo Agreement Serbia Using Head, Not Heart, in New Kosovo Agreement
On April 19th, the governments of Serbia and Kosovo signed a historic treaty that will hopefully normalize relations between the two countries. Any progress made on the Kosovo front by Serbia will reflect well on their application for EU membership. Read more about it here.
In Syria, is The Enemy of an Enemy a Friend? In Syria, is The Enemy of an Enemy a Friend?
Nothing is ever black and white in the Middle East, and while we still do not have all the facts regarding Israel’s strikes, is the enemy of an enemy in Syria a friend? Read more about it here.
In Iran Negotiations, Time to Put Everything on the Table In Iran Negotiations, Time to Put Everything on the Table
Now is the time to place all of the United States’ cards on the table and engage in direct negotiations with Iranian leaders—ideally Khamenei himself and others within the inner circle of Iranian policymakers to minimize political opacity and the potential for miscommunication. Read more about it here.
Gulf States and the West: A Changing Region Creates Uncertainty Gulf States and the West: A Changing Region Creates Uncertainty
While the West seems to be focused on stabilizing and spreading democracy in the Gulf, Gulf States themselves are spreading aid and relief to countries stricken by war and instability. Read more about it here.

Around the Web

Former South African President Nelson Mandela may be in his last days, as it is reported that current President Jacob Zuma will visit him “discreetly” at the hospital where he has been undergoing treatment for a lung infection. The lack of reports indicating any improvement in the former president and activist’s health has led many to speculate he may not recover.

Are you following the Iranian Presidential elections? Voice of America has put together a great guide on who the candidates in the race are.

After the political damage brought about by Silvio Berlusconi’s shenanigans, it appears Italy is leaning back toward political stability. The center-left Democratic Party is leading in mayoral elections—a strong showing that could bode well for the stability of the national government. Whoever takes office will not have an easy time ahead of them, however. The Wall Street Journal reports: “On Monday, figures showed that Italy’s economy contracted more than expected in the first quarter of this year, shrinking 0.6 percent compared with the previous three months.”

This Week in History

1916: Mecca, under control of the Turks, fell to the Arabs during the Great Arab Revolt.

1929: The sovereign state of Vatican City came into existence as signed copies of the Lateran Treaty were exchanged in Rome.

1967: Israel and Syria agreed to a U.N.-arranged cease-fire that ended the Six-Day War.

1985: The Israeli army began to pull out of Lebanon after 1,099 days of occupation.

2000: Syrian president Haffez al-Assad died. His son Bashar assumed power.

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Photo Friday: North and South Korea Agree to Reopen Communication

Posted on June 7, 2013 by Administrator

Kaesong, North Korea

Photo by yeowatzup (cc).

- By Ryan Burkhart

On Thursday, it was announced that North Korea would soon reopen a Red Cross hotline with the South, which would allow the two governments to arrange the details for bilateral talks to be held in the next few days. Leaders in North Korea invited leaders from the South to talks on reopening the Kaesong joint industrial zone. Pyongyang expelled South Korean workers from the joint industrial zone earlier this year when relations soured, after the international community condemned North Korean ballistic missile tests. Officials from the North and South have not met since 2008, after North Korean soldiers shot and killed a South Korean tourist. However, the exact date for the future talks has not been set.

Earlier this year, North Korea’s 29-year-old leader, Kim Jong-un, ratcheted up tensions on the Korean peninsula. The young Kim threatened to “settle accounts” with the U.S. and put the country’s rockets standby. In response the Obama Administration did not bend to North Korean threats and flexed its military might in the region. In April, North Korea stopped South Koreans workers from entering the Kaesong industrial park, and removed all of its own workers as well.

Kaesong, a city north of the demilitarized zone, features a jointly-run industrial park, which gives South Korean companies access to cheap labor that is also fluent in Korean, while providing North Korea with foreign currency. The status of the industrial park has become an informal barometer on inter-Korean relations. When relations have been good, operations at the park run smoothly. When relations sour, work has come to a halt. The city of Kaesong is also important to Korean history. The city was the capital of the Koryo Empire, from which the name “Korea” derives.

In late April, just as situation seemed like it could not get any worse, news on North Korea seemed to recede from the headlines (barring a visit from former NBA star Dennis Rodman.) Then, two weeks ago, North Korea sent an envoy to China. The envoy, Vice Marshal Choe Ryong Hae, gave Chinese President Xi Jinping a letter from Kim Jong-Un. The letter indicated that North Korea was ready to rejoin nuclear disarmament talks.

Many countries have pushed China to press North Korea on giving up its nuclear arsenal. Politicians and analysts have argued that Beijing has more influence on Pyongyang than other government in the world.

Speculation abounds on what affect this positive news could have on the “shirt-sleeves summit,” currently being held in California, between U.S. President Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

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Video Wednesday: Israel’s Lesser-Known Missile Defense System

Posted on June 5, 2013 by Administrator

Video by the U.S. Missile Defense Agency.

- By Ryan Burkhart

In an interview last week, Israeli Air Force Colonel Zvika Haimovich described how Israel’s air defense corps has monitored every missile fired in the Syrian civil war. The Colonel further disclosed that Israel only has a few a seconds to determine if any Syrian missiles should be targeted. If Syria launches its ballistic missiles towards Israel, the country would deploy the Arrow II anti-ballistic missile to counter the threat. The Arrow weapons system, untested in battle, is the lesser-known defense system that has been designed to protect Israel from ballistic missiles.

The Arrow interceptors were developed by Israel with the U.S. providing nearly half of the funding. The U.S. and Israel have jointly developed ballistic missile defense technology since the late 1980s. While on different sides of the globe, both countries have faced adversaries in possession of advanced ballistic missile technology. The Arrow II interceptors were designed to counter theater (or tactical) ballistic missiles. Conversely, the American interceptors in Alaska and California have been designed against intercontinental ballistic missiles (long-range.) Currently, the IDF is the sole user of the complete Arrow system (including an interceptor, launcher, LCC, and radar).

This week’s video above, released by the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, shows the launch and trajectory of the Arrow III (the Reshef), the newest interceptor variant in the Arrow weapons system family. The Arrow III will extend the “envelope” or battlespace of defense around Israel and could successful defend the country from a potential Iranian ballistic missile attack, even nuclear-tipped missiles. After a recent successful test, Israel intends to accelerate the development and deployment of the Arrow III missile, due to rising tensions in the region. The interceptor has been slated for a 2014 deployment.

The Arrow weapons system counters different threats than Israel’s Iron Dome, which is also U.S.-funded. The much-publicized Iron Dome protects Israel from short-range rocket, artillery, and mortar fire. Hezbollah and other regional actors have frequently launched this weaponry towards Israeli cities. While there are critics who claim that Iron Dome’s 90 percent success rate is bogus, the U.S. Congress recently pledged more than half a billion dollars for future investment.

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Bringing Stability to Bahrain

Posted on June 4, 2013 by Administrator

Bahrain Protest-By Bryce Bytheway

Bahrain is a small island country found along the western shores of the Persian Gulf. For years Bahrain has been one of the United States’ greatest allies in the region. During the Iraq conflict Bahrain rescued more American soldiers from drowning than any other gulf country, and the small U.S. Navy base located there has played a crucial role. But that was some years ago. Recently, since the Arab Spring, Bahrain has been subject to political unrest and turmoil, and over fifty percent of the country’s citizens have taken to the streets in protests. What was once a country that many considered a role model for the Middle East has been shutting down internally and closing itself off for over five years.

Ms. Sarah Leah Whitson, director of the Middle East and North Africa division of Human Rights Watch, suggested that a lack of accountability at the highest levels of government is a cause for the unrest. When protests first started, the government used excessive military force to remain in control, and placed many of the political opposition leaders in prison. Whitson explained, “There cannot be political dialogue while the opposing political leaders are in prison,” and further explained that the leaders that caused so much of the unrest in the first place are still in power, with no accountability for their actions.

Bahrain is not a democratic government, but rather a constitutional monarchy, giving the citizens a much smaller voice in governmental affairs. Ambassador Ronald E. Neumann agreed with Whitson that something needs to be done, but it must be handled with great respect and care. Any reform done in the Bahrain government is going to have to be step-by-step and partial, at least at first. Citizens of Bahrain, and many others hoping to help ease the unrest there are afraid. “There are real reasons for fear,” explained Neumann, and “it’s not going to be easy.”

So what is it going to take to bring Bahrain out of turmoil? According to Ambassador Neumann it is going to take a lot of understanding and patience on our part, and the Bahrain government is going to have to relinquish some control to the people. Democracy does not happen overnight, but the country could prosper once again if it takes the necessary steps.

Photo by Mahmood Al-Yousif (cc).

Posted in Diplomacy, Human Rights, Middle East/North Africa, Security | Leave a comment

Around the World!

Posted on June 3, 2013 by Administrator

- By Chrisella Sagers Herzog

Welcome to Around the World! This week we feature a discussion of the mediation process in Syria, foreign policy of the European Union, socialism in Latin America, and more.

Why Annan Failed and Brahimi Struggles: The Challenges of Mediation in Syria Why Annan Failed and Brahimi Struggles: The Challenges of Mediation in Syria
From an academic perspective, mediation has been upheld as a promising mechanism to overcome deadlock in civil wars. So why has the joint UN/LAS mediation in Syria so far failed to achieve a negotiated settlement to the conflict? Read more about it here.
Latin American Socialism: Churning Along, Economic Failures Aside Latin American Socialism: Churning Along, Economic Failures Aside
Latin American socialism–for all the damage it has wrought–will not be suddenly undone by the death of Chávez or Raúl Castro’s transition from power. It is a deeply-ingrained set of laws, institutions, and incentives that keep parties in power, line the pockets of state-owned industries, and invest little in the social welfare of people that pose any threat to the status quo. Read more about it here.
From Herds to Homes From Herds to Homes
The sale of painstakingly crafted rugs has been a mainstay of the Afghan economy for centuries. Though accurate numbers are hard to come by, it is estimated that the rug industry is Afghanistan’s second largest employer after agriculture. Read more about it here.
A More Global European Union A More Global European Union
As the largest economy in the world, the European Union possess the know-how and the resources to go global. It is time for Europeans to give up the unsuccessful, inward-looking strategy, and to play a more decisive role in the world. Read more about it here.
Laying a Solid Cornerstone Laying a Solid Cornerstone
In a country with no shortage of challenges to surmount in the coming years, producing a strong foundation of educated young professionals will be fundamental to developing a strong civil society in Afghanistan in the years ahead. Read more about the latest efforts here.

Around the Web

Istanbul was rocked by protests over the weekend, sparked by the government’s decision to raze a park in order to build a mall. Occupy Gezi–a reference to the park’s name–soon began to resemble more of the protests from the Arab Spring than the Occupy movement, and “hundreds of thousands of demonstrators flooded the streets”, and photos of police brutality spread across the internet. However, it became clear as the streets filled with people that the protest was not over just a park, but rather was a referendum on the rule of Prime Minister Erdogan.

This Week in History

1946: The Italian monarch is abolished, and a republic is founded in its place.

1953: Queen Elizabeth II of Britain was crowned in Westminster Abbey, 16 months after the death of her father, King George VI. Her reign of 61 years is currently the second longest for a British monarch; only Queen Victoria has reigned longer at over 63 years.

1961: South Africa becomes an independent republic as it withdraws from the British Commonwealth.

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Markets Slump On China Manufacturing Data; Economic Reform Needed

Posted on May 31, 2013 by Administrator

Tokyo Stock Exchange- By Ryan Burkhart

Last Thursday, global markets fell due to an unexpected drop in Chinese factory activity. The Japanese stock market plunged more than 7 percent, the Nikkei’s largest drop since the tsunami and nuclear disaster in 2011; European markets also saw a substantial decrease in trading after the news broke. While the drop in factory activity is part of China’s current economic strategy, the amount of contraction startled global markets.

China’s new leaders must grapple with the same problems that have existed since Deng Xiaoping begun economic reforms in the late 1970s. China’s growth model is no longer efficient and reform is necessary. Today’s Chinese Communist Party must carefully reform its massive economy, while also maintaining job growth and preventing disturbances in the global economy it is now inextricably tied to.

After initially emerging from the 2008 financial crisis relatively strong, Chinese GDP growth rates have now slowed to lower than 8 percent; last quarter, the economy grew by 7.7 percent. The Chinese economy has not grown this slowly for more than decade. For years, the Chinese government, as well as economic and political analysts, have all contented that the country must maintain a significant economic growth rate to prevent widespread social instability. The Chinese Communist Party’s grip on power and adherence to “Confucian” stability has greatly influenced its economic policy since 1978.

Unfortunately, China’s growth model has reached the end of its utility. There is a debate whether or not China is following the “East Asian growth model” of its neighbors (or even if this model is similar to previous Western models). Regardless, China’s strategy of massive state-led investment into infrastructure and industry for its enormous labor pool has created huge amounts of debt, wasted resources (for example, empty cities), and too many factories for its traditional–and now-broke–consumers in the West. Furthermore, the future demography of the China no longer supports the current model. These are just a few, generic economic ills that Chinese leaders must remedy.

Thus, China’s leaders have battled each other over pursuing policies that stimulate and maintain short-term growth versus those that create long-term structural changes. During his time in office, Chinese President Jiang Zemin instituted major economic reform after the Tiananmen Incident in 1989. His successor, President Hu Jintao, presided over China during the 2008 financial crisis and delayed economic reforms in favor of a short-term policy stimulus. President Hu’s policies have been criticized by economic analysts on both sides of the argument. However, China’s newest president, Xi Jinping, has appeared to favor long-term reform. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang recently introduced a plan to reduce bureaucratic red tape in order to stimulate the market.

Optimism remains high that President Xi will continue to pursue economic reforms. Long-term structural reform is not only necessary for the Chinese economy, but for the world’s.

Photo by Stéfan (cc).

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Photo Friday: Iran’s Elections Approach

Posted on May 31, 2013 by Administrator

Iran elections - Azadi

Photo by Nima Fatemi (cc).

- By Bryce Bytheway

Iran is at it again. Amidst during the seemingly endless coverage concerning relations with Syria, political unrest, and of course Iran’s struggle to obtain nuclear technology, comes a critical Presidential election and a future possibility of peace and prosperity. It has become more important than ever to improve relations with Iran, and this election could prove to be the tip of the wedge that the world needs to gain footing in this turmoil racked country.

Iran is a theocratic Islamic republic consisting of both elected and appointed government officials. The Supreme Leader of Iran (Ali Khamenei) who serves for life and holds the real power, is in theory appointed by the “Assembly of Experts;” in practice, only one Supreme Leader–the current Ayatollah Khamenei–has had to go through such a process, and he was waved through as the chosen heir to Ayatollah Khomeini’s legacy. He serves as the head of state and appoints the leaders of the most powerful government posts, including the armed forces, radio and television, religious foundations, and members of national security councils. The President is elected by popular vote and serves a four year term. He is the highest state authority after the Supreme Leader, and is responsible for the implementation of the Constitution and the exercise of executive powers.

The elections this summer could not come at a more critical time. Iran is surrounded, and greatly affected, by the recent turmoil in Syria, Afghanistan, the Arab Spring, and the U.S.-occupied Gulf States in the fight against terrorism. Within Iran itself, the worst economic sanctions in its history and a government that seems content to ignore the international demands to halt its nuclear program are both affecting the populace. Iran’s new president will have to tackle these and other economic issues in order to lower inflation and the unemployment rate, as well as gain international trust. He will also have to work with the Supreme Leader to restore his trust in the President’s Office, after a rift between President Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader led to political turmoil.

Each presidential candidate must be approved by the Guardian Council in order to run; out of the 686 initial candidates who registered, only eight where approved by the council for the 2013 election. Out of these eight candidates, all of them are loyal to the Supreme Leader, and six are his direct appointees; thus protecting his interests, and removing the possibility of extreme renovation. Former President Rafsanjani, a reformist leader during the 1990s, was one of the candidates disqualified from the running. In a discussion concerning the future elections of Iran, Yasmin Alem, an expert on Iranian elections and domestic politics, said, “What we are ultimately left with is, competence is compromised for commitment and loyalty.”

Iran has never had truly free, fair, and competitive elections; and it appears that this election will not break tradition. This does not mean that there is no hope for a bright future however, and these elections come at a critical time. If Iran’s new president is willing to compromise with the Supreme Leader as well as other international powers, then Iran’s situation will slowly improve. This means a possibility of peace in the Middle East, a possibility of a stronger world economy, and a strengthening of international relations. The future of Iran is directly related to the future of the world.

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Embassy of Kazakhstan Celebrates Novels on Kazakh Culture

Posted on May 30, 2013 by Administrator

Abdi-Jamil Nurpeisov- By Bryce Bytheway

On the evening of May 22nd the Embassy of Kazakhstan hosted acclaimed author Abdi-Jamil Nurpeisov in celebration of his books recently translated into English: “Final Respects” and “Blood and Sweat.” The private event featured remarks made by His Excellency Ambassador Kairat Umarov and author Abdi-Jamil Nurpeisov, the guest of honor.

Nurpeisov was born in Kasakhstan in 1924, near the Aral Sea. He participated in the eastern front of World War II, and was one of few of his unit to survive the horrors of battle and later the pains of reconstruction. Kazakhstan has changed significantly in his long life, and he has lived to tell the tale of his people.

In “Final Respects,” Nurpeisov depicts in rich detail the life of a fishing village, and the tragedy of the shrinking and dying Aral Sea. The plot surrounds two childhood friends who find themselves on opposite sides of the issues surrounding this awful catastrophe.

“Blood and Sweat” is a sweeping tale about the vanishing way of life of Kazakhs in a small rural village. Within the pages of this novel, Nurpeisov seeks to reveal Kazakh culture to Western readers and unveil his people’s largely unknown history.

While speaking on his life and the desire to translate his books into English, Nurpeisov stated, “It has become clear to me that it is the greatest stupidity to close your mind to anything outside of what you have learned in the one tiny spot where you were born.” He explained, “It is easy to carelessly brush off any one thing, even a self-evident fact. But it is only a temporary deception of the self. Our lives are all interconnected and we are all stewards of the same magical earth.”

Nurpeisov’s words teach a wonderful fact that many people are content to ignore: what happens in regions on one side of the Earth affects the lives of those who live thousands of miles away. In his life and through his experiences, he has learned amazing and wonderful things—not only about Kazakhstan, but about all life on Earth.

Photo by Samuel Shaw.

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